Targets and predictions for GCSE

[RomanyRoots]

Are these necessary?
What are the pros and cons and have they affected your dc for the better?

[alardi]

targets,
DS1: ignored them; was resolved to underachieve, anyway.
DD: saw them as a challenge to aspire to
DS2: assumes they are guaranteed no matter how minimal work he does.

I think the effect comes down to personality?

[RomanyRoots]

Alltootrue

that is terrible for your dd I'm so sorry. these new GCSE's are hard enough without adding all the unnecessary stress.
Mine too is dyslexic but school say she won't qualify for extra time, but thankfully she doesn't need the time, and to label her was advised against by CAMHS.

We have just got over "I can't do it", but now I don't think she has any idea how much effort she has to put in to get the grades she wants. We are lucky that the bare min will do for future colleges, but as a mum you want them to reach their potential academically, whatever that may be.

Phil
You'd be surprised, the majority if they can get away with it, they will.
I'm speaking purely from the academic pov obviously.
There are some very academically gifted children who will do well wherever they go. Then there are those who are bright enough to wing it. Then the worrying group are those like my dd who struggle with some aspects and need to work extra hard and put in the hours.
I'm hoping that just by chipping away I'm getting somewhere but it's a concern.

[Alltootrue2u]

sorry for typos. I get so cross talking about it. They have no target grades and all DD predicted grades are 3/4. Since she is hitting all of these (obviously and with ease) the school will do nothing as far as they are concerned she will make her predicted grades and that's their job done.

They set in year 7 and 8 for all subjects so DD got put in the bottom set with all the kids that cant behave and mess about and don't care. She isn't like that at all and was bullied throughout. They changed the system in year 9 for mixed sets (new head) and she has been so much happier since. Sadly she goes back into year 10 and they set for Maths, science and English. Guess we are back to square one!

[Alltootrue2u]

DD’s school is the whitest school for this. They base all their predictions on FFT (KS2 results) and will not deviate from them. They refuse to give you these until year 9 and then will only tell you if you are at expected or exceeding the predicted level. They don’t say how they need to improve on their current grade. They will not deviate from this grade.

My DD is dyslexic at her primary school refused to apply for any additional support or allowances for SATs. She has subsequently also been diagnosed as inattentive ADD and is not medicated for this. She got ok data but has made huge, huge progress. None of this affects her target grades. We pay for external support for English and maths and both tutors say her report is inaccurate. I’m so fucked off with the school. Outstanding my arse!!!!!

[Isentthesignal]

Our school have provided targets (computer generated) and current teacher predictions for each end of year they have been so wildly off in both directions it’s unreal. They annoy and upset the dcs at report time, never have they felt motivated or challenged by them and I after Year 7 I did my best to convince the dcs to ignore them.

[PhilODox]

I appreciate that my experience with the said school is in the dark ages now, but is there really much opportunity for coasting there?

[RomanyRoots]

Thanks Phil and others.
I think my main concern atm, isn't really the lack of targets but being able to work out how much extra effort needs to be put in/ if there's enough effort. I want to stop the coasting/ not putting in effort attitude if it exists and not have to wait for situations of hindsight if that makes sense.

[PhilODox]

Of course (re UCAS and predicted a level graded) entry to conservatoire is based on audition, so a level grades not crucial or a bar to entry (they can give unconditional offers)

[PhilODox]

Also, they won't have access to FFT, so don't worry about that. They will likely use Midyis or CATS to predict GCSE outcomes, as IIRC your child had no KS2.

[PhilODox]

As your DC's school is independent, they aren't compelled to use targets in quite the same way maintained schools are.
However, predicted grades at a level will be required, unless you wait until they have sat their a levels, and had a gap year before applying through UCAS (all conservatoires go through UCAS?)

[AlexanderHamilton]

Midyis tests produce Chances graphs. It shows the percentage chance of a child reaching certain GCSE grades. I was given an explanation pack from ds's school about it all along with the results of his Year 7 tests but I never got his Chances graph as they are given out in Year 9 and he left the school at the end of Year 8.

[RomanyRoots]

Aw, that's interesting, wrt FFT, i hadn't heard of this.
So, if the children haven't taken ks2 SATs, or CATS could they get the information to target or predict GCSE's and a levels from other tests like MIDYIS or YELLIS .
Obviously, I'll speak to the school, just wanted to get the facts first, as I always forget to ask something important.

[Peanutbuttercups21]

DS1 did not do Sats, he was a slightly below average pupil in primary (up from being 2yrs behind where he should be in y3)

Somehow he got target grades 7-9 for everything. Most of his year 10 grades were 4-7 so not sure this is achievable

Am not British, so the school and grading system here is hard to get my head around at times (and it's constantly changing?!).

He's going into y11 now, and I guess we'll just wait and see.

Target grades just confuse me tbh, how can they predict y11 grades based on y7 tests? A lot can happen in 5 years!

[TheThirdOfHerName]

For KS5 targets, some sixth forms do standardised tests at the beginning of Y12. Many use software such as ALIS to extrapolate expected A-level grades.

[TheThirdOfHerName]

Many (most?) secondary schools use FFT (Fischer Family Trust) software to process the data and add socioeconomic context. My understanding is that this takes into account the progress of previous children in the same geographical area.

[AlexanderHamilton]

They use data from KS2 SATs and most schools administer standardised tests on Y7 taster days and induction days. Many schools then repeat these at the end of Y9.

Yes. Dd didn't take SATS but her secondary school administered CATS a few weeks into term in Year 7. Ds's old school used Midyis.

[TheThirdOfHerName]

Do they need predicted grades for A levels for uni admission, or can /would they (the uni's), take this into consideration if the student hadn't been given targets or predictions/ if the school didn't use them

The UCAS form is done online. The applicant fills out their sections (personal details, GCSE grades, which courses they want to apply for, personal statement) and submits it so the school / FE college can do their bit.

Then the school / FE college fills out their sections of the form (predicted grades, reference) and submits it to UCAS.

When these steps have been completed, the universities can see it. Most look at the predicted grades as part of their selection process.

I've never heard of a school or FE college refusing to provide predicted grades for UCAS, so I don't know how it would affect the application if this happened.

[AlexanderHamilton]

Your sixth form will probably require them to attain a certain array of grades to stay on into sixth form

Thats not the case in either my dd's school or Romany's dd's school. Hwever both schools will be set up to give predictions, even if they are in confidence to another institution.

[TheThirdOfHerName]

How do they manage this if they don't have tracking from previous schools

They use data from KS2 SATs and most schools administer standardised tests on Y7 taster days and induction days. Many schools then repeat these at the end of Y9.

[AlexanderHamilton]

My dd didn't need any predicted or actual grades in order to stay on at her current school and she didn't need to for the vocational courses she applied for elsewhere.

The schools that did ask for them sent a form that had to be passed onto her school and filled in by them. I believe for uni applications the school have to put them on the UCAS form.

[Astronotus]

Your sixth form will probably require them to attain a certain array of grades to stay on into sixth form. x7 subjects at a certain grade (can be 5 or 6 or 7) including Maths and English, plus a 7, 8 or 9 in the subject to be studied at A level is quite common. Have a look at the sixth form entry requirements on your current school's website. They may change by the time your DC get to that age but it will give you some indication.

Yes, universities use predicted A level grades as they make offers before A level results. As AS levels (taken end year 12) are being phased out now the unis will also be looking at the GCSE grades achieved.

[RomanyRoots]

If they are staying at the same school for 6th form they won't need predictions or targets though.
Do they need predicted grades for A levels for uni admission, or can /would they (the uni's), take this into consideration if the student hadn't been given targets or predictions/ if the school didn't use them.

[Kilash]

Many school initially set predictions for GCSE based on Y6 SATS and initial testing in Y7. At ds school, the translated into % predictions for 5 GCSES's which were then refined during Y7-10 and ended up being targets at Y10. Like The Third, I think there was a lot of anxiety around the new GCSE's so no-one was predicted 9, ds had 'target ' 7 and 'aspirational' 8 targets in Y11.

Targets definately helped ds focus his attention on where is was needed in the run up to exams.

[AlexanderHamilton]

Neither of my two had data from their previosu schools.

Dd's school gave tagets based on CATS done in Years 7 & 9. But they bore no relation to her actual ability/progress in the various subjects (she had a very spiky profile due to her asd) I think in Year 9 she was predicted Grade 5/6 in Science based on CATS (she ended up with 7 8 8). The abandoned this half way through Year 10 and put predicted grades basedon teacher assessment instead.

Ds's school puts both targets (based on SATS) and predicted Grades based on teacher assessment. Except he didn't do SATS so they put Grade 6 target across the board for him based on what hos previous school said.

So his report reads something like

Maths Target 6 Predicted 8
English Target 6 Predicted 2
Science Target 6 Predicted 5
Computer Target 6 Predicted 5
Food Tech Target 6 Predicted 4
Music Target 6 Predicted 8