Are we going to be in a cycle of being unwell for a while now?

[WildFlowerBees]

Now there's no mask wearing etc most people will be exposed on a regular basis so will we all be in a cycle of having covid being ok for a while then getting it again?

[sirfredfredgeorge]

No FunnyInjury unless you do not believe the ONS data on prevalence, or have people having lots and lots of infections, there must be only a small proportion of people who have not had it.

[1dayatatime]

The truth it is nobody really knows how it will work out in the long term.

But one comparison of what could happen is the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968 which caused a similar or greater number of deaths (2m to 4m worldwide deaths out of a population of 3.5 billion) than Covid (6m worldwide deaths out of a population of 7.9 billion).

Because there were no restrictions like Covid it quite quickly burnt itself out / created herd immunity/ mutated in a less harmful virus in about 2 years. It is still in existence today and people still get it and some still die but it's no longer a "new" virus and just gets lumped together with seasonal flu cases.

I suspect the same will happen with Covid.

[1dayatatime]

@Lovemusic33

I really don’t think health has a lot to to do with catching covid. I consider myself reasonably healthy,

++++

For most the biggest factor in determining whether you've caught Covid or not is how often you test given that for most people the illness is either asymptomatic or mild.

One of the big factors along with age in how ill you get is Body Mass Index. There's a very clear link between Japan having one of the lowest Covid death rates per head and having the lowest levels of obesity amongst first world economies.

[Silverswirl]

[quote 1dayatatime]@Lovemusic33

I really don’t think health has a lot to to do with catching covid. I consider myself reasonably healthy,

++++

For most the biggest factor in determining whether you've caught Covid or not is how often you test given that for most people the illness is either asymptomatic or mild.

One of the big factors along with age in how ill you get is Body Mass Index. There's a very clear link between Japan having one of the lowest Covid death rates per head and having the lowest levels of obesity amongst first world economies.[/quote]
I was going to say the same. Huge factor in how ill you get is your bmi and this has been true in my real life experience too with those I know who have caught covid (almost everyone I know has!)

[roarfeckingroarr]

Never had it. Live in central London. I've never been worried or careful.

[1dayatatime]

@Silverswirl

If we had said this about BMI and Covid 12 to 18 months ago we would have got flamed on MN.

[adriftabroad]

[quote 1dayatatime]@Silverswirl

If we had said this about BMI and Covid 12 to 18 months ago we would have got flamed on MN.

[/quote]
But it is true.

[RafaIstheKingofClay]

@1dayatatime

The truth it is nobody really knows how it will work out in the long term.

But one comparison of what could happen is the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968 which caused a similar or greater number of deaths (2m to 4m worldwide deaths out of a population of 3.5 billion) than Covid (6m worldwide deaths out of a population of 7.9 billion).

Because there were no restrictions like Covid it quite quickly burnt itself out / created herd immunity/ mutated in a less harmful virus in about 2 years. It is still in existence today and people still get it and some still die but it's no longer a "new" virus and just gets lumped together with seasonal flu cases.

I suspect the same will happen with Covid.

It 'burnt itself out' quickly because it was a mutated form of the 1957 pandemic flu strain and people who'd had that strain had some immunity.

Which makes it very different from SARS-COV2, where actually having had SARS-COV2 in the past few months doesn't necessarily give you immunity. Whatever happens it would seem to make sense that it will look very different to the Hong Kong flu.

The fact that it is coronavirus and not a flu virus is probably the biggest difference. Herd immunity through infection is probably not an option since we already knew that immunity to human coronaviruses tends to be short lived and SARS-COV2 seems to be acting as expected in this way.

In the short term at least I suspect we are looking at 3-4 monthly waves and the associated disruption regardless of season.

[FromEden]

Do we think it could be safe to say that perhaps anyone who hasn't had it by now could some kind of pre existing immunity? I have been exposed and have never caught it (confirmed by antibody and even a t cell test). Have been living life as normal including crowded concerts, shows and sporting events, without a mask. And I am not vaccinated 🤔 all of the people I know who have had it recently have been fully vaccinated or boosted.

[Utini]

@FromEden I thought that about myself, having spent all evening with family a few weeks ago, two of whom then felt ill a few hours later and tested positive the next morning. Somehow DP and I escaped infection.

DP then caught a it recently from a brief exposure and I am now positive.

[DukeofEarlGrey]

Kind of ridiculous that there are people here saying 'just live healthily, you'll be fine'. If that were true we wouldn't have been through everything we've already been through with Covid.

[RichTeaRichTea]

I don’t think people are saying “just live healthily, you’ll be fine”.

They are saying “live as healthily as you can manage, because that is all you can do”. You don’t have control over anything else.

[UnmentionedElephantDildo]

@FromEden

Do we think it could be safe to say that perhaps anyone who hasn't had it by now could some kind of pre existing immunity? I have been exposed and have never caught it (confirmed by antibody and even a t cell test). Have been living life as normal including crowded concerts, shows and sporting events, without a mask. And I am not vaccinated 🤔 all of the people I know who have had it recently have been fully vaccinated or boosted.

No.

Not with any certainty- it's a bit like people who 'never' caught chickenpox at school despite it going round school a few times and siblings. Then getting it as an adult out of the blue.

I'd say the over-riding likelihood is chance - earlier variants were more erratically infectious - some superspreaders (events/people) others barely passing it on.

Is it biologically possible? Yes, never say bever in human biology!!

For example there are people who have natural immunity to HIV (partial and occasionally complete) which is attributed to a genetic variation that affects a receptor to HIV. But SARS-COV2 enters the body through different receptors (ACE) and I don't know how much that can vary individuals.

(Also the amount in the body varies by sex and age, which is a contributory factor to why men tend to get it worse than women, and adults worse than children).

[Purpleroseas]

Kind of ridiculous that there are people here saying 'just live healthily, you'll be fine'.

Given that viruses and other pathogens are part of live, and given that covid vaccines don't do a good job at preventing disease, the best we can all do is be as healthy/slim as possible and to strengthen our immune system as much as possible.

What's the alternative?

[Gwlondon]

@1dayatatime I agree about BMI. Also biggest risk factor is age.

I don’t agree about comparisons to Japan. It is very hard to get a test in Japan and was earlier in the pandemic. Where as in the UK it was comparatively easy for nearly two years to get a test. We have never tested a virus this much. Previously you would have never known you got a virus again unless you were seriously ill in hospital.

Also, not everyone registered their tests, positive or negative. So we don’t even really know how many tests were conducted. I registered one negative for my daughter but overall tested her about 8 times. For my self I tested twice, one positive and one negative and I didn’t register either because I was too ill. (Recently when it was no longer a requirement).

The combination in the UK of available tests and published information means we have an idea what was going on but really imagine so much more testing was being done than was recorded.

[SheSaysShush]

I have had two colds/coughs in the last 2 years and felt pretty shit with them both. Neither of them covid.

[UnmentionedElephantDildo]

and given that covid vaccines don't do a good job at preventing disease

But they do an excellent job at reducing the severity of the disease

Yes, staying active, eating a varied diet and being a suitable weightare all protective of your health. It'll never guarantee that an individual won't fall badly ill, but on a population basis it'd mean there are a lot fewer cases of illness. And of course obesity is the second biggest cause of preventable cancers

[Dontforgetyourbrolly]

I am truly sorry for anybody that has suffered and lost loved ones for any reason.
But the reality is for most people it is a bad cold , I'm sorry that sounds so uncaring , its not supposed to be but it's true.
It's normal to catch viruses and it happens all the time .
I did not know Asian flu was a thing but my brother had it a phew years ago after a trip to the far east .
One day thats how we will think of covid.
There really is no choice unless you can force the whole world into total isolation.

[Thedogshow]

Our immune systems only work because we have had multiple illnesses. You have no immunity from things until you catch them (of course from vaccines too for certain diseases).

It’s natural to have viruses circulating in the population. There are many types of viruses that cause colds, coughs and flu-type illnesses have always circulated and continue to do so, and this is one of them. It’s just normal!

[Toty]

No I don't think so. Many of us will never develop covid as many of us have immunity, and I don't mean 5 minutes immunity from the vaccines.
Pre existing t cell immunity is what is protecting many of us, there have been numerous studies on this. I have been exposed many times and never tested positive.

[RichTeaRichTea]

Im not sure what people expected long term other than cycles of being well and catching an infectious disease, being well etc. And some people dying of what for others is mild. That is what has happened throughout human existence. We want to avoid lots of people being very unwell all at once, but otherwise the cycle of well/ill is a completely normal one.

[HelloMissus]

There still quite a lot of us who haven’t had it once including me and DH.
We test a LOT for work so I really don’t think we‘ve had it without symptoms.

[BustopherPonsonbyJones]

@linerforlife

Yep pretty much. The more it spreads the weaker the variants will become and eventually like other coronaviruses we will barely notice when we catch it. Expect a few more rounds of this... and in fairness we won't know because testing will be so minimal

Hopeful but not accurate.

[BustopherPonsonbyJones]

@FromEden

Do we think it could be safe to say that perhaps anyone who hasn't had it by now could some kind of pre existing immunity? I have been exposed and have never caught it (confirmed by antibody and even a t cell test). Have been living life as normal including crowded concerts, shows and sporting events, without a mask. And I am not vaccinated 🤔 all of the people I know who have had it recently have been fully vaccinated or boosted.

Most people are vaccinated and boosted. Throwing in ‘anti-vax’ info here is irrelevant as more people with Covid will be vaccinated as most people are vaccinated - hopefully, they will get a milder case of the virus

No issue with YOU not being vaccinated but the anti-vax propaganda is dull.

[Daphnedot]

I've not had it but got children who have it twice. Maybe I've not had symptoms, I've tested when the kids were ill