Fewer Babies?

[TheCatsBlanket]

Not sure if this has been discussed before, sorry if it has but with the lockdown from late March, I was wondering if there will be fewer babies born at the beginning of 2021? I don't mean babies born to those who live together / married, but rather from the lack of new relationships starting up.
Worldwide there has to be fewer pregnancies doesn't there. Any medical folk here who can answer this?

[Guineapigbridge]

Callous. But nature always seems to have a way.

[Guineapigbridge]

A population that has a very high number of older people who don't work and who have high medical need and a very low number of working, tax-paying young people will struggle massively.

Perhaps this pandemic has a purpose

[Bikingbear]

Retraining opportunities should be available - and a push to tackle the widespread age discrimination.

That's so true. People need opportunities to retrain, and financial support to do it. Particularly if we want people to work to 68, they need work people can actually do. Many manual workers struggle with arthritis and dodgy joints to 65 nevermind 68.

[Rabbitholebonkers]

Depends. My sister waited absolutely months to get her implant renewed and my best friend is having the same predicament. Large city too. There will be some unplanned ones with the state of sexual health services at the minute.

[jambeforeclottedcream]

I know several babies due January- February far more than usual

But agree with OnlyFoolnMothers in that there will be fall as people won't be able to form relationships

[SleepingStandingUp]

@TheCatsBlanket

Thanks for all the answers and points of view. An interesting thought though to wonder what percentage of babies born in any normal year (just thinking UK as opposed to worldwide) are the result of new relationships or one night stands that would ordinarily have occured if pubs/clubs had been open and holidays abroad had been allowed where the booze flows freely.

I did think it might drive down the teenage pregnancy rate,

[BeingATwatItsABingThing]

@User158340

It's easy to say we have a shortage of nurses, teachers, doctors, joiners, bricklayer, steelfixers but why the heck are we not training more?

Because the masses are packing off to Uni at 18 to get useless degrees instead.

You need a degree for at least 3 of those.

[SheepandCow]

@Bikingbear

Sheep and Cow,
My logic has is the biggest issue the UK has is not investing and training enough young people.
Far too many end up in minimum wage no qualifications jobs, they struggle to get full-time work, and then they are being propped up by the benefits system.

It's easy to say we have a shortage of nurses, teachers, doctors, joiners, bricklayer, steelfixers but why the heck are we not training more?

And actually if the population drops a little that also solves the housing crisis, we don't have enough houses, so you either build more or have less people.

Yes you need working age people to pay for the retired people. But working age people are also paying for other working age people who are reliant on benefits because they have part time hours in a minimum wage job. Or they are run ragged trying to work 3 jobs.

I agree. Except that I'd add in middle-aged and older workers. People made redundant after 50 are all to often left to languish on unemployment benefits until they reach pension age. They're overlooked by employers in favour of younger (cheaper) employees.

Retraining opportunities should be available - and a push to tackle the widespread age discrimination.

[SheepandCow]

@User158340

It's easy to say we have a shortage of nurses, teachers, doctors, joiners, bricklayer, steelfixers but why the heck are we not training more?

Because the masses are packing off to Uni at 18 to get useless degrees instead.

That's thanks to Tony Blair's:
'Education Education Education'

[user1477391263]

As I understand, the BMA not the government restricts who and how many can train as doctors, nurses and the like, and as this organization is basically a trade union it is in their interest to restrict numbers.

[Nicknamegoeshere]

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss I agree. I'm excited to hopefully be marrying while the restrictions are still on (just waiting for a slight easing) - the guest limitations will be a huge bonus!

[User158340]

It's easy to say we have a shortage of nurses, teachers, doctors, joiners, bricklayer, steelfixers but why the heck are we not training more?

Because the masses are packing off to Uni at 18 to get useless degrees instead.

[Nicknamegoeshere]

I had a baby late May, conceived of course before Covid was an issue. I personally would have put ttc on hold had I known (even though I'm 40 now) because maternity leave during the lockdowns has been horrendous.

[IceCreamAndCandyfloss]

I'd also be interested to see what trends there are in the number of marriages in the coming years

I think there will be far less that get married.

Many want their “big day” so won’t bother if they can’t have that. Which really is a good thing imo as marriage is about so much more.

[Bikingbear]

Sheep and Cow,
My logic has is the biggest issue the UK has is not investing and training enough young people.
Far too many end up in minimum wage no qualifications jobs, they struggle to get full-time work, and then they are being propped up by the benefits system.

It's easy to say we have a shortage of nurses, teachers, doctors, joiners, bricklayer, steelfixers but why the heck are we not training more?

And actually if the population drops a little that also solves the housing crisis, we don't have enough houses, so you either build more or have less people.

Yes you need working age people to pay for the retired people. But working age people are also paying for other working age people who are reliant on benefits because they have part time hours in a minimum wage job. Or they are run ragged trying to work 3 jobs.

[User158340]

@Namechangedforthisoct2

I think the opposite and there’s going to be a baby boom

Like there aren't enough people on the planet already.

[juneybean]

There definitely won't be any babies born to lesbians in January due to lockdown and clinics being closed.

[SnuggyBuggy]

Lots of people were struggling to meet partners even before social distancing. I know several people whose only option has been online dating and it doesn't suit everyone. I'm no historian and don't know how couples formed in past generations but what we are doing today isn't working great and the shutting off of social events won't help.

I'd also be interested to see what trends there are in the number of marriages in the coming years.

[SheepandCow]

Long-term full-time WFH will have more of an impact than a temporary lockdown.

So many people, especially younger ones, meet their partners (and wider social circle) through work.

[SheepandCow]

[quote TheDailyCarbuncle]@Bikingbear because at a certain point, a lack of young people and an over abundance of older people becomes a serious economic problem. On a very basic level you need people who are starting out in their careers as much as people who are established - there needs to be a pipeline of new blood in every business. 'Overpopulated' as a lazy term that sees people as numbers - the composition of the population is important, including age, skill level, medical need etc. A population that has a very high number of older people who don't work and who have high medical need and a very low number of working, tax-paying young people will struggle massively. In order for there to be young adults available in twenty years' time, people have to be having babies in certain numbers now. If they're not, the young population will not keep up with the older population. It's already a serious issue in Japan, where the birth rate is extremely low. The obvious solution is to bring young people in from other countries, but people are such fuckwits about immigration that they'd rather tank their economy than admit that foreign workers are vital. The NHS already relies massively on non-UK born staff.

The lack of a strong, working-age population can decimate a country. Just look at Ireland post-famine or any African country that was plundered by colonists. It can take generations to recover. There seems to be an assumption that the UK will always have inward migration but post Brexit there may be a huge jump in people leaving and not coming back. That combined with a low birth rate can spell huge problems for a country. People seem to forget that one of the basic things needed for business is staff - no people, no business.[/quote]
There won't be an abundance of old people. Life expectancy is stagnating. The housing crisis, it's impact on mental health and the related physical health consequences, is undoubtedly contributing towards that.

We have hundreds of thousands of redundancies, and people already out of work.

Instead of continuing to exploit cheap labour (British born or not) we need to start paying living wages, provide decent working conditions, and offer access to stable affordable housing.

Also why assume people will want to keep emigrating here? There are more attractive alternatives.

Longer-term, robots are going to take lots of jobs (another reason why we need to look at universal basic income).

[Blossomhill4]

@Namechangedforthisoct2

I think the opposite and there’s going to be a baby boom

I think this too. I remember reading quite a few accident stories in the first lockdown people have more time than ever WFM must have perks!

[user1477391263]

I think it is likely that the short-term impact of COVID19 is being overestimated and the long-term impact is being underestimated.

There will be a drop in conceptions in the pandemic, although this will to a certain extent be counterbalanced by those people who decide "I'll go for it this year as this and next year are going to be shit years for work anyway."

I think the overall trend over the next decade is likely to be down, though, as there is so much gloom and worry in the air right now. We were warned for years that a pandemic might happen. Then it did happen. People are going to wondering what other black swan type events might happen too.

[Mishmased]

@iolaus I was in hospital this evening and the sonographer said the same!

[iolaus]

As a midwife - it's definitely gone up - the amount of women due from January - April is much higher than usual

[Mishmased]

@Hardbackwriter you're right, it is usually the people that have completed their family that come up with the 'oh couldn't be bringing a child into this mess'. There are so many on the ttc board that have been trying for a long time. Easy for people to give their opinion on something that doesn't affect them!
One thing I've come to realize is there is no right time. We've been putting off another baby for the past two years until the right time ie bigger house, better job etc. Now we have those things and at our 'right time' covid happened. There is no right time. Best of luck in your pregnancy.