What happened at Belmont was awful, but was quite specific to a set of decisions that were made badly by the school and then also impacted by covid and supply chain problems. Basically their numbers were dropping so they decided to spend a huge amount of money on new facilities, which then ended up being wildly over budget and time due to covid and supply chain and then the numbers didn’t increase.
Barrow Hills has no such Capex projects in mind and actually has taken on pupils from Belmont and the Royal School which also closed.
To be honest, all these small prep schools are doing what they can. Penthorpe also has tiny numbers in some years. It’s hard because parents want small classes, specialist teachers and good facilities but the costs of these are high. I can see BH stopping year 7 and 8 and just feeding straight into other high schools as loads in Surrey/Sussex now have a year 7 entry and the numbers for those years are really small. Lower down the school the numbers have been fine though and I haven’t heard any issues with funding at all.
As for KESW - the head has been putting in lots of academic improvements and also will happily recruit students from overseas as they have the boarding facilities. Their money for CapEx comes from a well established fund which isn’t related to fees.
I have no idea of the impact of VAT on fees. For a school like KESW they have various ways to increase fees - they can cut the number of bursary pupils, they’ve already introduced a uniform that is paid for when it used to be free and if they improve academics (which they already are, and can easily do by becoming more selective and offering more academic scholarships) they would increase the number of people going there.
I had a child at both schools so am happy to answer questions!