If we don't get a massive spike in new cases after all the protests and people at beaches over past month, would this not tell us that the virus isn't in fact as contagious as we thought?

[Louise000000]

Just that's really, surely there would be a huge increase with tens of thousands of people not social distancing over past 3/4 weeks? Any thoughts?

[ShootsFruitAndLeaves]

beach visits won't spread the virus between strangers. possibly within small groups of friends, but they would have spread the virus far better getting together at home.

the protests will spread the virus better, but not as well as Stereophonics concerts, two of which took place in Cardiff which was by far the worst hit area in Wales for covid-19

[solidaritea]

Not necessarily. Even if tens of thousands weren't distancing, there are 66 million people in the UK. So the lack of a spike might mean something, but it also might not. It's definitely not right to infer that "no spike = no problem."

But if there is no spike, we could start lifting restrictions more quickly. On the contrary, if there is a small spike, we should slow down/reverse some of the lifting of restrictions. I think this is what government are doing, roughly (with exceptions when they want to distract us).

[fascinated]

Virus can only spread if someone has It. We need to know more about exactly where the cases are. Outside of institutions. And track track track any spread / outbreaks.

[Louise000000]

I'm so interested in the antibodies test to see if I've actually had it and had mild or no symptoms.
That makes sense then that the R has reduced which could explain no spike or no increase in cases.

[Keepdistance]

Lol at the chart. Interesting to see but
Theyve left out football and schools
There is no way a dinner party is on par with a plane
Plane travel i put at 9
-queues
-sat for hours with other people you dont know


Surely take away is higher than a walk
Queuing to get it. Somone else cooking it.

I think possible no spike due to age of protesters but once they pass onto their family. But if they are mainly city dwellers they may be more likely immune

[cantkeepawayforever]

There was that racing thing before lock down (Cheltenham)? Which was outside - did that lead to a spike despite being outside?

The graph of the Gloucestershire outbreak, compared with other neighbouring counties, is really interesting, because it is a very steep 'up and then down' affair, indicating that there was possibly a large single 'seed point' for infection [consistent in timing with the races] followed by lockdown. Graphs for geographically 'similar' counties in the same region are much more 'bouncy', with multiple lower spikes indicating a series of small waves of infection and consistent with there not being a single event at the start of the pandemic in the same way.

The races themselves are outside. Socialising in bars and restaurants both onsite and in the town, and transport such as buses suggested by a PP, are MUCH more likely hot, crowded, up-close-and-personal virus transmission possibilities.