It does seem that some schools have far greater movement than others. E.g. The school DD is currently at is an Outstanding (in inner London...) and is consistently top 3% for KS1 and KS2 results. Until the intake was enlarged last year, the furthest distance offered was around 250m (now just over 350m). The school is hugely oversubscribed. Everything round us has been demolished and replaced with blocks of 2- and 3-bedroom flats and high-density family housing, including another primary school.
However, there were four places available going into Y1 last September due to families moving away.
I guess part of the trick is identifying which, if any, schools in a particular area have high mobility.
I grew up in N London/Hertfordshire and my instinct was that the nearer to London, the more chopping and changing, though that could be totally wrong. I spoke to Hants Admissions again briefly on Friday (somebody more specifically knowledgable will call back next week) but the woman I spoke to said that someone in Admissions should be able to give data about mobility and waiting lists for specific schools. Perhaps Herts can too? Again, no certainty but it'll give some idea as to which areas are fairly fluid.
tiggy thanks for the response. It makes sense. It just seems to me that if it's a question of demographics, it could have been pre-empted 6 years ago when the maternity units were swamped with women registering pregnancies!
springrain we don't really know yet! It's been a case of not knowing whether the tail is wagging the dog or not. DH needs to commute into London every day for work, the DC are still very young so the total commute needs to be manageable; we need good communication links to family and friends (Gloucestershire/Hampshire/Buckinghamshire/Dorset - and Kent coast...); but we also need a decent school. And we need to be able to afford it. We're not sure what comes first. Basically so far researching Farnham/Guildford/Godalming areas out towards Alton/Winchester areas in Hampshire - which is exactly where everyone else moves to and doesn't move from. If you have any alternative suggestions I'd love to hear them - feel free to PM so I don't derail the OP's thread any more or else I expect I will be starting a thread of my own in the next couple of weeks and would be grateful for a response there.
AllOverIt where did you move/are moving to in Dorset? Home-schooling sounds brave. I'd do it if I had to temporarily (teach HE though...) but I would not enjoy it and neither would my DC. Glad you got a KS2 place sorted.