What if we can’t find a successful vaccine?

[LegoBloodyHurts]

Does it concern anyone else the possibility we may not be able to find a successful vaccine for this?

It’s a scary prospect, but not entirely unreasonable, given we still haven’t cured some other viruses with years of research.

There is now more-than-anecdotal evidence of swift reinfection from South Korea.

No there isn’t. There is evidence that a small number of people retested as positive after testing as negative. This could be test failure, reactivation or reinfection or something else. This is being investigated.

Sarah Gilbert, the Oxford professor, said she hoped her vaccine might be ready by September. There's no indication it will work. Have a look at Fig. 1 in this recent Nature summary. www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00073-5 There's no consensus about how to even go about making one. Her team is one of 100+ all gamely attempting the same thing -- let's hope it works, but what she was really doing by speaking to the media like that was getting more funding (and possibly, heaven help us, laying the foundations for a REF impact case study).

I wonder if they will be able to notice more trends about who is worst affected by covid and that may help. But vaccine and treatments are going to be the main solutions I suppose. Or herd immunity but that assumes that immunity lasts a lifetime. We don’t know yet how long it lasts.

As far as S Korea goes, reinfection is the most benign scenario! That makes Covid-19 look more like the other endemic ('common cold') coronaviruses. Test failure means that the virus persists for a REALLY long time, i.e. many months, with levels rising and falling, and reactivation (maybe the same thing) implies it has properties not yet seen in coronaviruses. All of these outcomes are, in any event, unpropitious for a vaccine, because a vaccine needs to replicate the immune response of a person who gets the disease and effectively clears it via an antibody response. (See problems with the chickenpox vaccine.)

I think we should assume, for ourselves and our own personal level of vulnerability to the virus, that there won't be.

And plan accordingly.

Some of us will be in voluntary lock down (and resultant poverty) a lot longer than others.

However, every week that passes without a vulnerable person getting sick is another week of knowledge about the virus - how it works, how best to treat.

For the 80%, you are going to have to get used to living life differently. Yes, working, and being able to engage in small gatherings, but no international travel, no big gatherings of any kind. Lock down lite, I guess. You will get the virus at some point, and likely be OK.

Shielding people I am frightened for. I foresee long periods of lock down for them, as their plight gradually becomes even more invisible to the 80%, who say such things as 'oh well, we all have to die sometime!'

Plan for the worst, hope for the best...perhaps reality will lie somewhere in between. But there's no vaccine coming in the next 8 weeks, so vulnerable and shielded people - start planning for how you are going to manage...there isn't a government plan to help you, so it's each person on their own, I'm afraid.

Think about homeschooling your kids, starting a homebased business, having lower risk family members live with extended family on an ongoing basis...do what you can to enable you to delay contracting the virus. And hope for effective treatment as your 'release', rather than a vaccine.

My concern is about the evidence coming from South Korea showing reinfection of people that have recovered. Hopefully a testing error, rather than no immunity or it laying dormant. Then what?

There are existing coronavirus vaccines for animals, so it’s very likely to be possible to develop coronavirus vaccines for humans. That doesn’t mean it will be quick or anything, though the research is moving faster than anything like this has done before.

At the same time as the vaccine research, there will be anti viral treatment research. So it may not be as deadly in the future, even if no vaccine is found.

test failure means that the virus persists for a REALLY long time

Really, why?

test failure means that the virus persists for a REALLY long time

Could you explain this? I thought the cases in South Korea tested positive very soon after testing negative (which is why they don't think they were reinfected) so how does it imply the virus lasts for a really long time? Also surely test failure could mean just that - the test failed and either the patients had a false negative or a false positive test result?

I think some of you are assuming having a vaccine will be the end of the matter. Not necessarily, if the virus mutates and the vaccine is no longer effective.

I am absolutely not being a guinea pig for some rushed-through vaccine, either. That will not end well.

"In the meantime, when more people have recovered, could they start giving plasma with antibodies to people admitted to hospital?"

They have already done this in Korea with some success.

I'm worried about Bill Gates funding it. Should a private individual have the power to save humanity in his hands ... especially one who open discusses the wolrd being over populated with the wrong people.

My understanding is that if the virus does mutate then we will need to have regular, targeted vaccines in the same way as we do for the flu.

At least one of the vaccine projects is looking to try and produce a vaccine against all coronaviruses and so if that can be achieved it may deal with any mutation issue.

Ah yes, Bill Gates the well-known mass murderer, who helped to almost irradicate polio and is fighting HIV etc. Clearly just a long con to wipe us all out with a fake vaccine.

I don't think he's going to wipe us out with a fake vaccine I do however worry it shouldn't be in private hands .... of anyone

I think out of all the wealthy philanthropists out there, he's the most trustworthy.

Now if it were one huge corporation ike Amazon funding and owning it, that would be different.

I don't think best of a bad bunch should be the aim here ... although are the governments any better. The whole thing is a shit storm

In relation to the Oxford study, @hopsalong, I'm guessing you didn't see this comment written below The Times article:

"It's a solid candidate that has proven efficacy in adjacent viruses. Fingers crossed it works. The September claim may be a little bold for general population. I'm currently working on the tech transfer of this vaccine into manufacturing (Oxford University has no manufacturing capability itself) and even with the vastly accelerated programme, both logistical and regulatory, it still takes some time.

We are however fortunate that this vaccine is exceptionally potent and the cell line they have developed is high producing. This greatly reduces manufacturing load. By September, if the processes we designed transfer correctly (they should) we should beyond first tests and into front line workers/children/vulnerable adults by September. General population later than that, but before end of year."

I wouldn’t let my child have a vaccine that has been rushed through. How can enough tests been done if it normally takes 4 years to develop a vaccine.

@Gin96 you may not have a say

"My concern is about the evidence coming from South Korea showing reinfection of people that have recovered. Hopefully a testing error, rather than no immunity or it laying dormant. Then what?"

Yes, that news scared me when I read it last night. www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-reports-more-recovered-coronavirus-patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21V0JQ

@ChrissieKeller61 then that would really worry me, would everyone else be happy for their children to be forced to have vaccine that hasn’t been properly tested?

Woah I’m listen to the BBC’s global podcast and the speaker on there said that only 4% of the UK population had been exposed to the virus so far!!!!!!!!! That’s a ridiculously low number. Couldn’t believe it.

The problem with C-19 compared to HIV is how easy it is to spread. So not having a vaccine has completely different implications.

All of which being said, anyone who wasted their lives reading about the past will know that the past 100 or so years - with vaccines for diseases that killed with tiresome regularity - is an aberration in human history. Even my DM knew someone at her school (mid 40s) that died of Scarlet Fever (another one for which we haven't got a vaccine ...)

So there isn't any automatic reason to assume C-19 is easily amenable - if at all - to a vaccination programme yet.

I’m worried about this. They’ve never come close to finding a vaccine for HIV, and it’s been over thirty years of research.