What actually happens if we leave? Qs for out voters.

[Cerea1killer]

Morning,

I have a few questions for out voters. I've had a look, tried to see if these had already been asked, but couldn't find anything. I've been trying to read as much of the arguments for both sides as I can, but small babies and in depth reading don't really go together. So far, I'm edging towards remain.

What actually happens if we leave? Let's take the immigration issue as one issue, just for the purposes of using an issue here, and this is obviously one that has been widely discussed. So, we vote to leave the EU. The out campaign in various places has focussed on us being able to do away with free movement in the EU, impose our own limits on immigration. But what say if at the next general election Labour win, and they decide to introduce legislation to keep immigration exactly as it is now i.e have free movement between us and other EU countries? And say that is successfully voted through Parliament? Therefore one of the issues that was so important to the leave campaign, and various promises made, hasn't changed at all. Same with money no longer given to the EU. There's nothing to say that will go to the NHS is there?

Could that actually happen? As I say, I'm edging towards remain, and the above hypothesis is partially why. It's all a big unknown if we leave isn't it? So therefore what are the factual reasons to vote leave? Surely it's all scenarios that may or may not happen? Whereas if we stay life will carry on as it is now? Apologies if this is a bit garbled, or my questions and comments appear stupid. I have a non-sleeping baby and am currently operating on three to four hours per night.

[caroldecker]

So only 27 countries in the world have travel, freedom and a wider social circle. All other countries are isolated, windswept hellholes. I have travelled a lot of the world and never had a problem getting in anywhere or working anywhere.

[Millyonthefloss2]

You could ask other questions:
What actually happens if Greece and Italy go bust?
What actually happens if migration hits 430,000?
What actually happens if TTIP goes ahead?
The future is full of uncertainty. But it's easier to face if you are in control of your own affairs.

[AlpacaLypse]

If you vote to Remain it will be the very last time you have a democratic vote on anything. The EU is fundamentally undemocratic, the EU parliament cannot propose legislation, the most it can do is reject proposals. Which will then be reworded and re-presented until they do get through. The status quo is not an option. If we don't leave now, we will be assumed to be on board for The Project.

[shitchef]

I think it might be 'hopelessly optimistic' versus 'realistic'. It doesn't seem to occur to some young people that all that travelling that they did was helped by their parents, that they'll probably never be able to afford their own home, that they'll be competing with other graduates who don't have £40 000 + debts behind them, that to actually go and work in another country it might be helpful to be able to speak other languages. Or they're all from rich families and will be fine anyway.

[OurBlanche]

So... fewer qualifications, less earnings and older people are all more likely to vote for leave - the older vote to leave is cancelled out by the younger vote to remain... so we should find out who the active voters are!

I am sort of watching Newsnight...

Young person, or 3, stating that with their focus on travel, freedom, having wider social group is they are voting Remain!

Older bods saying that they remember before the EU and we survived then, why not now? Initially the common market was good, but the current EU not so much...

Might it be that simple? Gap Year versus Self Rule...

[OurBlanche]

The leave politicians are not your next government. Nor are the remain politicians, necessarily.

But it is probably a given that some of them are... given that they are cross party and we will have a general election, quite soon...

[Justchanged]

If we leave, all the wrong people will be cheering

[YourPerception]

The leave politicians are not your next government. This isn't a general election.

[bkgirl]

There is an assumption that by voting remain you will be voting for the status quo. That is not true. You will be giving the nod to the EU that yes they can push forward with TTIP and a euro army just for starters. You will allow/endorse free travel/immigration. You will be backing the EU who has only one of it's institutions as being democratic. The cloud the issue by calling it a democratic deficit. We have not elected Juncker the head of the EU Commission. We cannot fire/unelect him. He is our leader and told Putin that this week.
If you vote no there will be a general election and yes a democratically elected government by a country I do not feel is racist will choose a government to negotiate our future. We can sack them by not re-electing them if they don't do a good job.
I firmly believe democracy will guide us well, anything less is not just unacceptable but dangerous. I don't want my children's future determined by faceless bureaucrats in Brussels we can't effectively sack. I am voting for my children.

[specialsubject]

no-one knows either way - we've possibly pissed off the EU enough that everything allegedly negotiated will be thrown out. Or not.

caroldecker makes an interesting point - I randomly theorise that if we vote 'out' it could then be used as a negotiating point, 'change or we go'. Trouble is, the answer might be 'close the door after you'.

and no, you aren't a racist if you vote out, because some racists will vote out. Any more than you are an arsehole if you vote in because some hasbeen pop star will vote in.

[AllPowerfulLizardPerson]

There is however no reason to expect it to stay the same. It's not been unchanging in the past, so why would it alter it's nature and stay the same now?

And a description of how it works migh best be found from it's own website europa.eu/index_en.htm rather than anything published by 'remain'

[caroldecker]

The reason the EU spends so much time negotiating deals is that it has 27 countries opinions to take into account. Most deals between countries are dealt with much quicker.
The 2 years negotiation with the EU only begins when we invoke article 50. There is no need to do this on Friday - we could easily start negotiations and discussions prior to invoking article 50, thereby having more than 2 years.
And,as the EU's largest trading partner, they will want to resolve this quickly as well.

[Justchanged]

If you want an explanation as to how it currently works this is good ( I realise this has been posted before but it's a good non-technical explanation of why stay)

medium.com/@carlgardner/why-you-should-vote-remain-2142a7b6c38b#.z04y9rs73

[DoinItFine]

The way it will work if we don't leave is the way it works now.

The way it will work if we do leave is currently unknowable.

The decision to be made is whether yiu think the way it works now is sufficiently awful to justify the risk of the unknown.

[OurBlanche]

But it is sad, isn't it, Cerea1?

After all the blather many people are having to 'go with their gut' rather than having been given any concrete evidence either way.

It all seems so bloody pointless!

[Cerea1killer]

Thanks for all your replies. Finally got the last child to bed and sat down to read them. I appreciate all your comments and thoughts. I think I'm now closer to stay than I was before, but some of my thoughts are a little clearer. Although any political change can be risky, I feel that the overall risks are lower with a change in government than leaving the EU. As somebody said above, it took years for the EU to negotiate on trade with other countries. I prefer the idea of us not having to do that, I prefer the idea of cooperation in other areas, even if it's not perfect. And yes, it's impossible to predict what would happen with a change of government, but my gut is telling me that overall, change would be slower than the changes that would happen if we leave the EU.

Plus, none of the high profile exit politicians are appealing to me as the leader of our country.

Thanks again for all your thoughts. It was good to read them, and also to have no shouts of racism, which seem to be prevalent among my Facebook friends.

[OurBlanche]

Go on then. Do what none of the politicians have been able to. Explain how it is all really going to work. Outline the benefits of either/both campaigns....

... dare you.

Your smugness should fade as you try to explain any of the 'items of interest' as you find that, when you try to grasp them they all just float away, like mist.

[DoinItFine]

The Beeb man has just said exactly what I was saying... nobody knows, no safe options, down to a matter of personal preference

LOL

You know he is not legally allowed to say anything else right before a referendum 😂😂

Radical change no more risky than carrying on as normal says BBC

😂

[OurBlanche]

Ooooh! The Beeb man has just said exactly what I was saying... nobody knows, no safe options, down to a matter of personal preference

[meditrina]

"But will all this definitely happen?"

Yes/no/maybe, but it'll be Westminster and the government that we vote in who decides.

"Voting to stay is voting for more of the same (based on the kinds of changes that have always happened)."

Nah. It's like financial ads - past performance is no indicator of future returns. Especially when things like announcements on an EU Army are being held until after the vote.

I am so strongly reminded of the voices who told us we'd be all doomed if we didn't join the Euro.

Remain isn't a 'safe' option. Because it's signing up for wherever the EU goes. There is no status quo option.

[OurBlanche]

Doinitfine if you can't see that I am pointing out that there is no certainty and that Remaining could be just as bad for the UK as Leaving.

Anyone who tries to say that the more conservative course is safer than the more risky one is deluding themselves.

We have a growing underclass that depends on benefits. Many of them are hard working people who have no choice but to top up shite wages with tax credits, people who cannot meet the coat of the housing market etc. Currently all benefits are under scrutiny... that is what is happening, is part of that conservative choice. That and lost of other things.

It is utterly disigneuous to say it is safer to stay as we are when how we are is slowly degenerating into chaos for those who need most help.

And I am NOT saying that Leaving will make any difference. Just that holding out Remain as a safe bet is a lie. There are no safe bets!

[PlatoTheGreat]

Re the trading agreements.
It takes a very long time to finalise a trading agreement.
The EU has finalised agreements with lots of different countries, incl China or South Korea. Renegociating those as the UK alone will take a very long time indeed (that was 10 years for the EU to finalise the one with China) and that is, if said countries are happy to have an agreement with the U.K.

Control of borders - yes but the borders will be in the UK, not in France.

More money? Well who knows where it will go reducing taxes for the richest would be my guess if the Conservatives stay

I think that by voting Remain yoou have an idea of what is going to happen in the next 2~5 years. Then things can and will change (because the EU changes, general international environment changes etc etc)
If you vote Leave, you have no idea at all because most of what is said to be happening when we finally leave the EU is just guess work.

[Salene]

They will spend the next 2 years divorcing the EU then the following 10 years building new agreements etc with other countries

It's a long slow process and things won't change quickly

[DoinItFine]

Of course the EU has been changing.

SLOWLY

We have a fair idea of things that are likely to hapoen if the UK doesn't change its International agreements.

We have no idea of what will happen if we seek to make a change of this significance.

It will be a big change.

There are lots of contingencies that haven't been worked out.

If we don't leave, there is no immediate change at all to our status.

You can think that is a good thingbor a bad thing.

But it is a thing.

Voting to leave is voting for the unknown. Lots think that's a risk worth taking.

Voting to stay is voting for more of the same (based on the kinds of changes that have always happened).

[Lokisglowstickofdestiny]

Europe has changed massively from the Common Market to what it is now, it will continue to change, there is uncertainty on both sides, granted more so on the Leave side but is the conservative "safe" option always the best route, it may not prove to be safe in the long run.