Parliamentary motion tabled for second referendum

[CaptainBrickbeard]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/second-eu-referendum-pull-us-out-of-fire-make-happen?client=safari#

I strongly suspect my link doesn't work, sorry if that's the case. There is a Guardian article by Geraint Davies, Swansea MP explaining the motion he and David Lammy have tabled with regards to a second referendum, this time on the exit package.

The proposition is that a second referendum is held, giving voters the choice between the exit package available to us and staying in the UK. Effectively, this is the same referendum but this time without the two central lies of the Leave campaign - the £350 million to the NHS and the control of immigration. In terms of the Remain 'Project Fear', people could take into account the actual economic effects which have already been felt. It would be a far more informed choice.

I don't feel that this option challenges democracy in the way that some people felt another identical rederendum would. My anger at the result is based on the two fundamental untruths at the heart of the Leave campaign which I feel misled an enormous amount of voters. Who knows how a referendum without these lies would go? According to MN Leave voters, those two lies had no effect on their decision to vote Leave - if that is reflected around the country, the result will be the same. Personally, I could accept that as fair whereas I cannot accept this result when it appears to me that so many people believed they were voting to control immigration and free an enormous sum of money for the NHS, neither of which is at all true. It would be interesting to see if a second chance galvanised young voters or if they remained apathetic. Would turnout be higher or would it drop? Which way would the undecided or non voters go if they voted again? Are there really over a million Leavers with buyers' remorse or is the country full of Regretful Remainers berating themselves for cowardice? Would this deepens the horrific divisions - the racism, the ageism, the classism etc that we've seen?

I've set my stall out numerous times on here, I'm an angry Remainer and I want this second referendum to go ahead, I believe that once people know there will be freedom of movement and no extra money for the NHS even if we leave that an awful lot of them will not want to leave anymore. I an furious that Leave were able to make these claims, backtrack immediately and not be held to account. That to me is the attack on democracy, not a second referendum.

Whether Brexit happens or not, I think we are in for a huge amount of civil unrest, deep anger and disappointment, political turmoil - this whole campaign has been bitter, divisive and deeply felt for a huge range of reasons so I think we are in for hard times ahead whether we exit the EU or a way is found to stay.

If you want this referendum to go ahead, write to your MP to tell them to support the motion.

[Quodlibet]

Great post MinistryofRevenge

[MelanieCheeks]

The referendum was a very foolish idea. I don't think having a second one is such a great idea.

[MinistryofRevenge]

I voted remain, and refused to sign the petition for a second referendum because, for good or ill, the electorate had spoken. We are where we are, and now we need to make the best agreement we can; my fear (like many others) is that this will be a form of Norway-lite or Swiss which will restrict free movement but at the cost of losing passporting for financial services and/or EU financial support and co-operation in academic research (both of which are net contributors to the economy, as I understand it). I think that calling a second referendum, to enable people to vote on what they feel is the better of two known outcomes, will strengthen our negotiating position with the EU. At the moment, the EU is in the stronger negotiating position, with the additional political imperative that it cannot be seen to be overly generous to us on an exit, because of the succour that will give the separatist elements still within the EU - they have to effectively hang us out to dry pour encourager les autres.

Were Parliament to say that the UK would not leave without a second referendum, and that the referendum could not be held until and unless at least heads of terms were agreed, then that would change the landscape. Those within the EU who would be content for us to leave (because, make no mistake, we have been pissing people off for decades) would be a voice in those negotiations arguing for a better deal for the UK on the basis that this would be the price of not having us hanging around pissing on their chips. The separatist elements within the EU (and it's not just UKIP, many countries have separatist MEPs) would want to argue for a better deal for the UK on leaving, so they could present that as an argument to support their own leave campaigns. As art 50 would not yet have been triggered, the negotiation on heads of terms to be voted on would not be constrained by the two year time limit, so that negotiating disadvantage would disappear.

What I would hope we would end up with is a choice of either membership of the EU on standard terms (so we would have to give up all the advantages we've previously negotiated - because although the negotiations on what we'd get if we left would be easier, we'd have to give some concessions) and a known outcome which would be less harsh than the "fuck you, go and see how you do with the WTO" which we're likely to get at the moment. Plus there'd be some advantage to the UK in stretching out the negotiation for a couple of years, to exploit the EU's need for stability.

For the avoidance of doubt, I voted remain. I'm very strongly in favour of the deal we have at the moment. But I'm a child of the coalfields of the north, and I can see why people voted leave, plus I'm one of the very few for whom a leave vote is highly advantageous (particular skill set which would be valuable in negotiating trade agreements, dual nationality, language skills). I no longer have a dog in this fight, but I'm going to write to my MP to ask her to support this EDM, and tell everyone I know to do the same, just to make sure my friends, neighbours and family don't get shafted too badly.

[DetestableHerytike]

Mollie, Ashcroft polls looked at a bunch of other breakdowns such as ethnicity, optimism about the future etc.

[DetestableHerytike]

Juncker et al are saying no negotiations until the trigger in today's circumstances.

If the idea was to run a referendum on a different question, their view might be a different one.

[mollie123]

For about the umpteenth time - do not refer to those who voted 'leave' as those people as if they were one amorphous mass who were ignorant or racist (all 17.5 million then)
There are no statistics about how any particular age group voted
there was no indicator on the ballot paper to signify age, gender or ethnicity.
the only statistic there was geographical area!
A final poll done by you-gov used the results of asking a small sample their ages and how they voted and extrapolated that to the known age demographics of the geographical area.
Not an exact science although this age breakdown has acquired legs and resulting in nasty ageist attacks in the media when in fact no-one knows the actual age distribution of either camp
Now imagine if ethnic origin was used from the sample and extrapolated from the make-up of geographical area (just as valid an exercise) there would be cries of 'not allowed'

[Peregrina]

Don't ask me, because although I'm in the 65+ group (just), I voted Remain.

[ErrolTheDragon]

Oh, and of course they are (or sadly in most cases now, were) the generation who understood the evil our country helped defeat in WWII. They must be so saddened to see the emergence of racism in some and isolationism in others.

[CaptainBrickbeard]

I would have thought living through the war as a young adult would definitely have made you appreciate a united Europe for sure. But why did the generation that came immediately afterwards vote Leave in such numbers?

[Peregrina]

Yes, I think there is something in that the over 80s remember the horrors of the war. I think I was trying to answer those who say that some people believed the propaganda, and didn't know better. I must admit that MIL's vote surprised me.

[ErrolTheDragon]

apparently whilst over 60s were more likely to vote Leave, it flipped back to Remain for voters in their late 80s and 90s. So she was in the Remain age category!

oh, that's interesting - and doesn't surprise me. That is the generation who experienced WWII as young adults (the youngest possible age to have served, just, is 87). They're the wise heads who were more likely to appreciate the peace and prosperity of a united Europe.

[SaltyMyDear]

Surely that's because the 80+ voters remember the war and appreciate what a force for peace in Europe the EU has been.

[CaptainBrickbeard]

I just meant that her age category was more likely to vote Remain, I mentioned it because I think the shift is interesting - that the very elderly voters largely went for Remain whilst the 65-80ish group went for Leave. I don't have an agenda or anything for why I think it's interesting, I just do - as so much has been made of the older vote for Brexit, but the much older vote was to Remain. Anyway, good for your MIL doing her research and going for Remain, I'm very glad she did and wish more people had.

[Peregrina]

apparently whilst over 60s were more likely to vote Leave, it flipped back to Remain for voters in their late 80s and 90s. So she was in the Remain age category!

But why? She ticked all the Leave boxes.

[Peregrina]

Winterbiscuit
You give a link saying:
Sorry, Chancellor, but the economic argument for the EU has not been won. Here’s why

For anyone reading the article they quickly come to the sentence:
Ryanair has lost its status as the fastest-growing budget airline in Europe: that honour goes to Norwegian Air, which has thrived outside the EU.

Ah yes, this is the Norway, which although not in the EU, has to pay the membership fee for access to the market and doesn't get a rebate as the UK does, has to abide by EU regulations and free movement of labour.
A sort of EU lite - but not one which addresses the immigration issue, nor one to address the saving of money to divert to the NHS, nor one which 'gives us back our sovereignity.'

[CaptainBrickbeard]

Peregrina, apparently whilst over 60s were more likely to vote Leave, it flipped back to Remain for voters in their late 80s and 90s. So she was in the Remain age category!

[Peregrina]

The areas who voted most in favour of leave are the areas who are least likely to have understood what they were voting for and what the implications were.

Substitute people for areas in the above.

This should reflect my MIL: in her 90s, so more likely to be in the Leave camp; left school at 14, so again likely to vote Leave; always going on about immigrants; reads the Daily Mail....You get the picture. Yet she weighed up the issues as best she could and decided that Remain was the best option.

And despite all these apparent factors against her making a reasoned decision, she took it seriously, and didn't treat it as a bit of a lark as BoJo and others did.

[PigletWasPoohsFriend]

Remain's arguments were far more complex and relied upon people having at least a basic knowledge of the EU, economics and politics

Well I'm not sure shouting about WWIII or armagedon requires much knowledge of anything.

[Basicbrown]

Remain's arguments were far more complex and relied upon people having at least a basic knowledge of the EU, economics and politics

No, they talked utter shit too.

[Puzzledandpissedoff]

For me, a lot would depend on when they intended to hold the proposed second referendum

Even though I disagree with the idea in principle, I can just about see an argument for doing this when the whole "exit package" is fully clear to everyone, but the cynic in me says what they really want is an earlier vote, based on what they claim we'll get ... in other words, yet more self-serving lies

[RosesareSublime]

Could have been, no, would have been Winter, the EU is a growing morphing beast, that needs feeding, with money and countries.

At any cost.

[Winterbiscuit]

If the remain side had won, there could have been a lot of "what have we done?"

[MotherOfBleach]

They also lay the blame of the decline in steel squarely on the shoulders of the EU, despite the fact that the EU tried to temper the influx of Chinese steel into Europe and it was in fact domestic policy that kept the price of our steel higher than that of the rest of Europe.

[MotherOfBleach]

That's exactly my point, Waitrose.

The people of the NE didn't realise that voting out may threaten the future of Nissan or cut funding to the adult learner courses they are applying to because no-one told them.

Of course the BBC, Telegraph and The Times all ran articles about how damaging for business such as Nissan Leave could be, but it didn't reach the people it should have been aimed at.

That alone is not a reason for another referendum, but these people who were blindly led into voting for something that would disproportionately adversly effect them deserve a say in what happens next.

[JassyRadlett]

What is a referendum for?

Actually having reflected I think I know the answer to this one now. Isn't it 'to gain votes at a general election and mollify the right wing of the Conservative party with a promise the leader never thought he would have to implement'?