Will other parts of the NHS be overwhelmed now?

[Crosswordocelot]

Part of lockdown was to protect the NHS and to stop everyone getting cv19 at the same time thus needing treatment.
But now I'm wondering about all the things that have been put on hold....wont those dept be swamped and overwhelmed when they need to "catch up" with 3 months of missed appointments and treatments? And will some people need more longer, more invasive or intensive treatment for something if treated at the first stage was minor but if left could become a bigger problem....?
I was talking to a dentist recently and they didnt know when they would be back to work but some colleagues had been made redundant. But they were talking about dental problems which would be a lot worse/harder to fix if left untreated.
As well as cancer patients.
I dont mean that lockdown shouldn't have happened but I'm just thinking that parts of the NHS will be overloaded with a backlog of patients for many more months.

the silence was ominous.
people have not been contacting the NHS,
for fear of coming in,
some posters may have been but the majority have been too fearful

Definitely will be a back log.
I spoke to my surgeon last week (was due surgery in April but it got cancelled).
I asked when it was likely to be - his answer was that surgery won't be getting underway for 2-3 months because of the new systems they have to put in place, then cases which will not need itu after (unfortunately I will need this) will be the first to be seen. He also said he's doing emergency surgery at the moment and he estimates with all the new procedures and ppe it takes an extra 1/3 of time per op which will reduce the amount he can do per session. So basically by the time surgery gets up and running we'll be hitting the flu season /plus predicted increase in COVID19 cases. It'll be years before lists are back to normal. I fear many will die waiting or end up having more invasive surgery or emergency surgery.

the silence was ominous.

Yes, indeed, the silence from various NHS places was indeed ominous. In the first couple of weeks, most phonelines had a recorded message saying phone 111. Then humans started answering the phones again, but they seemed to be random call centres who said they'd pass on messages and get someone to call back, who never did. My OH has only just managed to get a blood test appointment - the earliest they can do is July - that's been with calling every week for the past 10 weeks! Please stop the victim blaming, i.e. saying it's the patients who don't want treatment. The reality is that large parts of the NHS put up their shutters.

My dds cardiology appointments were cancelled. I've not had a reply yet.

Completely true and basic healthcare denied. Shocking

Mental health as they stopped all routine services in my area.

I have bipolar and deteriorated badly without my usual supports which meant I then needed GP appointments and then two emergency phone appointments with a psychiatrist in a week.

They have now adjusted my medication and put in weekly phone calls.

I know others have deteriorated mentally right now, and others been discharged from hospital who still need to be there.

Yes it’s interesting the way it’s been painted that patients just stopped presenting. Actually how could they present for treatment when the public were clearly told not to even ring 111 and also constantly told the NHS was being overwhelmed. The message was everyone has to stay home and stay the hell away from any healthcare facility.

@missyB1

Yes it’s interesting the way it’s been painted that patients just stopped presenting. Actually how could they present for treatment when the public were clearly told not to even ring 111 and also constantly told the NHS was being overwhelmed. The message was everyone has to stay home and stay the hell away from any healthcare facility.

And as people have experienced here GP receptionists fobbing off people ringing for help and if they do decide to help merely booking an "advice call"

I desperately need to see a dentist.
As I’m not in pain (tooth in questions has a root canal but have completely fallen apart so just a hole in my gum) they won’t give me an emergency appointment in the hub. Recommended toothypegs or using the wax of a babybel to fill the hole!

So I’m basically stuck waiting for it to get bad enough to need antibiotics, get a few rounds of those then be judged in enough pain to get an emergency appointment and wait for one of those.

Or.

Wait for the dentist to reopen, where my name is already on a waiting list for an appointment.

Months either way by the looks of things.

How many people are in my position or worse? If I’d been able to be seen at the start it would have been a small filling. Now I’m going to lose the tooth.

Maybe not 80% in our dept, but more than half of clinic patients refused to come in, and as per last week, are still refusing

After the flu epidemic of 17/18 loads of hospital services were delayed by several months. Although we didn't have a lockdown, the medical urgency was actually quite similar. Similar problems, similar vulnerable groups, and actually, so far, a not dissimilar number of deaths. The main difference to date seems to be the longer rehabilitation period for serious cases, which isn't unusual for a newer type of infection.

Interesting though how many people are saying they can't get GP support - nearly all the GP's I know are turning around appointments faster (albeit in new ways) and are sitting on their hands a lot of the time because people "don't want to bother them when they are busy", so they aren't approaching them for help when they ought to. That is a much bigger worry for many.

I work in a hospital maxfacs department

If you read the thread on 'do you know anyone whos died' thread you will see people catching covid from hospitals and dying. Hospitals are not particularly safe environments, things like flu/noro and now corona spread like wildfire.

We have still been seeing cancer patients, all our cancer surgery has still gone ahead in the local private hospital. Our theatres have been taken over for covid wards in the hospital so we actually cannot do our routine surgery

Our cancer reviews have been over the phone but anyone who wishes to be seen has been seen.

Our waiting rooms are tiny, theres no way you can safely fit a full socially distanced clinic.

Dental work will decline, however it actually takes quite a long time for a tooth to decay. Your not going to get a tooth needing a small filling ending up with an extraction in 3 months. I dont think it will be possible to go back to normal just like that, so i think we will build up gradually. But our waiting lists will be insane.

I think its unfair to say radio silence from the NHS, I have spent the majoritu of my time on the phone to patients (when not dealing with A&E emergencies). As have most of my colleagues.

But it is true people dont want to come in. Its relatively safe at the minute for a vunerable person to come see us but with a full clinic it wont be. Id like to see them now rather than later tbh

@EnlightenedOwl I agree with that but it wasn't just a government message, the media publishing some HCPs posting videos that went viral massively increased that.

And I am a HCP but think there should be restrictions on what HCPs can post because they massively influence the public. A lot of people won't necessarily listen to government advice but they see a tearful HCP saying they've had to hold dying patients hands today so please stay home or I went to the supermarket after a long shift and couldn't get food....we saw a national and disproportinate response.

I've had 2 surgeries postponed. One was meant to have been done within 4 weeks from the end of February, of course that's not happened. Apparently I fit the criteria for it to have been done in the private hospital where the surgeons aren't using the available capacity.

My ENT appointment was cancelled but they did that one on the phone and it was actually better than any of the face to face ones I've had. It was a different doctor for a start, who actually listened to what I was saying, and I wasn't rushed in and out in 5 minutes.

I had a follow-up from my pain consultant on the phone last week. She'd obviously been using the extra time she had available to her to look through my notes in more depth and as a result asked if I'd like some Botox for my migraines, which I would, so I'm going on Friday because no one wants to go. DH thinks I'm mad but he doesn't suffer from migraines and he can wait in the car.

Dh had his long awaited ‘urgent’ ENT appointment last week. It was supposed to happen in March. He called them a few days before to double check it was still on & what precautions they would like him to take - does he need a mask, where should he wait etc? - whoever answered the phone was bemused he would ask but reassured him that it was all fine ... hooray!

He booked the morning off work & turned up to be told they weren’t actually seeing anyone face to face, he should have known that & someone should contact him in the future. We’re still hoping he doesn’t have sinus cancer but yeah go NHS we love you & if he dies I’m sure it will be his fault somehow.

Yes, for a while too I would think. It will be 'interesting' (in a very morbid way of course) to find out quite how many lives and such shutting down everything has cost. I suspect, though hope I am wrong, that long term, lockdown and such will have caused more issues than it 'solved'. I don't really see another way though.

All my appointments have been cancelled also, I would have been happy to go, infact some of them I begged to go to as have been waiting for months for the initial appointment. It being made out that patients just dont dare go to appointments by so many is annoying, when it seems thats not the case at all.

I don't think things will ever fully go back to normal.

I work as admin in community nursing team and it went eerily quiet for a couple of weeks and now it is busier than ever with lots of new referrals.

Also, our nurses were all made to do a course enabling them to verify death as the GP's were point blank not going out to any patient for any reason and were video calling end of life patients and their families.
Now that the nurses have been trained to do the vod, that will be another of their jobs from now on and the gp's won't do it again.

@TheOriginalNutty

I don't think things will ever fully go back to normal.

I work as admin in community nursing team and it went eerily quiet for a couple of weeks and now it is busier than ever with lots of new referrals.

Also, our nurses were all made to do a course enabling them to verify death as the GP's were point blank not going out to any patient for any reason and were video calling end of life patients and their families.
Now that the nurses have been trained to do the vod, that will be another of their jobs from now on and the gp's won't do it again.

Some GP practices really have not behaved well.

@AhGoGo if you cover it with babybel wax or temporary filling material that will prevent bacteria entering the root canal system, which should prevent an abscess. So you hopefully avoiding antibiotics.

A root filled tooth is already pretty compromised, if its broken to gumline now its likely that it would have required much more than a small filling at the start. Teeth break because they have decay undermiming the tooth, or because they have unsupported tooth tissue. Either way a small filling doesnt fix it

Dentists are hopefully reopening on the 8th, it will take time to get back up and running again but it shouldnt be too long until you can see a dentist.

After the flu epidemic of 17/18 loads of hospital services were delayed by several months. Although we didn't have a lockdown, the medical urgency was actually quite similar. Similar problems, similar vulnerable groups, and actually, so far, a not dissimilar number of deaths. The main difference to date seems to be the longer rehabilitation period for serious cases, which isn't unusual for a newer type of infection.

Why on Earth is there constant comparison to this, which was over 100 years ago, when there's no similarity anymore than there is to the Great Plague of 1348? There were not 'similar' vulnerable groups, that form of influenza killed more young people than not, there was a world war going on for years, there was no socialised health care, poverty was massive and millions lived in slums with no indoor plumbing, malnutrition was common, there was no treatment for most illnesses and none for virulent pneumonia, no antibiotics, they didn't even know it was viral in nature (they guessed) because they didn't have powerful enough microscopes.

It's not even the same kind of virus!

Lania . I really hope he is okay. I think it's utterly shit how every other illnesses besides Covid has been nearly thrown under a bus.

Husband had a leg problem got an appointment next day, I drove him down, he queued up went in had a blood test, they rang back same night with result, went next day queued up got pills. Couple of days later went to hospital for a scan, hardly anyone there.

Live in rural area very lucky practice is very good.

@UncleFoster

Thanks for your reassurances. A massive chunk of said tooth fell out this afternoon so it does help to read.

The tooth first broke second week of lockdown and if it had been fixed then I probably could have got a crown and saved the tooth. Unfortunately I don’t see anything other than full extraction now so that’s why I’m a little upset.

Also in Scotland so the dentists aren’t opening from the 8th. By phases it could be as late as August (!!!) but everything crossed it’s sooner.

Is what it is.

Why on Earth is there constant comparison to this, which was over 100 years ago, when there's no similarity anymore than there is to the Great Plague of 1348?

I might be missing something, but I took the post to mean the flu epidemic of 2017/18..rather than the one ages back?

Seen both sides here. My Rheumatologist told me (in a telephone consultation) that he was being prevented from seeing me face to face by hospital management and my out of control autoimmune disease cannot be treated until they reopen for outpatients.
On the other hand DS is due to be admitted to a private hospital this week for surgery on the NHS that was cancelled in March.

The thing is the wards were full of sick covid patients who didn't warrant ICU. I can't imagine the logistical difficulty separating non covid from covid patients although we now do have covid/non covid wards apparently.
Our ICU was massively expanded over 4-5 wards, surgical ones in our case and we seriously needed them, the demand was that great. Staff and equipment were requisitioned from these wards and theatres to help out. We borrowed something like 30 anaesthetic ventilators from theatres, may have been more. We've still got some of that equipment and our ICU continues to occupy some of those wards as we are still having covid patients so non essential surgery I suspect is pretty non existent. The trouble is we are quiet at the moment but keep having spikes of covid admissions. The other night we had 3. We could theoretically move all the patients back into our normal 8 bedded ICU and open up the surgical wards again but that would mean mixing covid/non covid ICU patients which isn't ideal. Equally if there is a second wave where do all the patients go when we are full ? I can understand why management are dragging their feet tbh particularly as lockdown has been relaxed