What if we can’t find a successful vaccine?

[LegoBloodyHurts]

Does it concern anyone else the possibility we may not be able to find a successful vaccine for this?

It’s a scary prospect, but not entirely unreasonable, given we still haven’t cured some other viruses with years of research.

[DGRossetti]

They’ve never come close to finding a vaccine for HIV, and it’s been over thirty years of research.

As I said, HIV is actually quite hard to catch. And it's a retrovirus (which C-19 isn't).

That said, there is a lot of politicking behind the HIV story ... I'm of an age to remember when it was a "gay plague" and there was open debate about doing fuck all about, it since it only killed the undeserving sinners anyway.

It wasn't until it was seen to be a risk to naice white middle class heterosexual people that the panic set in. And incredible as it seems now, it was the UK that not only led the world, but set the standard for dealing with HIV through unheard of hard-hitting public education.

It was a different UK back then. Run by people competent enough to understand expert advice, and not shrink from it (Mrs Thatcher really detested the campaign she approved, but realised it was scientifically the right thing to do).

[Sunshinegirl82]

There are Coronavirus vaccines in use with animals and work on vaccines for SARS and MERS were progressing well but stopped because the virus transmission dropped to the point they were no longer necessary.

There is every reason to be hopeful that a successful vaccine will be found.

Even if there isn’t, effective treatments have been found for both Scarlett fever and HIV. Scarlett fever is still around now but treated effectively and it is not rampant in the community to the point that any significant measures are necessary to control it. If corona is akin to Scarlett fever in a few years time there won’t really be much to worry about.

I’m not sure there is any reason to suppose that this virus will behave significantly differently from any other virus the human race has encountered (and learnt to manage).

[DGRossetti]

If corona is akin to Scarlett fever in a few years time there won’t really be much to worry about.

I only mentioned SF from my DMs memory. People can still die of it. Like mumps. And measles too.

[Sunshinegirl82]

Yes, people can die from pretty much anything. A few hundred people a year die from chicken pox. They won’t be dying in vast quantities and overwhelming the health service though.

[DGRossetti]

Yes, people can die from pretty much anything. A few hundred people a year die from chicken pox. They won’t be dying in vast quantities and overwhelming the health service though.

So the metric of success for a vaccine is not lives saved so much as resources reduced ?

[Sunshinegirl82]

To an extent, yes. You can not eradicate deaths from all diseases and infections ever. My dad died of sepsis at 71, people die from all sorts of things all the time.

There is a vaccine for chicken pox which isn’t on the NHS schedule. The majority of people are happy with that and are not overly concerned when their child gets chicken pox. Statistically though a few children each year will die from complications relating to chicken pox (quite a few more adults will die of complications relating to chicken pox). The risk is small but it is there.

If in time this virus becomes one of the endemic viruses that we manage adequately either by way of vaccine or effective treatment (or it becomes a chicken pox type virus, mild in childhood and generally caught then providing immunity and thus not impacting significant numbers of adults) then I doubt it will continue to be a massive concern.

Obviously if vaccination can completely eradicate it then fantastic but we have only achieved that once (with smallpox). Measles, mumps etc still exist just at manageable levels.

[viccat]

I've wondered about this too... There's a feline coronavirus that has affected cats for decades and there's no vaccine even though it's pretty much always fatal if they get it. I assume it all comes down to funding and they are investing so much in the development of the covid-19 vaccine that it has a high likelihood of being successfully developed?

[LastTrainEast]

"the speaker on there said that only 4% of the UK population had been exposed to the virus so far!" One estimate is half of the population.

[LastTrainEast]

Not saying it is half of course. The point is we don't know yet.

[justanotherneighinparadise]

@LastTrain that was on today’s BBC global podcast. I’ll go back and see who said that.

[justanotherneighinparadise]

James Gallagher the BBCs health and science correspondent. mobile.twitter.com/JamesTGallagher?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[DGRossetti]

Obviously if vaccination can completely eradicate it then fantastic but we have only achieved that once (with smallpox).

Our headmaster at middle school called an assembly to tell us all ... 1976ish ?

[InglouriousBasterd]

SARS and MERS were both fairly self limiting and there wasn’t much heart in the vaccine research for them.

HIV is an entirely different kind of virus and the main problem with finding a vaccine for this is the speed at which it mutates when not suppressed. However the treatments available allow the vast majority to live with it and die with it at normal life expectancy, not early and because of it.

Covid has had a global affect and as such has unprecedented levels of and budgets for research into a vaccine. The greatest scientific minds of the entire world are working on this. It’s a completely different ballgame, so I wouldn’t personally get too panicked about the prospect of no vaccine; even if there wasn’t for the foreseeable, there will be drugs developed to suppress the virus. This isn’t something you can look at history to explain the future.

(Work in pharma)

[DGRossetti]

The greatest scientific minds of the entire world and Donald Trump are working on this.

[sunglasses123]

I would agree with a number of PP. The greatest minds in the world will be working on this. FGS - it nearly killed our own UK PM! I can see the point re HIV and why it took so long to get it under control.

This is completely different and there is a real push from the whole world to get a vaccine.

For those who are saying that they want 100% guarantees or dont want to be guinea pigs. Well, dont have it, I could well not be in a rush to get it even though I suffer from asthma but honestly it will be one of those things in life where the two choices you have arent 100% right or 100% wrong. There will be pros and cons for all.

[DGRossetti]

FGS - it nearly killed our own UK PM!

[justanotherneighinparadise]

The greatest scientific minds of the entire world and Donald Trump are working on this.

[DGRossetti]

For those who are saying that they want 100% guarantees or dont want to be guinea pigs.

You know all those people queuing to go on a one-way mission to Mars ????

[sunglasses123]

I dont mind if Trump gets a vaccine sorted. No one should.

[ListeningQuietly]

The western world stops for COVID
but Malaria still kills hundreds of thousand a year
EVERY year

[okiedokieme]

The common cold can be lethal to tribes with no contact with the wider world, the reason we only get mild to moderate symptoms is because we've repeatedly been exposed including in utero. It seems like we get partial immunity at least from catching it so going forward we will be able to fight it off better. A lot more research needs to be done before a vaccine could be put into general use (there's a few about to enter clinical trials) and it may be possible to get full or partial immunity

[DGRossetti]

The western world stops for COVID but Malaria still kills hundreds of thousand a year EVERY year

You have made the same point time and time again ... while it's not untrue, it doesn't really add anything to the current situation apart from to reinforce that life ain't fair. And unless you really are a bit dim, that should be news to no one.

If malaria could be spread as easily as COVID, I think it's fair to say it would have been treated differently.

Malaria has probably killed more humans than all other diseases, wars and famines combined. It's not too strong to call it the scourge of mankind. We get it.

[Eyewhisker]

We have still not got a cure for most cancers despite decades of work. I really hope we will get one for this and soon, but we need to make plans on the basis that we don’t.

[DGRossetti]

The common cold can be lethal to tribes with no contact with the wider world, the reason we only get mild to moderate symptoms is because we've repeatedly been exposed including in utero.

There's also the role played by the biome in natural birth, and transmission of antibodies in breast milk to be factored in ...

Generally, medical research tends to highlight more things we need to research, rather than any definitive answers. (As does all research, really).

[ListeningQuietly]

DGR
My point is that waiting for a vaccine is pointless.
It may never come.
Therefore we need to learn to live WITH Covid and is successors
not grind the whole western economy into the ground because of it.

The tropical world has learned to live with the nasty diseases that kill many
the temperate world needs to do the same
or accept that it will become much poorer