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Missing MH370 thread cont...

949 replies

Pennies · 15/03/2014 10:43

Old thread here

New thread here.

OP posts:
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NeverTalksToStrangers · 15/03/2014 13:05

You also have to remember that it was the middle of the night. Many of the passengers would be asleep. If a plane was to fly below radars, perfect time to do so.

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ParaTrooper · 15/03/2014 13:10

Marking my place. I dont know coffee but I wondered the same thing.

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member · 15/03/2014 13:13

Shock at overnight developments!

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Katinkia · 15/03/2014 13:16

I'm getting a bit disturbed by this story now. :/

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themaltesefalcon · 15/03/2014 13:16

So sad and disturbing, all of this. How many of those families will be praying for an impossible "Raid on Entebbe"-style rescue mission? Cannot imagine their anguish.

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GoldieMumbles · 15/03/2014 13:17

Zoiks - everyone's moved. I'll repost my other posts from the other thread trying to answer questions.

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GoldieMumbles · 15/03/2014 13:17

Too cold for the bike ride we had planned so I'm popping on for a few minutes.

"it was a pilot
-explains knowledge of gap between aircomms allowing the 15 min gap"

This is now what has got me confused. The quickest way to turn the ADS-B off is to pull out the circuit breaker. There's a big panel at the back of the cockpit full of circuit breakers - electronic fuses - that allow you to switch off the electrical supply to just about anything on the aircraft. The thing that doesn't add up to me is that 'he' (I'm boldly making assumptions it was a man - sorry) pulled the circuit breaker from the ADS-B transponder but not the ACARS. The circuit breakers will be in the same place, so why didn't 'he' do both at the same time. Why wait 15 minutes between them?

"why would you take a 777"

With the intent of using it for something else later, like flying it into the Petronas Towers, for example.

"How on earth can a 777 fly undetected for 7 hours?"

I really don't think it can unless it stayed out overwater. So that leaves two possibilities. 1) It stayed over water; 2) it was detected and that's why they are now looking wherever they are.

And all that talk of the USS Kidd going out to the Indian Ocean also turns out to be wrong - it's heading to the Straits of Malacca! So much contradictory info. But with the US Navy sending a P-8A Poseidon aircraft (which is a navy version of the Boeing 737 with lots of detection equipment in it and on it), it's a fair bet they've narrowed it down quite a lot - or they are really trying to eliminate one strong possibility (I don't know which but would speculate that it's the Andaman Islands theory)

I'm beginning to wonder if one of the pilots tried to take it over, pulled the transponder circuit breaker, the other noticed and they ended up fighting in the cockpit. That might explain the 15 minute gap, until the other pilot had been overpowered.

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GoldieMumbles · 15/03/2014 13:17

"Ah true about the locking out. I thought that there were always at least 2 in the cockpit on long haul, as there is a navigator as well I thought? Or is that just on the big double deckers and the 747s? "

No, aircraft haven't had a navigator for a very long time. They're all flown by a 2-person crew. Longer flights have one or two reserve crew for the cruise portion of flight. The locking out theory isn't possible and isn't as big of a concern as people think. I can't say more.

"He is convinced the airplane has not crashed and has landed somewhere. He thinks probably in a country that lacks the ability to track what's flying in and out.
However my dad is certain America knows where the plane is and he also said it wouldn't be any good if they were planning on flying it into a developed country as it would be picked up and recognised and shot down before reaching its target.
He said it could only be used to either fly into another airplane or to crash into a target such as a boat out at sea."

All very true. It's probably about the only thing big enough to sink an aircraft carrier if you fly into the side of one.

"My dad says that you can't decompress part of the plane and not the other, the oxygen masks would fall for everyone. Is that true? "

Yes. An aircraft is either pressurised or it's not. You can't just pressurise different bits.

"Which countries could they have landed in that wouldn't have noticed?"

Quite a few. I mentioned Yemen and Somalia a while back but it looks like there wasn't enough fuel for that. You need a country that won't notice or is sympathetic to your aims; a 6000 foot long paved strip (a lot more if you plan to take off again) and preferably a hangar to hide it in.

"Can you really fly 'under the radar'? If so, how low is this?"

Yes, but it depends on the radar and how far away from it you are.

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MyNameIsKenAdams · 15/03/2014 13:17

Just checking in on the new thread.

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RedToothBrush · 15/03/2014 13:19

I really can't believe that America, or even China, has been unable to locate the plane.

I believe the Boeing 777 holds the record for the longest flight in the world. It effectively means that if you wanted to use the plane to 'hit' any target in the world you probably could, if you could land it and refuel it.

The Boeing 777 is also comparatively easy to fly and land in comparison with other commercial jets. It has a very good safety record; in part due to its ability to land of very short runways. I think its possible to land on land aircraft runways.

Whats the best way to hide an elephant? Hide it in a herd of elephants. The good old, hide in plain sight theory.

One of the arguments against the hijacking theory was that it would have been spotted by one of the nearby countries - especially since there are a lot of disputed borders in the region - without being challenged in someway. However its already been established that its not uncommon for commercial planes to not be tracked as they are in Europe or the US (I think someone upthread said that often the only way the ground knows where a plane is, is because the pilot tells them). If this is true then it wouldn't be unusual for a commercial airliner to be on radar screens and to be ignored as normal. They are looking for smaller jets or jets behaving in an unexpected way. Particularly if it was on a regularly flight path, which we know to be the case.

We now do know that the Malaysian Military DID see the plane. At this time they may not have clocked that the plane was missing yet - but they didn't challenge or question it. Why?

Other nations have commented that the Malaysian government hasn't yet asked for their military radar information. Which is odd. But even more odd is the fact that these countries, given that there is a plane with 239 missing people on it, haven't felt the need to check their own data and volunteer anything freely! They have to be asked. It makes you wonder who has something to hide - not necessarily because they are guilty - but more because they know a plane flew through their airspace and they didn't investigate it.

Whilst Europe and America are frightened of a plane attacking them, there isn't the same level of expectation and fear in Asia. They are more bothered about other threats to their national security. Admitting that they are lax on this would be hugely embarrassing.

Going back to where the plane is now, you are effectively looking for a needle in a haystack. Yes the chinese and the americans have satellite, but this often isn't 100% global coverage and it is often focused on points of interest rather than generalised images. Planes in flight are also moving, so this makes it more difficult to work out which plane is which. Especially if they are moving on normal routes. Then you need to factor in, this was a night flight. Again it makes it more difficult to see.

The weakest place in the whole scenario is where it landed if it didn't crash. It makes it more likely to be seen. But again its like looking for a needle in a haystack. If the Boeing 777 really can be landed on a light aircraft landing strip, that makes it very difficult. You could find all the know runways in the world... but it could have landed on an unknown one or even on an empty section of road.

As for who it was - two obvious suspects are Islamic or Chinese terrorists. But if its Islamic terrorists, nicking a plane with chinese citizens on, is liable to cause a diplomatic problem. China is usually neutral on matters of international security and says its up to the nation state to sort out... Of course this might not bother the terrorists as they have clearly identified that Asian tracking of planes is a bit shit and there is a lack of cooperation in the area (And that Malaysian unlike other airlines didn't subscribe to Boeing's satellite tracking) making it easier to hijack. Chinese terrorists may seem more likely. But the resources and information needed to pull this off, is worrying. Does it need government level knowledge? Certainly you need someone with very in depth knowledge of aviation and probably understanding of how the politics of the area works. Its not a simple operation on the face of it. Do we really think someone could just get that 'lucky' and plan to fly a plane that far without a hell of a lot of thought going into it? Its odd.

(Btw, anyone thought about the fact that the World Trade Centre is due to open to the public in a couple of months).

Did they need someone on the plane? Not necessarily. Its possible it could have been done it remotely... though disabling of transponders etc at different times does suggest someone did it manually, though not necessarily. Though home flight simulators and a need for someone to have very good knowledge of the industry are suspicious.

As for passengers trying to signal for help... Mobile phones only work where there is mobile phone reception below a certain height. A remote
enough location and its no issue. Plus, how many people sleep on a night flight and have the foggiest idea of where they are or how long a long haul flight should take. If the pilot told you, you had been delayed or had to reroute you would take it at face value. By the time you were on the ground, it doesn't take long for people to board...

...its all perhaps not as odd and unlikely as you might think. Especially if the authorities around the world are shitting their pants and want to prevent widespread panic or even unrest.

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traininthedistance · 15/03/2014 13:22

Possible destinations for either terrorist strike / hiding plane that have been mentioned so far (eg by news outlets or on other thread):

  • Diego Garcia (US military / intelligence base)
  • possible Chinese intelligence base in the Cocos Islands (near Andaman Islands)
  • a -Stan near the Chinese border
  • a country with poor radar coverage and unstable governmental control, eg Yemen or Somalia
  • into the sea, motivation either suicide/deliberate loss of whatever cargo is aboard/pilot trying to sabotage hijacker/crash on running out of fuel


Surely if it was any of the first four then more must be known about what's happened to the plane. Is the final one more likely though?
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BriocheBriocheBrioche · 15/03/2014 13:23

Marking place on new thread

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traininthedistance · 15/03/2014 13:24

goldie "The locking out theory isn't possible and isn't as big of a concern as people think. I can't say more."

Does that mean that whatever pilot was locked out would have been able to get back in, presumably by an emergency code or route?

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MyNameIsKenAdams · 15/03/2014 13:26

Is it possible to change the identitity of a plane? Is there a chance that this plane could undergo physical or electronic adaptations in order to send it into the Air as a "safe" plane?

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GoldieMumbles · 15/03/2014 13:26

""I think it's odd that not one passenger tried to make contact with anybody, unless they did and we haven't been told."

Yes, me too. It just doesn't add up."

We went through this on the previous thread. Above 25,000ft there is no hope of a mobile signal reaching the ground. Out in the ocean there is no mobile coverage as there are no cell towers. Phones can appear to continue to ring if you call them because some mobile operators do that while the cell tower tries to locate the phone itself. It's a red herring and a total dead end.

Phones don't work on planes when they're in flight (cruise) folks. They just don't.

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Perihelion · 15/03/2014 13:27

I think that if it's not pilot suicide, with the aim to make the plane unrecoverable, that if the plane went South/West rather than North, the US could be responsible for shooting it out of the sky. China appears to think that America knows far more than they are sharing.

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GoldieMumbles · 15/03/2014 13:27

"Does that mean that whatever pilot was locked out would have been able to get back in"

Yes.

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GoldieMumbles · 15/03/2014 13:30

"Is it possible to change the identitity of a plane?"

Not in the air. A plane sends out a signal, called a 'squawk', that is unique to that aircraft. It is pre-programmed into the avionics. The only way to change the code is to change the electronic box and they aren't easy to get hold of and cost hundreds of thousands and it's not easy (pretty impossible, actually) to get at the boxes. Don't believe what you see int he movies!

If it's landed and is at an airfield somewhere, then it's considerably easier but you'd need an avionics engineer and someone who could reprogramme the box.

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GoldieMumbles · 15/03/2014 13:32

"not sure if this has been said but wouldn't the plane need refueling if they were to try to use it as some kind of weapon?"

Yes. And you'd need a long runway to get it up again (I don't have the aircraft perfromance manuals I'd need to make the calculations at home - they're in the office)

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PublicEnemyNumeroUno · 15/03/2014 13:33

Those poor passengers, how absolutely terrifying.

Wont they have had those screens on board with a map showing where the plane is going? Imagine how scary that must have been :(

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slugseatlettuce · 15/03/2014 13:33

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

GoldieMumbles · 15/03/2014 13:35

"and (assuming that ACARS on/off switch is actually located in the flight deck), it struck me that they say it was turned off 20 minutes before the last voice communications from the pilots"

I don't know how they know it was turned off at this point - ACARS wouldn't have made a transmission unless there was something to report. To deactivate ACARS you use the circuit breaker - in the same panel as the other communications circuit breakers. There isn't a switch as such.

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SantanaLopez · 15/03/2014 13:36

Goldie/ anyone in the know, have you heard of Flyertalk? They seem to know what they're talking about- nearly 300 pages.

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GoldieMumbles · 15/03/2014 13:36

"Wont they have had those screens on board with a map showing where the plane is going?"

If they turned the satellite communication (SatCom) system off, then no.

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mummylin2495 · 15/03/2014 13:37

Half hour prog on sky news now

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