If we don't get a massive spike in new cases after all the protests and people at beaches over past month, would this not tell us that the virus isn't in fact as contagious as we thought?

[Louise000000]

Just that's really, surely there would be a huge increase with tens of thousands of people not social distancing over past 3/4 weeks? Any thoughts?

[cantkeepawayforever]

There was that racing thing before lock down (Cheltenham)? Which was outside - did that lead to a spike despite being outside?

The graph of the Gloucestershire outbreak, compared with other neighbouring counties, is really interesting, because it is a very steep 'up and then down' affair, indicating that there was possibly a large single 'seed point' for infection [consistent in timing with the races] followed by lockdown. Graphs for geographically 'similar' counties in the same region are much more 'bouncy', with multiple lower spikes indicating a series of small waves of infection and consistent with there not being a single event at the start of the pandemic in the same way.

The races themselves are outside. Socialising in bars and restaurants both onsite and in the town, and transport such as buses suggested by a PP, are MUCH more likely hot, crowded, up-close-and-personal virus transmission possibilities.

[Keepdistance]

Lol at the chart. Interesting to see but
Theyve left out football and schools
There is no way a dinner party is on par with a plane
Plane travel i put at 9
-queues
-sat for hours with other people you dont know


Surely take away is higher than a walk
Queuing to get it. Somone else cooking it.

I think possible no spike due to age of protesters but once they pass onto their family. But if they are mainly city dwellers they may be more likely immune

[Louise000000]

I'm so interested in the antibodies test to see if I've actually had it and had mild or no symptoms.
That makes sense then that the R has reduced which could explain no spike or no increase in cases.

[fascinated]

Virus can only spread if someone has It. We need to know more about exactly where the cases are. Outside of institutions. And track track track any spread / outbreaks.

[solidaritea]

Not necessarily. Even if tens of thousands weren't distancing, there are 66 million people in the UK. So the lack of a spike might mean something, but it also might not. It's definitely not right to infer that "no spike = no problem."

But if there is no spike, we could start lifting restrictions more quickly. On the contrary, if there is a small spike, we should slow down/reverse some of the lifting of restrictions. I think this is what government are doing, roughly (with exceptions when they want to distract us).

[ShootsFruitAndLeaves]

beach visits won't spread the virus between strangers. possibly within small groups of friends, but they would have spread the virus far better getting together at home.

the protests will spread the virus better, but not as well as Stereophonics concerts, two of which took place in Cardiff which was by far the worst hit area in Wales for covid-19

[Gwenhwyfar]

@ScarfLadysBag

Here it is.

'From hair salons to gyms, experts rank 36 activities by coronavirus risk level

Four Michigan public health experts assess the risk various activities pose to spreading coronavirus. Dr. Matthew Sims, Beaumont Health director of infectious disease research, Dr. Dennis Cunningham, McLaren Health Care medical director for infection prevention, Dr. Mimi Emig, retired infectious disease specialist with Spectrum Health, Dr. Nasir Husain, Henry Ford Macomb medical director for infection prevention.

The list, below, assigns a score for activities from 1 to 10, with a 10 being the riskiest and a 1 being the least risky. The score is an average of scores given by the health experts, rounded to the nearest whole number.'

Obviously this is the US and just a small group of scientists but it's interesting nevertheless

This contradicts other sources though.
Why is a back garden BBQ as bad as an indoor dinner party?
Why is an office only as bad as walking outside in a busy area? If so, why can't I go back to the office?

This article also seems evidence based, but contradicts your image. Seems it's all still unknown.
www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/coronavirus-covid19-exposure-risk-catching-virus-germs?fbclid=IwAR2Q3hzC6CCLNg64mpCyHgFM88G6_M_g8r4RDs3B-tUKD4hcjXPGEsV98W0

[Gwenhwyfar]

"I have been both at a beach (as allowed) and at one of the protests (since it is important). In both cases me and everybody that I have seen there were well socially distanced. There may have been a few that didn't, but from my experience they were very much the exception."

I saw the video of the Colston statue being toppled and I could see NO social distancing in that video.
I know photos can give a wrong impression, but these were videos taken from very close to the statue.

[nettie434]

An Italian doctor, Matteo Bassetti, was quoted as saying he thought it had lost its potency. He is not a lab doctor but a clinician and based his statement on the patients he and his colleagues were seeing. He said that they were not seeing patients with the same severe symptoms as they did at its height. Of course he may be wrong but it might explain why we have not seen a post VE spike. That said, apart from Sweden, we still seem to have a lot of new cases and deaths each day compared with the rest of Europe.

[MRex]

@cyclingmad - 63,000 excess deaths in just March-May on top of the flu excess deaths is a huge number, it's actually just under double the expected deaths. Lots of us know nurses and doctors, who are trying to keep many patients alive who are very unwell. Lots of us also know people who've caught covid and been very unwell. Your theory doesn't hold up to actual facts, you're just personally missing information that would help you to understand what's going on.

[Pixxie7]

BashStreet where does it say about the virus not surviving as long in the heat?

[cyclingmad]

It's not beyond it to just be an extended flu season and that's why numbers are going down as we are now in summer.

Whole thing has been a giant experiment in compliance and control. And yet you do not want to possibly even consider it when you see information like this, information from doctors themselves that a person died of a heart attack but they have to put covid down as reason for death....like I said they arent even hiding it they just know people will refuse to believe it

[cyclingmad]

The number of deaths in January to March 2018 was higher than the number in each of
the previous five years (including 2015). The peak in deaths in January 2018 was not
quite as high as the peak in January 2015. However, in 2018 there were a series of
additional peaks in late February / early March, a period of particularly cold weather.

From ONS itself .......but we didnt have a so called killer virus in that year....so maybe just maybe we are having another yr like that and I'm not saying this covid virus doesnt exist but its certainly being blown up to be made out to be this big scary killer virus. And I'd you really recorded deaths by covid properly the numbers would be much lower.

We didnt shit things down back down in 2018 when we were an at all time high

[Bluntness100]

Op I imagine people who have a higher risk of being ill ie underlying health conditions, over 65 etc or live with someone who is, are not protesting, and if they know someone who is Ie don’t live with them, are able to socially distance from them in the main for two weeks after.

Remember the biggest symptom is no symptom. And for those with no underlying health conditions or below 65 the over whelming likely hood is no to very mild symptoms.

As such, unless they get tested, it’s unlikely you’d see a spike in cases, and likely very little change in hospital admissions. Yes there willl be some who do have conditions and are older, or who don’t socially distance from vulnerable they know, but I’d guess they are in the minority. Everyone knows the risks of this disease so most are able to make balanced decisions.

[Lynda07]

From what I've seen, the majority of the protestors were wearing masks. People on beaches were in small groups with distance from other groups. Nobody was getting up close and personal which is how the virus spreads. I think they would be extra careful.

There are bound to be exceptions but so there have been throughout 'lockdown', even on here we've had posters saying they were carrying on as normal and didn't care. Most people aren't so reckless with their or anyone else's health though.

It's all easing up now anyway with all shops opening.

[cyclingmad]

The virus has been around far longer than anyone knew and blown out of proportion with fear mongering

[Oblomov20]

Turns out all the threats of mor spikes was just over anxious scaremongering.

So can we please just get back to the job in hand and focus our attention on doing everything necessary to get as many kids back into school.

[itsgettingweird]

My understanding is that viruses maintain their contagion but transmission (the R rate) can be lowered through isolation and lock downs etc.

If we all did as we were (as a previous poster highlighted correctly millions and millions of people out on public transport and in theatre etc) the transmission rate would increase back to 3.

The R rate if measle is still something like 18. The contagion is not lowered. But transmission is lower due to herd immunity via vaccine.

[Northernsoullover]

@Oblomov20 planes are less risky than you might think. The air anyway. Its 50 percent fresh and 50 percent HEPA filtered. The risk comes from the surfaces and Mr Coughy McCougherson sat next to you.

[Tfoot75]

Out of the c1200 positive tests per day at the moment, actually only 3-400 of them are symptomatic, the rest are from research testing and nhs/care workers, so are asymptomatic.

I don't know the statistics, but a few thousand people protesting together outdoors is going to be about 0.0001% of the social interactions that a normal society would have, I've no idea why people think this sort of thing (or VE day or some people on a beach!) is going to cause some huge spike in infections! Even if a few people catch it, where else would they then pass it on exponentially? Unless they keep on attending protests. A single event doesn't cause a 'second wave'

[YinMnBlue]

The people I k ow who went to London demonstrations went in small groups that they were already in limited contact with and did not spend time talking with strangers. A fleeting minute past someone is less likely to transmit than 15 mins face to face conversation, isn’t it?

[LastTrainEast]

"isn't in fact as contagious as we thought?" it might prove that it isn't as contagious now as it was then. It's normal for viruses to mutate and lose their potency it seems. Perhaps we're still catching it but so mildly no one notices.

We can hope anyway.

[ohthegoats]

a massive spike in new cases

There won't be a 'massive spike' unless things are working in the way they were in March. Even with some protests happening, a tiny minority of the country went to them. A minority of the country went to VE day things too. Meanwhile in March, millions and millions of people were carrying on as normal, public transport was rammed, work placed rammed, Cheltenham, Stereophonics, no reduction in flights and Eurostar journeys etc.

What about 'a noticeable localised rise in new cases'? That would be enough to show something.

[fascinated]

A lot of outdoor BBQs involve shared food buffets, shared seating, a bit of alcohol after which people forget to social distance, and of course sharing toilets. The host (or hostess, probably) will touch the cups and cutlery/plates when clearing up which could have saliva on them etc.

[Oblomov20]

I bet you that there won't be a spike from VE Day.