House prices to fall 14% next year

[GreenestValley]

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/house-prices-forecast-to-drop-by-14-next-year-lbj77clv2

What does everyone think? I’m looking to buy my first home and this makes me very nervous. Stamp duty reduction is obviously a benefit but if prices drop by this much waiting would be a far better choice... Eek. Anyone else in same position?

[missdemeanors]

@JesusInTheCabbageVan
I wonder how much the Times is selling that crystal ball for

^

This!

[Bunnyfuller]

As interest rates rise, the market will slow, and prices will drop. It’s happened before under the Tories and we’re drifting towards it again.

[AshRJ]

@HeyBlaby

People need also to consider the rise in interest rates, if you wait the house may be cheaper, but it may be much more difficult to get a mortgage, the interests rates are going to be much higher and people will be desperate to not sell.

Very true

[AshRJ]

@Nothappyatwork

Yes but one of my friends is an estate agent and the amount of commission they get is buttons like literally 40 quid for every house they sell and then they get taxed on the 40 quid.

Ouch!! Def not great! The % commission this guy gets isn’t so bad but that’s only if he manages to sell a house a month.

[HeyBlaby]

People need also to consider the rise in interest rates, if you wait the house may be cheaper, but it may be much more difficult to get a mortgage, the interests rates are going to be much higher and people will be desperate to not sell.

[Nothappyatwork]

@AshRJ

Sad thing is people do listen to this and then find they are stuck finding more money for a deposit or priced out.

I have a friend who was selling and she’d have EAs suggesting price reductions (apparently they read papers).. then she sold at above asking price. Interestingly they tried to get her to do a commission scheme based on how much they sold the house for…. So had she reduced it .. they’d have gotten more commission for selling what was her original price..

Yes but one of my friends is an estate agent and the amount of commission they get is buttons like literally 40 quid for every house they sell and then they get taxed on the 40 quid.

[AshRJ]

@brianixon

ZOMBIE THREAD
So experts were wrong by massive amount.
Price Trend just keep rising, sometimes faster sometimes it pauses.
Buy a home for your family and enjoy it - Not an investment. Join that trend, neither you nor I can alter it.

Sad thing is people do listen to this and then find they are stuck finding more money for a deposit or priced out.

I have a friend who was selling and she’d have EAs suggesting price reductions (apparently they read papers).. then she sold at above asking price. Interestingly they tried to get her to do a commission scheme based on how much they sold the house for…. So had she reduced it .. they’d have gotten more commission for selling what was her original price..

[Nothappyatwork]

@JesusInTheCabbageVan

I wonder how much the Times is selling that crystal ball for

There’s another thread going on am I being unreasonable about how apparently elon musk is predicted the demise of the entire tech industry.
even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[JesusInTheCabbageVan]

I wonder how much the Times is selling that crystal ball for

[brianixon]

ZOMBIE THREAD
So experts were wrong by massive amount.
Price Trend just keep rising, sometimes faster sometimes it pauses.
Buy a home for your family and enjoy it - Not an investment. Join that trend, neither you nor I can alter it.

[Isthislove4ever]

@GreenestValley what did you do in the end? Wait or buy then? Hope it worked out either way.

[FurierTransform]

Thread is an excellent demonstration as to why any house price forecasts even from reputable sources like The Times can be safely ignored :D

[Paulina23]

@earsup

Here in trendy east london...they still fighting over purpose built 2 bed flats...they sell in hours...waiting lists for them....buyers seem to have a lot of cash to splash...expensive cars, buggies, clothes, sitting in the cafes all day....all mid 30's with children...they getting the cash somewhere....!!

Great investigation work, managed to observe the in and out of flat for sale, check real estate booking system, the envelop that goes to seal bid, just have to confirm origin of funds now.

[earsup]

Here in trendy east london...they still fighting over purpose built 2 bed flats...they sell in hours...waiting lists for them....buyers seem to have a lot of cash to splash...expensive cars, buggies, clothes, sitting in the cafes all day....all mid 30's with children...they getting the cash somewhere....!!

[AshRJ]

Thanks @Viorela hope so too! especially as we’d already started packing and with a young child it’s hard to keep things clean and tidy!😁

[Viorela]

Thank you everyone for you comments and wishes.

@AshRJ I agree that all this is media driven just to create confusion. I hope you find a buyer for your house soon!

[GreenLunchBox]

Haha, I thought this was a recent thread until one of the posts said Furlough is coming to an end and I thought "who the hell is still on Furlough?!" then the penny dropped.

As an aside I'm so glad not to hear the word Furlough any more.Those were weird times.

[Aop]

Good areas never really suffer. They freeze for a period & nothing much moves, then they thaw & carry on.

[Saz12]

I feel the house market is partly set by interest rates & mortgage availability, and partly by expectations/ speculation! If people think prices are going to keep increasing in 12 months time, then they’ll offer more, if they feel prices are going to start falling within the next 12 months then they’ll offer less. So then prices do actually start to fall because everyone is offering less and buyers are being told to expect less. Based on nothing whatsoever.

[StageRage]

ZOMBIE THREAD

Which nevertheless demonstrates the pointlessness of prediction, and the maintenance of high prices.

The Halifax said today that the market is ‘cooling’. By which they mean prices are not rising as fast as they have been. NOT that they are falling.

Which they said was unlikely while demand outstrips supply.

As a pp said.

[JenniferPlantain]

Well, I guess that article (from 2020) was a load of bollocks.

[SD25]

@Pyewhacket

House prices to fall 14% next year : how many times have I heard that ?.

well the article was two years ago so you've heard it before ;-)

[Pyewhacket]

House prices to fall 14% next year : how many times have I heard that ?.

[Nothappyatwork]

The other argument as well that the landlords paying for maintenance and you’re not when you rent it is completely out the window these days the landlord simply just do not maintaining the property’s, what’s the even as a renter you end up paying for decor and upgrading fixtures and fittings that no you shouldn’t have to but you do because you need it to be comfortable.

[AshRJ]

This is an interesting read. We've got our house on the market in West London (East Acton) and its so frustrating to read articles like this. We've had 3 offers fall through, due to finances of individuals or the buyers backed out last min because they believe that prices will drop (their words not mine). It sets unrealistic expectations, no seller is going to want to lose money, especially if they are like us and need the money to buy our next property.

I honestly think a lot of this is media driven, all around me prices are either steady or going up. @Nothappyatwork so true, renting to me is money down the drain, buying is slowly building your equity.

@Viorela @Yellownotblue - this is so true, the only difference in London is the prices just go up slower OR people take their property off the market. Honestly, if we didn't want to move, I'd be tempted to take ours off the market - its very frustrating when it falls through.