What if we can’t find a successful vaccine?

[LegoBloodyHurts]

Does it concern anyone else the possibility we may not be able to find a successful vaccine for this?

It’s a scary prospect, but not entirely unreasonable, given we still haven’t cured some other viruses with years of research.

[DGRossetti]

My point is that waiting for a vaccine is pointless.

Even if that were true (and it's not a proven) why would it affect anything ? Nowhere in the world does evidence based policy, so you'd have to overcome "da feelz" of opposition to that view first.

The tropical world has learned to live with the nasty diseases that kill many the temperate world needs to do the same

The problem there is tropical diseases conveniently stay in the tropics where they can be ignored. Which is a statement of the situation, not an expression of contentment, by the way.

If I were to take a brief and rare trip to the cynical side, I'd suggest that the quickest way to find a vaccine for malaria would be to find a way to transmit it via aerosol from human to human.

[user1497207191]

I'd be more worried about the rush to get the vaccine out to the public.... Who knows in years to come if it causes asthma or cancer... Hope they take their time to trial it properly but if there is any terrible side effects they won't be known until years from now when we've all been vaccinated

We won't ALL be vaccinated. Those who've already had covid won't need a vaccination. It'll initially be given to emergency service workers who've not had it, and then to the extremely vulnerable, then the vulnerable. That'll take many months, so most people who aren't on the front line nor vulnerable will have probably had covid. The extremely vulnerable probably don't have decades of life left anyway, so long term effects of a vaccine aren't so much of a problem - you have to weigh the small risk of long term effects against a much higher risk of getting covid and not surviving it. It's like some cancer treatments - they're not actually good for normal people, but they are likely to do more good than harm for someone with cancer - i.e. thalydimide is used in some cancer treatments despite being banned for everything else due to the risks and side effects.

[user1497207191]

We have still not got a cure for most cancers despite decades of work. I really hope we will get one for this and soon, but we need to make plans on the basis that we don’t.

A cure for certain cancers is VERY different to developing a vaccine for a virus.

[Frompcat]

I wish people who know sweet f all about immunology would stop tossing their ill informed opinions in the ring about this.

Saying we don't have a cure for cancer so it's likely we won't have a cure for this is just the most ridiculous comparison.

[midgebabe]

I don't see anyone waiting for a vaccine as its strategy

Yes, vaccine and /or effective treatment would make life a lot easier , until then some level of suppression is needed , but full lockdown till then isn't viable

[Floatyboat]

1% of the world will die. A similar percentage to that which dies from preventable disease every year. So I really don't think it can be seen an existential threat unless we let it be.

[badg3r]

I work in the field. I am very very confident there will he a vaccine. It is just a question of how long it takes to get it scaled up and rolled out in enough volumes to make it useful for herd immunity.

[DGRossetti]

1% of the world will die. A similar percentage to that which dies from preventable disease every year.

It very much matters which 1% that is though ...

[feesh]

Having read about the work that’s going on at Oxford, I’m very hopeful that a vaccine will be in production a lot sooner than we expected. And they DO have a vaccine for MERS - it’s being used in Saudi.

[ListeningQuietly]

feesh
There is a trial of a vaccine for MERS
There is no vaccine as yet
www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-(mers-cov)

Vaccinating the whole world is a MASSIVE undertaking
it is the work of decades not months
and there is always a backlash (see the late stages of the polio campaign)

So, I reiterate
we have to learn to live with it
rather than lock down till its gone

[Gin96]

@badg3r can you tell me as you are in the field, who would be vaccinated first and would this be rolled out worldwide? What time frame are we looking at?

[ListeningQuietly]

The smallpox vaccination campaign took ten years
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_vaccine#Eradication_of_smallpox
on a MUCH smaller world population
The polio campaign has been running since 1988
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_eradication
and has still not succeeded

Even if a vaccine was ready tonight,
to vaccinate all of the HCPs
and then the vulnerable
and then the other key workers
and then the rest of us
will take YEARS

So we HAVE to learn to live with COVID

[Sunshinegirl82]

I don’t disagree that we will need to learn to live with the virus in the short term but once a vaccine is in mass production I think they will have a mass vaccination program in place fairly quickly (certainly in western countries). If social distancing is still necessary to keep the virus at bay there will be huge motivation to move quickly.

They can also start using the vaccine to do ring vaccination depending on how quickly it becomes effective and assuming there is some sort of test and trace in place.

As usual it will be poorer countries that I suspect will have to wait for the vaccine for longer. I really hope there is sufficient benefit to richer countries in giving assistance to poorer countries that things move faster than they might otherwise.

[ListeningQuietly]

once a vaccine is in mass production I think they will have a mass vaccination program in place fairly quickly (certainly in western countries)
And the MMR campaign has gone so smoothly

[FrameyMcFrame]

It's worrying because having had the virus, I don't feel better after 4 weeks and I'm nervous about the long term effects

We don't know how the virus is going to affect people in the long run, immunity isn't guaranteed.

[Sunshinegirl82]

@listeningquietly

I really don’t think you can compare the two. In any event, the vaccine may be mandatory (I think the emergency legislation allows for this although I’d have to check). Otherwise Various incentives could be offered to get the numbers to the required levels.

It will depend very much on the lay of the land when the vaccine come out I suspect. If the virus has receded and we are functioning as normal there will be less uptake than if we are still social distancing and/or having regular lockdowns.

Deaths will be massively reduced just by vaccinating those who currently receive the winter flu vaccine I would imagine.perhaps this vaccine will become like the flu vaccine, principally utilised by those most at risk.

[tootyfruitypickle]

The Spanish flu didn’t have a vaccine and it disappeared didnt it? Appreciate completely different world. It came back in second peak worse because the sickest troops carrying the more lethal strain were transported back to hospitals. Hopefully now there is mitigation against this type of event.

[ListeningQuietly]

In any event, the vaccine may be mandatory (I think the emergency legislation allows for this although I’d have to check)
I'd very much like to see the link for that assertion

Deaths will be massively reduced just by vaccinating those who currently receive the winter flu vaccine I would imagine.perhaps this vaccine will become like the flu vaccine, principally utilised by those most at risk.
And until the vaccine is tested and ready ?
3 .... 4 years ?

[Sunshinegirl82]

12-18 months appears to be the general consensus. The scientist operating the Oxford university vaccine study is hopeful of having a vaccine ready to administer to the population in September although I think that’s optimistic.

The WHO stated today that 3 vaccines are currently undergoing human trials with a further 67 in development.

time.com/5819887/coronavirus-vaccines-development-who/

[ListeningQuietly]

so 18 months to start vaccinating

a decade till its complete
assuming the anti vaxxers do not get stuck in

12 years of lockdown?
really?

[ShleeAnKree]

The spanish flu had a shorter incubation (24-48 hours) and a much much higher mortality rate so those two factors would make it possible for it to disappear.

[Sunshinegirl82]

Why would it take a decade to give the same people who get a winter flu jab a vaccine? Why would we be in lockdown for 12 years? I don’t advocate locking down until the entire world has been vaccinated!

I’m all for releasing the lockdown and I’m not particularly bothered about catching the virus, I’m low risk and confident I’d be ok. Those that are in the shielding group may well not be able to rejoin society in a meaningful way until a vaccine is found however so the quicker one is found the better.

[ListeningQuietly]

Sunshine
Uptake of the winter flu vaccine is low
and needs to be redone every year
how would you MAKE people take the Covid vaccine ?
AND get enough doses

[Gin96]

Especially a vaccine that’s been rushed though, no thanks, I won’t be taking it or my children.

[Sunshinegirl82]

You may not need to make people get the vaccine. The uptake of winter flu vaccine may well be low. I wonder if it would be higher if the number of people who die from flu was published on a daily basis and people were confined to their homes to stop it spreading.

I really don’t think you can compare the appetite of people to get the usual winter flu vaccine or the MMR under the normal schedule to the appetite to get a vaccine against a virus causing an active pandemic. As I said before, a lot will depend on the lay of the land when the vaccine becomes available. If people are living normally I suspect uptake will be lower than if we are still needing to actively manage the virus in ways that cause inconvenience.

They are going to start producing the most promising vaccines in quantity before the trials are completed so that they can be made available quickly. Why wouldn’t we be able to get enough doses?

I’m not saying we’d have the entire nation vaccinated within weeks but I really can’t see it being years or decades before the high risk groups are vaccinated.