Conservative/UKIP Coalition & EU Referendum – HOW?

[Isitmebut]

I seriously believe that I have heard more political mistruths in this General Election than any other – and one of the latest is Labour ‘scaremongering’ about a right wing coalition including UKIP, WHICH IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE, based on several reasons – the main one being the UKIP vote itself.

• UKIP take 2-3 Conservative votes to 1 Labour vote in contested marginal seats.
  

• UKIP currently polling 12% to 15%, inflicted huge electoral damage on the Conservatives in 2010, with just 3% on the General Election votes, with post election analysis showing that around 26,000 UKIP votes across around 20 odd key marginals, made the difference between a Conservative government and a Coalition, each fighting their own political corner.
  

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/7693877/General-Election-2010-Ukip-challenge-cost-Tories-a-Commons-majority.html

• Conservatives due to voter numbers within English electoral boundaries, need to be around several percent ahead of the opinion polls in 2015 to potentially win the same amount of seats as Labour, as evidenced by the 2005 and 2010 General Election results;
  

In 2005 Labour with 35% of the popular vote had a 66 seat MAJORITY government, 2010 Conservatives with 36% of the vote had a 20 seat MINORITY government.

So even if Labour loses 53 Westminster parliamentary seats in Scotland (where the Conservative ‘panda’ has one seat), Labour is still likely to be the LARGEST PARTY and form the next 2015 government thanks to the SNP.

And this is where Labour disingenuously tells everyone the Conservatives are SNP ‘scaremongering'; but what do the current FACTS show, using the Poll of Polls Sky News took the current opinion polls and turned them into Westminster seats.

Conservatives;.277 seats
Labour;...........277 seats
SNP:................53 seats
Lib Dems;..........18 seats
UKIP..................2 seats
Other;..............18 seats (including Plaid Cymru and Greens)

So as Westminster has around 650 M.P.’s and a functional UK government would therefore need around 325 MP’s , can anyone spot the Miliband mistruth and misdirection in pretending that a Conservative and UKIP party (with or without the Lib Dems) could form a majority government and put through any legislation?

Especially when the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens have said that they will not support a Conservative government NO MATTER WHAT they propose?

Even if the Conservatives were self serving tossers like the Labour Party in Westminster and Holyrood for years and OPPOSED EVERYTHING; every one of Miliband’s 1970’s style failed socialilisim/big state policies, shared in ‘values’ by the SNP and Plaid Cymru nationalist vote, WOULD GET THROUGH and reverse the economic/investment/jobs/deficit reduction recovery.

[Isitmebut]

AwesomeAlmonds .... that is an option, but I believe said that they will work (take their list of demands) with any party - spot the trend? lol

Cameron could offer a civil partnership, never mind a coalition with either or both (if need be), the fact is EVEN IF the Lib Dems joined in as a foursome - the FACTS show on the current poll, a combined Labour/SNP parliamentary coalition of ANY kind and across all nations is 330 - so no matter a Labour led government or opposition, WITH THAT MAJORITY (in a 650 seat Westminster) they have the ability to run/block it on a shifting left basis.

[Isitmebut]

I heard again in the Daily politics Special this afternoon talk about their 'fully costed' spending pledges, including the near £20 billion(?) they will save the UK by coming out of the E.U.

I'm guessing that haven't done the math above either, as unless they get a LOT more Westminster seats exclusively from the Labour Party under their 'party of the people' banner versus Labour's 13-year record - without a Conservative majority, they won't raise a single penny from that particular cash cow - never mind get an EU Referendum.

[Isitmebut]

The above post is of course meant to be a guessing game .... and the prize goes to those who understood the above was about 'UKIP'. D'oh.

Time for tea a-g-a-i-n.

[Isitmebut]

The statement last night by the SNP's Ms Sturgeon AGAIN confirming that in the very likely event of another hung parliament no matter how many seats over Labour Cameron had, she would never vote with the Conservatives in order to run the country/legislate - shows the threat to our democracy is not a numerically impossible Conservative/UKIP administration threatened by Mr Miliband.

And the threat would not just be on democracy, but on the economy & social issues, with mainly divisive policies putting; England vs Scottish Nationalists, citizen vs the administration, business vs government, employee vs employer, public sector vs taxpayer, landlord vs tenant etc - as taxes and national debt kept rising.

"UK’s jobs boom would not survive a Left-wing war on business"

"By making the economy less competitive and discouraging firms from spending, job creation, Britain’s greatest economic achievement, would be dealt a devastating blow"

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11546792/UKs-jobs-boom-would-not-survive-a-Left-wing-war-on-business.html

[Isitmebut]

Well 'it takes two to Tango', and it appears Ed Miliband has had his SNP dance card marked for 5-years.

So with Ed's political 'masters', his gangly style and new reputation as a ladies stud muffin, the amazing Mr Ed must be relieved Ms Sturgeon is now in charge - as from her rhetoric, she has got two leftie feet. lol

”Ed Miliband suggested forming coalition government with SNP in 2010”

”Sir Andrew Stunell says Labour made offer to work with Nationalists during coalition negotiations”
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11554784/Ed-Miliband-suggested-forming-coalition-government-with-SNP-in-2010.html

”Ed Miliband boasted that the Scottish National Party would help Labour remain in power during the failed talks to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats after the 2010 general election.”

”Mr Miliband was a member of the four-person team who were conducting negotiations with the Liberal Democrats during the chaotic four days which followed the 2010 general election.”

”In an interview with The Independent this week, he (Ed Miliband) refused to rule out doing a deal with the SNP to form an "illegitimate" government in the event that he won fewer seats than the Conservatives but was able to reach a majority with the votes of the Scottish party.”

"We had a discussion with the Labour Party in which we did point this out to them. It was Ed Balls, Ed Miliband, Peter Mandelson, Andrew Adonis, Harriet Harman. They were very gung ho about us joining them”

"When we said ‘The numbers don’t add up,’ they said, this may come back to haunt me: ‘Don’t worry, we’ve got the nationalists.”


The fact the deficit denying Prime Minister at the time Gordon Brown says "No deal, no coalition, no compromise with the SNP" – confirms ‘are you asking, are you dancing’, coalition of sorts for two parties with not an ideological fag paper between them, is an unsaid but DONE DEAL.
news.sky.com/story/1472165/big-clunking-fist-rides-to-the-rescue

[Isitmebut]

The Sky poll-of-polls today suggest that the SNP are likely to get all 57 Westminster seats in Scotland, and Labour Scotland's Jim Murphy is saying that means that the SNP will allow the Conservatives in by the back door.

That poll does indeed put the Conservatives several seats in front of Labour, and if those polls were reflected in the results on May 7th, the Conservatives could be the largest party by a Westminster dribble, not quite as much as a gaggle. lol

HOWEVER the Queen has made it known that there is no point either Miliband or Cameron pitching up on May 8th saying 'we are the largest party, pass the No. 10 keys and mace thing' - as she has insisted the largest party has to be able to form some kind of working majority.

Net result it still matters not a jot if in Scotland the Labour and the SNP parties share the last 'hot' 7 Westminster seats, if the UK electorate is still offering the main two parties around 280 Westminster seats each - the math shows only Mr Miliband and his rather wanton political partner (lol) CAN form a government, especially as the Lib Dems face a Scottish wipe out as well.

I fully understand why Scotland WOULD prefer a Scottish nationalist party representing them in Westminster, making a so similar Labour Party redundant in Scotland, but as the Conservative captain sensible 'alternative' will never be an option, no matter what good they did in power - its a bit shitty for the rest of us if no option other than to accept the party that crashed the 2008 reg car, and the new learner co driver within, to deal with the financial and social problems that we still have.

[Isitmebut]

The top line should read .... all 59 Westminster seats ...best put the kettle on as that time of 'brain fade' day...next I'll start liking any man in a claret and blue football kit. Bless.

[Isitmebut]

The continual denials by Ed Miliband that he will not do any deals with the SNP while members of his Shadow Cabinet say OF COURSE we will have to to deals with the SNP (as how else will we get any legislation, never mind a Queens Speech through parliament) is astounding.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/politics/2368500-Miliband-No-Labour-SNP-Agreement-HOW

As it came across in the Scottish leaders debate, Labour will tell mistruth after mistruth, to get back in power - and the SNP causing a constitutional nightmare after May 8th is not just a Labour type scare story, it is a FACT -based on current UK voting intensions and what the SNP have told us, they will only support a Labour minority government.

[Spinflight]

Could you please stop replying to your own posts?

Makes my mousewheel finger ache scrolling past them all trying to find some sense...

[Tanith]

Labour have never said they will form a coalition with anyone. They refused to form a coalition after the last election and they have ruled out forming a coalition with the SNP.

All you and your Conservative party friends are doing is showing everyone that you do not listen.

You are only bleating on about a Labour/SNP coalition to distract attention from the Conservative party's coalition intentions. They are the ones that formed a coalition during the last 5 years after all.

[Isitmebut]

Spinflight ..... the 'please do not repeat my post' might have been relevant right up to the point Tanith posted.

Tanith .... if you read either the opening post and look at the electoral math, or the link a few posts above EXPLAINING why the Labour-SNP alliance is not just a theory but a necessity for them to govern (albeit not a democratic one for England if the SNP won't vote with the Conservatives no matter WHAT they try to legislate) - you may get off your high horse about what Ed Miliband said.

Especially if what his election guru Lucy Powell said today on Radio 5 is true, EVEN when cast in stone;
"He stands by his pledges and his promises. I don't think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he's carved them into stone means, you know, that he absolutely is not going to break them or anything like that."

So Blame Mr Miliband not me, as I started both posts, explaining both-ways-to-Friday, the Conservative/UKIP and Labour/SNP coalition potential, after he said the first was possible and the second wasn't, which is clearly rollocks.

FYI leftie Labour in 2010 wanted the further leftie Lib Dems into a coalition, but the numbers didn't stack up for a majority - and so Cameron invited Mr Clegg into a formal coalition (which was accepted in the national interest) as so much had to be done - and just as well as Labour, against the national interests, threatened to and did, OPPOSE everything that got the UK back on its feet.

[hackmum]

OP, we all know you're not the sharpest tool in the box, but you've surpassed yourself this time.

For a start, the Labour Party currently has 41 seats in Scotland, so it's not in a position to lose 53.

Second, you omit to mention the DUP, which could well bolster a Tory government.

Finally, if the SNP tried to do anything "extreme" such as block the Labour Party renewing Trident, the Tories could just vote with the Labour party, so the scaremongering is completely unnecessary.

[Isitmebut]

Hackman .... not really, apparently the SNP have over 53% of the polls in Scotland (mentioned 5-times a day on the news), so in line for over 53 of the 59 Westminster MP's in Scotland.

The DUP I believe had only 8- seats

And Trident is just one policy.

[Isitmebut]

As Westminster has 650 M.P.s.

As either the Conservatives or Labour needs around 325 seats for a majority.

As both the Conservatives and Labour are polling around 280 seats each.

As the SNP who will only work with Labour whether the Labour Party is the largest party or not - are polling 53 or more seats, out of the 59 Scottish WEstminster seats.

Labour....280 seats
SNP.........53 seats.
Total...... 333 seats at least.

Now do the math again and see while Miliband is lying about any 'deals' until his majority over the Conservatives are confirmed giving him Westminster legitimacy, so if 50 odd million English voters don't want to be ruled by the whims of 4 million mainly nationalists hoping to split up the UK from Scotland - don't make Labour who unbalanced/wrecked our economy, the largest party.

If you think Labour did a great job for 13-years with all that money to spend, enjoy a lame duck 5-year parliament, with internal Ed-to-Ed fights, and external battles with the SNP on the details of every policy. IMO.

[Icimoi]

Excellent article on the truth behind the supposed economic "competence" of the Conservatives here

[Itchylegs]

Yeah, it is you...but Crikey you are a silly ideologue, or a machine.

[Itchylegs]

Ici oik indeed, a little bit of clarit amidst all this nonsense. The UK public are treated like idiots with all this personality bacon sandwich eating nonsense.

[Isitmebut]

Icimoi ..... I have not looked at your link yet, but if you want to wake up to Labour's record in power, PASSING ON all their problems, this will knock your socks off.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/politics/2369731-A-Labour-Governments-1997-2010-record-in-power-lest-we-forget

It completely blows a hole in the 5-year lies that Labour 'are for working families and not the rich and powerful' as the poorest came off worse - and asks how can Miliband and Balls at the Treasury back then, together/fighting with Sturgeon and Salmond for the next 5-years, carry on this recovery - they have fought at every step.

[Tanith]

I can't help noticing that YOU started that thread you linked to.

Hardly Knock your socks off stuff...

[Isitmebut]

Tanith ... compared to factual quality of your input, I'm a fecking socket scientist. lol

To fess up, I didn't know the Politics Board had been started again a while back, and would have posted it (and others) on there instead.

So when Mr Miliband uttered another untruth, it was a good excuse to start another post over there from a different perspective.

No Brownie points for not cutting and pasting the original then, and adding more Scottish 'stuff'?.

A tough audience, 'please yourself missus'.