Do we need a stricter lockdown?

[Gingerkittykat]

On my Facebook feed today I've had one person post pics of her new hair that her friend helped her do (They don't live together) and my cousins met up for a socially distanced walk (ie stayed 2m apart) and they walked past a friends house for a chat. There were three drunks walking along my street, I'm guessing they didn't live together and even if they did there would be no reason to go out.

My DD also got a phone call from my friend asking for help to set up her friends new phone, the friend was there in the livingroom with her.

These are all sensible people normally who are just getting fed up of lockdown and doing their own risk assessments.

I can't decide whether or not this means we should have a stricter lockdown like France to make people stick to it or we need to lighten up and just let people get on with it.

I've noticed less of the posts with people screaming that people going out are killing others too.

[Peggysgettingcrazy]

The economy will be equally fucked if the R goes over 1 again.

It doesn't have to go over 1.

We need to find the balance. A stronger lockdown, followed by people coming out will raise the R rate, then.


Full lock down, can't be a long term plan. The long term plans needs to be the new normal.

Sacrificing the econmony completely, will not save lives.

We need to find a new normal. Not the old normal, because we will be fucked.

A stronger lockdown is a gamble. Its all a gamble. Its all opinion and conjecture.

A strong lockdown will result in the economy being fucked and deaths. No lockdown will mean covid deaths.

We need to find a balance.

Some of you will be fine, some will die. Simple as that.

That's the same outcome for a full lockdown. This whole situation will lead to deaths. It doesnt matter to the families why their loved ones died. Dying of covid is no more of a loss for the family, than dying because because you didn't get your cancer treated in time.

[Freethefrogs]

As long as the shielding group continue to be able to WFH , stay on furlough , receive govt grants for the duration the govt tells us to remain shielded

They won't. There isn't enough cash.

Sooner or later people are going to have to go back to work whether they want to or not, that is the sad reality.

[Ilets]

Yes that is exactly it ... 'the hysteria they have created'

[Inkpaperstars]

I don't think we need a stricter lockdown, though obviously a stricter lockdown is a shorter lockdown in terms of getting to the point where we can start to reopen with hopes of keeping R below one. I just think we need to be guided by the numbers.

You can be very confident that we will not reach a point where the govt say, well yes it would be economically better to open up now but we must save people from any more covid deaths. No. The govt are thinking of the economy, which they recognise will be utterly destroyed by the exponential growth of the virus. I am not saying they don't care about deaths from covid, but obviously they are looking at the bigger picture too.

Why do feel deaths from covid are more devastating than the deaths that will result, in complete lockdown and fucked economy?

They don't, not at all. But they are deaths that unless
R is below one, will grow exponentially. I actually sat down and wrote out some examples of exponential growth, it really focuses the mind!
If the virus is growing exponentially, then almost all the deaths that arise as a side effect of lockdown....delayed and absent medical treatment, economic collapse etc, will occur as a side effect of a virus ravaging the country.

The timing matters, because the balance of that will change all the time. But that is already being taken into account, no one wants lockdown to go on longer than it has to. There will be ongoing infections and deaths after lockdown, no one is suggesting we lockdown as a society until a vaccine or drug therapy. That new normal is accepted but they are hoping to have it at controlled levels. I don't know if that can work, but it's the aim.

[Freethefrogs]

Inkpaperstars just to say thank you for your posts which are really helpful and measured.

[Inkpaperstars]

I don't know if I am really understanding things or talking sense but thank you Frogs, kind of you.

[TotorosFurryBehind]

No, we need to lift the current one. Every week in lockdown will extend the coming recession by months/ years.

We are all going to have to get it sometime.

[Inkpaperstars]

Interestingly in Chris Whitty's recent lecture on covid for Gresham college, which is on iplayer and YouTube, he said that over the whole epidemic, even if there is no vaccine, a high proportion will not get it.
He didn't really go into why.

[LastTrainEast]

In the short term if people are exposed there are 3 options.

#1 they just get over it. That is most people.

#2 they survive with ICU treatment

#3 they die regardless (a smaller number)

If we just abandon lockdown as some idiots demand and everyone gets sick at once then we won't be able to treat all of #2 so they will die as well.

We need to let people out to work to keep the economy going, but that should be instead of the arseholes who want to go out for fun. The more they stay in the more essential people can go to work.

[Gingerkittykat]

I've got very mixed feelings about ending lockdown. I know people's mental and physical health is suffering as well as the horrific economic impacts.

I am personally scared because I am diabetic and they make up 7% of worldwide deaths. I'm relatively young and otherwise healthy and don't have any of the comorbidities like kidney or heart disease so am I best just getting the virus and seeing what happens? It is inevitable most of us will get the virus if a vaccine is not developed so should we just let it happen.

There are so many conflicting stories out there from the people in their nineties surviving to the tragic death of the 28 year old pregnant nurse so it is hard to know what to believe.

I went to the beach in the first wave of lockdown, it is a deserted beach and I felt guilty about the 15-minute drive and had someone have a go at me for non-essential travel. I know I am planning to go again soon and won't feel any guilt.

[SpeedofaSloth]

No.

[PineappleDanish]

No we don't need a stricter lockdown. Things are going to start gradually easing from here on in, except for people who are shielding.

If you don't want to leave the house then don't. Nobody's forcing you. If you want to stay inside until Christmas, seeing nobody, then you can do that too. But just because some people are indulging in lockdown misery Olympics doesn't mean the rest of us should.

[sanealaddin]

I can't wait for it to be lifted. This is not a life. I'm self employed but my business has been destroyed by this, at least in the short and medium term, so I need to find myself a job. I need to earn a living. I don't see life going back to how it was for a while, but I think we need to keep moving forward.

[P1nkHeartLovesCake]

No we don’t and it’s not going to happen!

Like it on not we are now on our way to ease the lockdown we have

I’m glad to live in a country that done a soft version, I never want to live in a country where we have soldiers on the street, shopping policed, children not allowed out for exercise. The soft version worked our nhs has not been overloaded by Covid 19 so far and that was the aim

Keeping people away from family and friends is not natural and people aren’t going to do it much longer. If we want any kind of economy left we also need to get business back open and making money

[ToffeeYoghurt]

I see the many additional deaths and economic chaos of a second wave to be more misery Olympics than a slightly longer first lockdown. We all have different views.

How do businessess get back to normal during a pandemic? Wishful thinking won't make Covid go away or become any less contagious or deadly. We can't return to normal life, not yet. We all want to but wanting something doesn't make it happen.

It's worth bearing mind those pushing for a premature end to lockdown are billionaires. They live on private Islands. The risks taken won't be their risks. They won't be on crowded public transport, cramped open plan offices, busy schools. They're also rich enough to afford the financial loss from the second wave economic damage.

[Peggysgettingcrazy]

@Inkpaperstars you have quoted me and then talked about balance.

The poster I was addressing believes a stronger lockdown is needed and deaths from anything, other than covid are just collateral. Which is why I wrote the sentence, you have quoted.

It is all about timing and balance. I didnt argue for lift down being lifted or going back to the old normal. But against a full lockdown being implemented.

[ToffeeYoghurt]

I wouldn't say our halfhearted lockdown has worked. Certainly not for those most affected, including the BAME community. Not for all the healthcare workers and other frontline staff who have died.

We have one of the highest death rates in the world. Have people seen how other countries are viewing us? Some are talking about when they reopen to tourists (not yet). They won't be letting people in from the UK. Quite rightly.

The NHS only has capacity because people are being turned away from hospital. They're dying at home or only admitted at a stage when survived is less likely.

What's the point of returning to work just for a few weeks? Before the inevitable second lockdown. How economically disruptive!

How do businesses run with half or more of the workforce off sick at the same time? Some dead. Who cares for patients Covid or not when HCP are off sick or dying? How do people get around when transport workers are off sick or dead? What happens to the power and energy supplies when workers are off sick or dead?

We tried the wish it all away approach in January and February. Why not learn from our mistakes and not repeat them by rushing end of lockdown and bringing about a second wave.

[Inkpaperstars]

I am sorry @Peggysgettingcrazy, I must have missed the full context.

[ToffeeYoghurt]

@Gingerkittykat I'm sorry you're finding it difficult. It's understandable. It's very hard for us all.

You're allowed to drive locally for exercise. Don't worry about that. As long as you're socially distancing you're fine.

Try not to panic. Despite a few posts here, polls show the majority of the public understands contagion and we won't be ending lockdown too soon. You have a much lower chance of catching it whilst we're in lockdown.

The government will also be aware of the economic damage premature end to lockdown would cause, the disruption of stop, start, stop, start. The Bank of England governor has warned about this.

Despite pressure from the very rich (from afar) who can afford the risks, I think the government might have learnt from mistakes made several months ago. Presumably they're also keen to avoid a new racism issue so soon after the windrush scandal. Since it's disproportionately affecting the BAME community, any early end to lockdown (and the resulting second wave) brings a potential for future legal action over indirect race discrimination. Likewise sex discrimination as it's affecting men more than women.

We need to be sensible and cautious but don't panic. Keep taking precautions, take comfort from the fact it's unlikely we'll end lockdown too soon (despite attempts by some with vested interests and little personal risk).

It's not all hopeless. Waiting longer means reducing the spread. The virus can only infect so many people in lockdown. We are also buying time. To research. We're learning new things about the virus everyday. Buying time matters and it helps us fight this. Aside from good progress with the vaccines, we have seen promising drug trials. So far they seem fairly effective when given early.

[Peggysgettingcrazy]

@Inkpaperstars its fine. I just wanted make clear I don't think death from covid is fine and we should just leave them to it.

I just think we need balance. We need to work out what the new normal looks like.

[imsooverthisdrama]

I agree what would be the point now , the rate is falling lockdown worked . It could be argued that a tougher but shorter lockdown at the beginning may have been affective but I think we had the right balance .
The nhs haven't struggled as much as they thought they would do that is good .
My opinion slowly relax lockdown still with social distancing but can see maybe 2 or 3 people from another household.
Still wfh if possible
Staggered working hours for those that can't wfh
Other shops / garden centres opening
Recycling centres opening- some have opened but with strict rules .
Parks open etc
And schools but again staggered .
To talk about bars / restaurants/hairdressers etc maybe a few weeks after but again with some social distancing if possible.
I honestly think it will be relaxed and if not I feel a lot of people are less and less supportive of lockdown. It does need to be relaxed although carefully.