School performance at GCSE: Is this really bad?

[perplexo]

I need some advice. Our local school which is the only one DD is likely to get into for yr 7 had a 33% GSCE pass rate for 2015. That is pretty bad, isn't it? I have emailed the headteacher to ask for reassurance but she has not replied to me and it has been a couple of days now. Any of you with experience, can you say what other factors one might take into account in judging this and in thinking through whether the school we provide a decent environment for my DD. It is a good 20% lower than all the other schools in the borough.

[AgonyBeetle]

According to Camden's school admissions guide, both Acland Burghley and Haverstock had unfilled places last year, so you'd probably get offered those if you applied (assuming it doesn't massively change for the current year). AB has had a tough time, but still seems to have lots of supportive parents and happy dc).

There are also some Islignton schools you'd probably be offered, including Holloway school and IAMS (and EGA and Highbury Fields, though I know you said you don't want single-sex). Possibly some Westminster options as well, though I dn't know that area at all.

[Needanadulttotalkto]

OP

Question: IF you decided for whatever reason you couldn't send your DC to this school, what would you do? Gamble and not write it on the admissions form? Move house? Go private?

The school isn't terrible, but I doubt it will be a great experience as you have asked further up the thread.... But then that judgement depends on what your other options are? If you have no other options then send her there and do not feel bad about it. But if you could select somewhere else, how much better would it be and is that worth it?

[WildStallions]

It's not the school you don't like - it's the area.
The school is just a reflection of the area it is in. And seems to do well enough with the pupils it has.

All you can do is put it down as your last choice - because you've left it too late to move.

But stay open minded. You might really like it once she starts.

[WildStallions]

It's not the school you don't like - it's the area.

[perplexo]

we know no one there. Our primary school is 20 minutes bike ride away and no one from that primary school would dream of going to this school. They do everything they can to get into St Marylebone, Grey Coats, Camden School for Girls. If they have boys they go to Holland Park or somewhere with a music scholarship or they move away or go private. Some of the girls go to Elizabeth Garrett Anderson - but we (DP, DD and me) are not keen on single-sex We know no children in the local area - which I think is to do with the demographics - mainly one single ethnic population which appears very family oriented and did not take up the preschool clubs back in the day, when we might have made friends, nor the after school drama clubs and the like (Guides etc) near us that take place now (and struggle to find enough people)- hence us going further afield to find friends. Our estate has many children on it but none of them play outside in the two large green areas that we have. So I have no insider knowledge of the school. But you are right - it is a full and frank answer from the head, which is good.

[BertrandRussell]

Hmm. A reasonable response. And sent during half term too, which is a good sign. I can't go back to the school's stats at the moment- but I seem to remember the high attainers did OK- and that behaviour and the social side seemed OK. My ds is doing very well academically at a school with 7% high attainers and has friends he hangs out with happily at school. I have had to work to top up his more, for want of a better word, highbrow interests out of school. But overall he's having a good experience in many ways. Does your ds know other people who are going to the school?

[perplexo]

I got a response from the headteacher. She notes that after corrections the pass rate A-C GCSE should rise from 33% to 38%, which she acknowledges is still disappointing, but she thinks is an anomaly. The reasons given are some students narrowly missing a C at Maths and students arriving late to secondary education. (Does that mean new immigrants - ones who have never been to high school before?) They have taken action to improve maths. They look forward to a new way of measuring performance from next year - a new measure – known as 'Progress 8' – is based on the overall progress made by all students. In 2015, the Progress 8 indicator for Regent High School demonstrates that students’ progress is in-line with that made nationally by students with similar starting points.

So what do I think? The bottom line is that it is a school which does well by its challenged students and brings them in line with other schools that have challenged students, who begin from low starting points. Does that suit my daughter, who is not at a low starting point? I don't know. I just don't know. I know it will not be a disaster, but will it be a great experience?

[WildStallions]

I think MummyTime might have it right - in my borough most of the prelim results are significantly below their normal results.

My DSs school's results are in the 30s this year, and they never ever have been before.

I'm very happy with DSs school. I'm really sure it's not worse than the next closest school which has results int he 80s. In fact I chose it over the school with better results, because I think it's a better school. It just has a different cohort.

I don't think I'd have been brave enough to choose his school based on this years results - but having chosen it based on other criteria, I can tell you the school is fine. No where near a private school or a grammar school, but a perfectly fine comprehensive.

[BertrandRussell]

I don't think remarks could explain such a dramatic drop- although they do mKe a difference.

I think it all hinges on how the Head answers the OP's questions. I do hope she comes back and tells us. I do like a good school forensic analysis!

[mummytime]

Umm there is one further explanation possible for 33% in 2015 - those results are preliminary results, not all remarks and appeals will have come through yet - there could have been a big issue with one exam result this year.

My DCs school in my DS's year appealed all 300 ish English Lit results, and everyone had their grade increase by one, which meant all the certificates had to be re-issued. But that took months to be finalised.

In another school nearby the exam board lost all of the exam papers from one History exam - they got a final grade just based on the other paper.

[marcopront]

You need to look at more than one year's data. I teach in an IB school, the A"level equivalent is marked out of 7. In the last 5 years we have had about 48% getting 6 or 7 in my subject. Last year we had no 7s and about 20% getting a 6, did we suddenly become worse teachers? No the cohort was bad and quite small so one person can make a big difference.

[Autumnsky]

I had a look at the link given above for the shool, it looks not so bad then. As the past rate had been not bad, from 45%-62%, so only this year dropped.And majority of the students don't have English as the first language, this maybe part of the reason. I say maybe, as most of students who don't speak English as first language do well, I mean the students I know, if they have been in England long enough. Maybe, this year, there are high portion of students who haven't been to this coutry long enough, and their English abilities has dragged them behind?

So I think the most important fact is the discipline in the class. If the class is calm and well behavioured, then you DC has the chance to learn properly and do well. Do you think you can visit school during their normal day?

[BertrandRussell]

It could be low standards- but it's unlikely that the standards would have plummeted like that in one year. As I said, good solid OFSTED, good VA- you really need to find out what happened.

[WildStallions]

Low standards? Wtf?

Last year its value add was well over 1,000 - which implies it has been doing well with its cohort.

33% tells you nothing. You need to be open minded and look properly at a school.

[ReallyTired]

"33% is not truly dire, there are schools out there getting below 25%."

No one has said that its the worst results in the UK. However 33% is well below the floor standards that the goverment expects a comprehensive to get. There is no way I would be happy with a child of mine going to a school with such low standards. (Unfortrunately many parents have no choice, it doesn't mean that they are happy.)

[BertrandRussell]

It's a good solid OFSTED. The dip in results is bad- and will probably trigger a visit from inspectors who will want to know detailed reasons why and detailed plans to stop it happening again. If it is a blip rather than the beginning of a downward trajectory, then the school will know exactly why it happened and how to put it right- and should be happy to tell you. We had a serious blip in 2014 - a perfect storm of the new marking systems, a particularly difficult and low attaining cohort and a couple of very specific staffing issues. Last year was challenging- but we were back on track in 2015.
I would speculate that it's probably a school with not many involved parents for various reasons, so they should be welcoming you with open arms. If they aren't, I would be concerned they have something to hide.

[perplexo]

It is not an academy. Camden has been loathe to approve these. There is only one in the borough, backed by UCL. So some say it is dire and special measures await, others say it is not so bad. I wish this whole thing were les of a life gamble.

[Foxyloxy1plus1]

Is it an academy?

If so, is it by choice?

[yeOldeTrout]

33% is not truly dire, there are schools out there getting below 25%.

Our nearest high school got 33% one year & 51% the year after. they continue to bumble (long term) around 43-44%. DC don't like local school, but I would have been okay with them going there.

I know high achievers who go there & do well; Out of that 33% year was a kid who went onto Oxbridge (33% is not low enough to get a boost into Oxbridge, btw).

Good luck with your decisions, OP.

[WildStallions]

www.education.gov.uk/cgi-bin/schools/performance/group.pl?qtype=LA&superview=sec&view=aat&set=2&tab=150&no=202&sort=ks4_14.ptac5emav&ord=desc

You can see that schools in Camden get between 76% and 44% of middle achieves to pass, and 58% is pretty average.

Low achievers again it's very average.

And only for high achievers is it quite low.

[BertrandRussell]

It also has a very high % of ESL children and children on FSM. Is it possible that the low results this year could have been because of a group of refugee children joining the school who had catching up to do with their English? There is really nothing to worry about at all in the OFSTED report- rather the opposite, in fact.

[WildStallions]

And here's the school compared to other schools in the borough:

[WildStallions]

Ok, here's the data on Regent High Scool: www.education.gov.uk/cgi-bin/schools/performance/school.pl?urn=100051

I don't see anything concerning there:

9% Low achievers passed
58% of middle achievers passed
85% of high achievers passed.

Yes, those stats aren't the best in the world. But they're really very average. Lots of schools are getting similar stats to that.

Their value added is 1012. Anything over 1000 is fine.

These stats are all very similar to the school I was happy to send my DC to.

It just has a poor cohort relative to neighbouring schools.

[Needanadulttotalkto]

Any news on this? I was under the impression any school with under roughly 45% was put into special measures?

[perplexo]

There is another school 1.5 miles away that was oversubscribed and then lost it. After three years flailing around they have a new and determined head who met with me right away and took me round the school. He thinks the school will be undersubscribed for the 2nd year running and we will get in. He talks a good talk about how he wants to get it back up there within a couple of years. So that is hopeful. At least he met me and told me what he thought needed doing at the school. It is a much more liberal, creative one than the one with such poor results. That one is a very joyless school, no posters on the walls, a head's down kind of atmosphere, and apparently a head who doesn't communicate! I will name the school as I have nc'ed for this. Regent High School. I would be interested in anyone's analysis.