Do we need a stricter lockdown?

[Gingerkittykat]

On my Facebook feed today I've had one person post pics of her new hair that her friend helped her do (They don't live together) and my cousins met up for a socially distanced walk (ie stayed 2m apart) and they walked past a friends house for a chat. There were three drunks walking along my street, I'm guessing they didn't live together and even if they did there would be no reason to go out.

My DD also got a phone call from my friend asking for help to set up her friends new phone, the friend was there in the livingroom with her.

These are all sensible people normally who are just getting fed up of lockdown and doing their own risk assessments.

I can't decide whether or not this means we should have a stricter lockdown like France to make people stick to it or we need to lighten up and just let people get on with it.

I've noticed less of the posts with people screaming that people going out are killing others too.

[leckford]

If you live in an area with a high number of cases it should stay in place but the longer it goes on the more people will ignore it. The rate is very low over most of the South/south west. 0.5% accordingly to the COVID 19 app I update every day so it should be lifted especially for outdoor things but not totally. I live in a rural area and people have to get on with their lives, farming looking after animals etc.

[AmelieTaylor]

@DaphneduM

You are not 'forbidden' to look after your grandchild anymore than anyone else is currently 'forbidden' to mix households.

It's not about his risk -it's about YOUR risk. Obviously it depends on your health and age whether that risk is high or low, - but the guidelines are to protect the grandparents, not the children.

There is still so much unknown about whether children do pass it on or not, but especially once your daughter returns to work having your GS could be a risky exposure for you.

& you could pass it into your daughter via your GS, depending on what contact you are having with others & shopping etc.

However in terms of CV that's a long way off & id try not to worry about it now 🌷

[AmelieTaylor]

@PhilCornwall1

But it's illogical to bankrupt people who were living just fine before all this. The fallout from this I think will be worse than the virus

Two separate conversations. I was 'replying' to the oysters who said isolation doesn't stop the virus spreading

[AmelieTaylor]

'Oysters'?? Posters

[nellodee]

The closer you are to someone, the more of their droplets you will breathe in. The longer you stay in their company, the more of their droplets you will breathe in. Since R0 for this isn't much higher, I would assume that you have to reach a certain viral load before you contract the disease. The further away you are, the less likely you are to contract it. Plenty of studies show the virus travelling further than 2m.

Whether you think the aim of the government's strategy is to save lives or protect the NHS, whichever goal you think they have, the means of achieving this is by keeping R under 1. The end result is the same in both cases.

We have a budget for R, rather like we have a monthly budget for our own accounts. Meeting in small groups of trusted individuals is a very small outgoing, I would imagine, like buying a packet of crisps from the local shop. The problem is, we need to make sure we can "afford" our big outgoings, like opening schools, or public transport. If we fritter our "disposable income" on crisps and Costa coffees, we may not be able to afford the bigger ticket items.

I think that is going to be the trade off we have to consider. Do we want lots of small "treats" or do we want to "save up" for something bigger?

[Thisdressneedspockets]

No. Nearly 7 weeks in and with mental health and physical fitness levels crumbling, it would be a disaster.

I think people are more likely to continue to be compliant, of the is an exit plan. With no end in sight, it's starting to feel pointless.
The main thing is that the most vulnerable are protected. I don't want to see a plan that forces children in families that need to shield fleeced back into school, ditto for people who work. The govt needs to think very carefully about how to achieve this.

[AmelieTaylor]

@leckford

farming looking after animals etc

They have been able to do this all along.

[etopp]

Not bloody likely.

[Doingitaloneandproud]

NO. It needs to be relaxed in phases and we need to learn to live with this. It isn't going to go away, You cannot sustain a lockdown forever; it is not a life

[Mintjulia]

No, the UK polices by consent, a tighter lockdown would require policing by the army. We aren’t a militarised state.

And, with empty beds the nhs can cope with a few more cases, so can cope with a small % who break the curfew and get sick.

We have to live with this virus, we can’t hide at home for ever.

[disorganisedsecretsquirrel]

It's all very well for the gung-ho to be keen as mustard for us all to 'just get it' and 'live with it'.

Unfortunately, for many of us, this will mean almost certain death. Surprisingly, I do not want this either for myself or children.

Contagious epidemics do not go away either through ;

Boredom
Wishful thinking
Just catching it.

Anyone who believes this is an imbecile. Simple as that.

My 42 year old neighbour, mother of 3 under 10s.. wfh and living in a rural county with less than 500 diagnosed cases - is dead. Died 2 weeks after lockdown after 10 days on a ventilator. No underlying health problems.

Personally I believe we need at least another 3 weeks where the lockdown is enforced by both the police and public opinion. It's our best chance of reducing the R below 1 for a sustained period.

[Freethefrogs]

Unfortunately, for many of us, this will mean almost certain death

How is that; for what group is there a 99% mortality rate?

I personally know a 75 year old with an underlying health condition who has just come out of hospital having had it - he didn't die.

[Tfoot75]

There's zero possibility of this, as we have come through the peak and at no point has the NHS been overwhelmed. At this point after 6 weeks of lockdown, the number of cases in the community excepting key workers etc is going to be incredibly small (obviously, that was the whole point of the lockdown).

[Freethefrogs]

My point being that anecdotal evidence is no use in this situation.

[disorganisedsecretsquirrel]

My point is that the vast majority of people being keen for everything to get back to normal - simply have no real life experience of the devastating effect of this illness. It's not affected them, therefore it doesn't really exist.

Freethefrogs
Not sure where you think I said 99% mortality rate. I said 'for many of us, it would mean almost certain death. As part of the shielding cohort with a predisposition towards pneumonia and sepsis, it matters very little that the NHS would have capacity to treat me - if there is simply little they can do.

[Inkpaperstars]

Good point @nellodee

It's all about R.

It doesn't matter what points are made about jobs, economy, mental health etc because everyone agrees but if R goes above 1 those are quickly gone again anyway.

It doesn't matter how much capacity the NHS has because if R goes above 1 that will be quickly gone again.

Basically people can feel and say what they like, but it's a mathematical sum and the reality of it is immoveable.

Lockdown is about more than just temporarily sparing the NHS, it is about getting numbers down enough to be kept low with the right package of measures. Is that doable? I don't know, esp with poor compliance, but it is the goal.

[Peggysgettingcrazy]

Personally I believe we need at least another 3 weeks where the lockdown is enforced by both the police and public opinion.

Public opinion? Not fucking likely. The most vocal about their opinions are talking shit. Like you cant buy Easter egg, hair dye etc. Or you can only go out to exercise for an hour etc. These people are making it worse.

My point is that the vast majority of people being keen for everything to get back to normal - simply have no real life experience of the devastating effect of this illness. It's not affected them, therefore it doesn't really exist.

Personally, for me you are wrong. I know exactly what this does.

A stronger lockdown will result in a ruined economy, which leads to more deaths. Lockdown is already causing deaths. Peolle haven't stopped having heart attacks. But a lot less people are phoning for medical help.

Why do feel deaths from covid are more devastating than the deaths that will result, in complete lockdown and fucked economy?

It sounds like, because you have been personally impacted by covid, you have forgotten about the people dying as a result of how we are dealing with it.

[DanielleHirondelle]

@disorganisedsecretsquirrel
I agree with you.

[Ilets]

I've had it, as have my family, or we assume we have as we had contact with someone diagnosed and then got symptoms. I've had far worse colds frankly, never mind flu, wouldn't have paid it any attention normally. My friend was really ill with it for two weeks, like flu.
It's rife where I live. I really wish as a population we showed more courage, like Sweden, and accepted a bit of risk in our lives. You're all going to get plenty of risk in your lives once we can't afford cancer treatments or expensive medications as our economy goes through the floor. Be brave now. We can currently afford to shield the most vulnerable if the rest of us get back out and back to work.

[PhilCornwall1]

But a lot less people are phoning for medical help.

Or have had the medical help withdrawn completely. My consultants appointment was cancelled, which obviously I expected. But for the last 7 weeks the specialist helpline I can contact (not based at our hospital) has been shutdown and I have no way of getting specialist help regarding quite bad problems I am having with one of my drugs.

My GP cannot make a decision on what to do as they didn't prescribe it and can't change it, I've been told it's only my consultant that can do that. I'm between a rock and a hard place as all the helpline says is they are closed until further notice and the only other information is the symptoms of this virus, which we all know as it's been rammed down our throats. Not useful.

But of course, Mr Hancock has said the NHS are open for business!!

[Freethefrogs]

My point is that the vast majority of people being keen for everything to get back to normal - simply have no real life experience of the devastating effect of this illness. It's not affected them, therefore it doesn't really exist.

You are talking bollocks since I know and love several people who have had it and been hospitalised.

[rookiemere]

I agree llets , now we're passed the initial phase it would make a lot of sense to pay for those at highest risk to be able to stay at home. Also now we know more about the make up of who is most vulnerable, it would make sense to add those factors in as we know males, the overweight and BAME populations more at risk. Targeted financial safety nets would help the rest of us to get back to work and some sort of normal economy.

[disorganisedsecretsquirrel]

The economy will be equally fucked if the R goes over 1 again.

Just because some people get a mild cold like illness doesn't mean everyone does. As I said my young neighbour and mother of 3 under 10s is now dead. No health issues prior to this.

It's a gamble. One I don't fancy taking. Perhaps some of you do. Some of you will be fine, some will die. Simple as that.

As long as the shielding group continue to be able to WFH , stay on furlough , receive govt grants for the duration the govt tells us to remain shielded - then I say to anyone who thinks epidemics are cured because people are bored and want to 'get back to normal' .. 'crack on' .

[PhilCornwall1]

It's a gamble. One I don't fancy taking. Perhaps some of you do. Some of you will be fine, some will die. Simple as that.

It's a gamble I'll take and I'm meant to be shielding and the chances are if I get it, I'll be dead, but if that happens, my family will be financially secure.

Alive and me with no job means we aren't, so to me I know what I want and need to do.

[Lynda07]

Freethefrogs Sun 03-May-20 10:31:43
"My point is that the vast majority of people being keen for everything to get back to normal - simply have no real life experience of the devastating effect of this illness. It's not affected them, therefore it doesn't really exist."
........
You are talking bollocks since I know and love several people who have had it and been hospitalised.
........
What the poster above you is saying is that the vast majority of people have no experience and that is true, most haven't, some have. I know a couple of people who think they may have had the virus but managed it at home but know nobody who was hospitalised or who has been tested positive.

None of that is very relevant though, early release of lockdown could be a disaster. I recognise how difficult it is for many people but I certainly don't want lockdown lifted yet.