to wonder why the USA isn't taking a more forceful stance on Syria?

[holidaybug]

I don't profess to know or understand the full details but I am surprised that Obama isn't taking a stronger stance on this. Hasn't the line been crossed for sure now?

[GoshAnneGorilla]

Eldritch - I never said anything was easy, but a no-fly zone would certainly help bring this to a swifter conclusion. Also, no the Syrian air force is not that much cop.

As for mission creep, the mission is clear, Assad should go. That is the sole aim to be achieved.

This is quite a clearly written overview: www.maysaloon.org/2013/03/deal-with-devil.html

[GoshAnneGorilla]

This is also an interesting look at what might happen if there isn't an intervention: qunfuz.com/2013/08/16/letter-to-john-baron-mp/#more-2157

[cantspel]

If we start arming the rebels how do we stop the weapons falling into the hands of Al Qaeda?

And just now do the US enforce a no fly zone over syria? especially as russia has already said that any attempt would violate international law

[EldritchCleavage]

As for mission creep, the mission is clear, Assad should go. That is the sole aim to be achieved

That' not mission creep. Mission creep is when you start with a no-fly zone that then morphs into bombing then into other stuff. And it is a real risk.

[GoshAnneGorilla]

Eldritch - that all sounds rather perfect being the enemy of good.

A no fly zone is exactly that. Not bombing other targets.

cantspel FSA are not Al Qaeda.

[cantspel]

Russia is supplying Syria with Pantsir S-1 and the S-300s missiles which are more than capable of knocking out any american planes trying to enforce a no fly zone.

[cantspel]

Gosh what about Jabhat al-Nusra who support Al-Qaeda

[GoshAnneGorilla]

JAN are still not the FSA and it's the FSA who have majority support for their long term aims. There is also not the appetite for endless conflict in Syria, people want this war to be over and the process of rebuilding to start. If you read the links I have posted, you will gain a better insight.

[Fillyjonk75]

I for one am really very glad GWB is no longer president and the US aren't trying to be the policemen of the world. Especially when it in most countries it is unclear who to support. The US and UK have done enough meddling in middle eastern affairs in the last 100 years (or centuries in respect of England) to last several lifetimes. Any action should be taken at UN level and not as individual countries.

[cantspel]

No you just want me to read links that favour your view point.

The FSA and Nusra at the moment are fighting the same cause but do you really think that if Assad goes then they will remain so friendly when all that lovely power is up for grabs?

The FSA might out number Nusra but Nusra are better organised and seasoned fighters from Iraq

[cantspel]

and a link for you

www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/10/syria-al-nusra-front-jihadi

maybe it will improve your insight

[GoshAnneGorilla]

The links are also written by Syrians who provide a very good overview of the situation. Or would you rather not listen to what they have to say?

[Monty27]

Wetaugust may I use the analogy on here that the poor men and boys sent out from this country didn't even have decent boots. Blair and Bush have much blood on their hands.

I admire all you knowledgeables.

[GoshAnneGorilla]

You can't do much without public support, post Assad there would not be the support for JAN.

Why would there be? Again, Syria is not Iraq.

[GoshAnneGorilla]

Also, I read the link, you posted, back in July when it was first published.

[cantspel]

But Nusra have support which happens to be growing, they also have power which they enforce with killing raping and kidnapping, large sections of the country and the countries resources under their control.

Do you think that they are going to give them up once Assad is defeated? When there stated goal is an islamic state ruled by the sunni

[GoshAnneGorilla]

You've read one article. No JAN do not have vast sections of the country under their control. There is more then one Islamist group for a start, they're a rather disparate bunch and they are still outnumbered by the FSA.

You do also know that the vast majority of Syria is Sunni, thus most of the FSA are Sunni too?

Once Assad is defeated, there will many more economic players in Syria. It is interesting in the article, that the JAN leader interviewed seemed equally interested in the gas profits he was making as any concept of an Islamic state.

Syria has a huge merchant class, that is largely unaffiliated with the regime, yet has had to hand over chunks of their profits to them for years, many are currently biding their time in Jordan or elsewhere. The regime being out of the way would provide many opportunities for them and for business generally. As I've said, the Syrian people want stability, not permanent conflict, and I suspect that would be the case, even for those who are currently saying more intemperate rhetoric.

[Ericaequites]

A science teacher and Vietnam veteran taught me in high school that doing nothing is often an option. There is no good option to intervene in Syria. America is tired and broke. I say this as an Anglophile and American whose family has lived in the same place for almost four centuries.
The recent gas attacks sadden and disgust me. I wonder if the gas was part of Saddam's weapons of mass destruction smuggled out during the confusion of the Iraq invasion. Saddam used gas on the Kurds. Everything has to be someplace.

[cantspel]

Yes i did know that syria is mainly sunni thankyou but a sunni who doesn't accept Nusra's ideology is sooner or later going to be their enemy. And then you have the Alawites who they are never going to accept.

It doesn't matter about the number if they control the oil (which they do alread), gas, food (which they do in the north of the country) and Syria's largest hydroelectric dam which controls the water flow in both the north and east of the country. Nusra are not stupid they know that to win the minds of the people they need to feed and supply utilities to them. This they are doing by giving out free food, free gas, free oil and free health care. They are are building the start of their caliphate.

Do you think if Assad was gone tomorrow that they would be giving these up either to the merchant class or the FSA?

Never going to happen in a million years and they very fact that they are so organized and they have taken control over such key resources means that they will be a force in their own right with a completely different idea of what a free Syria should be. And what worries me is that people are calling for the west to arm the very people who hate everything the west stands for.

[cantspel]

Who controls Aleppo? Syria's largest merchant district populated mainly by middle class sunn businessmen who supported Assad but only because he's left them and their cash alone. Syria's richest city the home of the merchant class is now a stronghold of Nusra

[GoshAnneGorilla]

No JAN certainly do not control all the oil, that most of the oil fields are located in Kurdish controlled areas should give you a big clue there.

Again, no one is calling for the West to arm JAN.

Also, just because people are working with/for JAN and similar groups, it doesn't necessarily mean they support all their aims. This is a time of conflict, people are just getting by.

To answer your question
"Do you think if Assad was gone tomorrow that they would be giving these up either to the merchant class or the FSA?"

It's not about giving things up, it's about not being able to maximise profits when you're working in isolation. Being successful in business means making deals.

You don't seem to understand that while most Syrians are religious, they aren't salafi, it's not a popular ideology there. People are tolerating certain groups now, because they need them, not because they share their aims. Again, once a group or movement has little to no support base they will be finished.

[GoshAnneGorilla]

As I told you, most of the merchants have fled to Jordan.

According to latest reports, parts of Aleppo is now controlled by Ahrar Sureya, not JAN, and this seems to be in a state of flux.

[GoshAnneGorilla]

And ha ha ha at Assad leaving anyone's cash alone. That's not how it worked. The regime had a cut of everyone's cake.

[cantspel]

wrong Nusra control the northern oil fields not the kurds and they are processing the crude themselves and shipping along the Mediterranean coast.

There is limited domestic production in Damascus controlled by the FSA but nusra control northern and eastern syria and its oil production

As you are so fond of links

www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/05/22/Syrias-jihadists-have-edge-control-oil/UPI-10761369247923/

[cantspel]

They were left to make money and live a nice middle class life. of couse he would take his cut but on the whole they had a very nice life under Assad.