China is ending its 1 child policy

[hairbrushbedhair]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-34665539

[Shakshuka]

The One Child Policy had some effect but not as much as thought.

Fertility had already decreased significantly before the policy was introduced. I also know Chinese demographers who think the current fertility rate of China is underestimated due to the under-reporting of births.

If you look at Taiwan, made up nearly entirely of Han Chinese, where people have as many children as they wish, it has the lowest fertility in the world - one child per woman!

Chinese in Hong Kong, Macao and Singapore all have 'lowest-low' fertility well below 1.5 children per woman.

I also don't think that China will be too successful in increasing fertility now. What they need to do is reform their public pensions and face up to the fact that an ageing population is going to happen.

[Poofus]

I think that spike on the graph above 1961-68 is post-Great Leap Forward Famine fertility increasing, so it's to be expected that it would then begin to tail off.

I do agree that it's unlikely that there will be a big increase as a result of this policy shift, but I'm a bit at the comparisons with HK, Macau and Taiwan, which clearly don't have large rural populations like Mainland China.

[Shakshuka]

The bump is postponed births from the Great Leap Forward but the decrease was happening before the one child policy was introduced in 1979.

The fertility in HK, Macao etc probably equals urban fertility in China so about one child per woman. China's total fertility is about 1.6 (which is probably an under estimate) as its driven up both by its rural population and its non Han population. Urbanization and modernization more than govt policy are what have led to China's extraordinary fertility decline. Just like it did all over East Asia.

[Poofus]

Urbanization and modernization more than govt policy are what have led to China's extraordinary fertility decline.

I agree. But I do think that the rural (and migrant worker) birthdate is under reported, and that this policy shift might allow that to correct itself somewhat. What you don't see in the other E Asian countries you mention is the huge regional (and, as you say, ethnic) variation in fertility. In some parts of rural Guangdong, say, the birth rate seems much higher than in, say, rural Heilongjiang. So I think there is unlikely to be a very obvious "nationwide" pattern.

[Shakshuka]

The birth rate is almost certainly under-estimated due to under-reporting in rural areas.

Yeah, I agree that in a country of 1.4 billion there are bound to be variations.

I read that fertility in Shanghai is 0.7 children per woman!

[CarriesBucketOfBlood]

In some parts of rural Guangdong, say, the birth rate seems much higher than in, say, rural Heilongjiang.

I think this is very likely to be because the south of China is much more ethnically diverse than the north, and many minority groups are exempt from the policy. I think amongs Han people, the birth rate is likely to be more consistent.

[Poofus]

No, I was only really talking about the Han - I don't think rural Guangdong is very ethnically diverse (at least, not like Guangxi or Guizhou). I think there is a different model of fertility there compared with the north, with a higher birthrate. In my experience, there tends to be a higher birthrate among rural migrants from Guangdong to elsewhere in China, too.

[CarriesBucketOfBlood]

I know that Guangdong has the highest gender disparity amongst children. 130 boys to 100 girls. I'm not sure of the exact reasons but there are definitely some serious pressures that mark Guangdong out as a special case.

[CarriesBucketOfBlood]

I'm not sure if this link will work on computers but maybe. Some of the translations are off, but it's amazing nonetheless. A selection of family planning propaganda. mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4NTY0MDUzMQ==&mid=400398765&idx=1&sn=f033a713168a2fc2864871753899fe04&scene=0#wechat_redirect