What does Britain actually export?

[allegretto]

I thought that our main revenue came now from service industries/the financial sector these days. As these (especially the latter) are going to be severely cut back when we are not in the EU. What actually is our trade going to be?

[ManonLescaut]

They're sovereign bonds seen as a safe haven for investors as they're issued by the government. When they're bid up their yield falls.

It indicates investors believe the BoE will be forced to cut or keep interest rates low due to poor economic outlook.

[sorenofthejnaii]

The Independent has explained it

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-george-osborne-declares-britain-is-ready-a7105071.html

[Letmesleepalready]

This is about gilts, but I don't understand it myself www.dmo.gov.uk/index.aspx?page=gilts/about_gilts

[LurkingHusband]

Gilts are government-backed investment vehicles, typically offered in the financial markets to allow investors a degree of certainty in their portfolio. The idea being that a government would not default on a loan. So although "safe" they are typically lower interest than riskier investments.

Been years since I wrote code, but that's essentially how they moved about inside the investment manager software.

If you want anymore, I can dig out my notes - or Wiki. However the take-home message is the level of interest a government has to offer on gilts is a function of the confidence of the market in the ability of the government to repay that gilt. Which in turn is a function of the markets appraisal of the underlying economy of said government.

Low gilt rates are generally not as good as high gilt rates.

[sorenofthejnaii]

Great - so what does gilt rates mean then?

[LurkingHusband]

I voted Remain because I listened to the economists.

I voted remain because it was obvious that Leave didn't have a fucking clue, and that a UK without a plan for Brexit would be at the mercy of every sharp-operator country in the world. (Especially the US, who have form for this sort of thing).

And because I listened to the economists.

[sorenofthejnaii]

It means that if you need to ask, you didn't research what every economist who commented on Brexit was talking about

Helpful

I voted Remain because I listened to the economists.

[LurkingHusband]

Gilt yields are below 1% for the first time ever

What does that mean?

It means that if you need to ask, you didn't research what every economist who commented on Brexit was talking about.

[sorenofthejnaii]

Gilt yields are below 1% for the first time ever

What does that mean?

I know that the UK rating has gone down - and that will increase the interest we pay.

""In the 2014–15 financial year, the UK government spent £34 billion overall on servicing its debt, which amounted to 4.6% of overall spending. The government also receives interest and dividends on the assets that it holds; taking this into account, spending on net debt interest payments was £28 billion, or 3.8% of total spending""

I wonder how a weaker pound will affect that? It puts the £8 billion net EU funding into perspective.

[ManonLescaut]

Gilt yields are below 1% for the first time ever.

[expatinscotland]

Pound fell against the dollar below where it fell on Friday and finished at $1.32.

[ofshoes]

Are there some who would rather unite with the South than leave the EU ? Could they tip any referendum on Irish union

This is completely anecdotal I know but lots of people I've talked to have said yes to exactly that. Even people who up until this happened where pure "true blue" unionists. NI simply cannot do without the EU. Of course, the thought of a united Ireland throws up any amount of problems also! Not least the fact that the south couldn't afford us without the EU bankrolling it.

[sorenofthejnaii]

Letmesleep, yup,indeed,but if they dont have a job because there are no exports

Well, luckily there'll be plenty of money to spend on benefits. Even though Government income will go down at least for the next few years and there are commitments to spend more on the NHS.

[ManonLescaut]

Dacc

Depends how you measure it.

We're 5th nominal GDP, 9th in PPP.

The point is that import far more than we export, resulting in a trade deficit. And 79% of our exports are services.

Not all our financial services are going to move no, but some.

Banks are shifting jobs out of London due to the uncertainty of passporting rights - which allow them to operate across the EU. Paris, Frankfurt and Luxembourg are options.

HSBC have said 1000 jobs are moving to Paris on Brexit. JP Morgan have tried to calm fears they're moving, but have confirmed there will be some relocation. Dimon originally said 4,000 jobs. Some now say 1000. Grapevine says JP Morgan have leased 5 buildings in Frankfurt and 4 in Madrid.

Industry estimates are between 40,000 - 70,000 jobs may relocate. But PwC up to 100,000 by 2020.

[Madbengalmum]

Letmesleep, yup,indeed,but if they dont have a job because there are no exports.....

As i say it is a chicken and egg situation.

[Letmesleepalready]

People who are struggling to make ends meet might find it more than just "giving up a little lifestyle wise though"

[LurkingHusband]

I live in the part of the country that up until not that long ago was in the midst of a pretty shitty civil war

the the risk of derailing this thread, how does the split in NI look ? Are there some who would rather unite with the South than leave the EU ? Could they tip any referendum on Irish union ?

[ofshoes]

A win? How old are you?

Old enough to know better than to get into internet arguments with people that won't listen to reason but here we are anyway.

[sorenofthejnaii]

Yes, you feel the effects,but i certainly had to give up a little lifestyle wise, but i survived

You spent less money. So you didn't buy things. Companies couldn't sell things so they closed down.

[sorenofthejnaii]

We've had lower fuel prices and food prices for a while now. That's given people more money in their pockets (which they've probably spent on cheap imports).

People will have less money in their pockets with increased inflation and prices of basic commodities. Less money to spend is bad for any economy.

[LurkingHusband]

We have. And that affected food prices and inflation. I bet there are some people out there who did feel the effects of increased food prices and inflation

I changed jobs when fuel hit £1.30 a gallon ...

[Madbengalmum]

Yes, you feel the effects,but i certainly had to give up a little lifestyle wise, but i survived.

[ofshoes]

Anyone would think they had never paid sky high fuel prices before! Not 2 or 3p a litre more, a ton more. We all survived didnt we?.

Well it's not really the price of fuel that concerns me, it's the fact that I live in the part of the country that up until not that long ago was in the midst of a pretty shitty civil war and the fact that this vote may go a long way towards destabilising the peace process. But you know, I'm sure fuel going up a bit will be pretty hard for you too.

[sorenofthejnaii]

Anyone would think they had never paid sky high fuel prices before

We have. And that affected food prices and inflation. I bet there are some people out there who did feel the effects of increased food prices and inflation.

[Madbengalmum]

A win? How old are you?