Where do you think we will be in 6 months time? Feeling positive..

[Theegghashatched]

Of course - no one has a crystal ball (If you do , please share what you see in it!) but I wondered where you think we will be in 6 months time in regards to Covid-19? (May/June 2021)

It is hard to predict due to the nature of the beast but my predictions are as follows:

• Roll out and regular use of tests with results within 15 mins
• Roll out of a vaccine across higher risk groups, perhaps include those above the age of 50. Possible roll out of 2 vaccines, Oxford and Pfizer
• Social Distancing and other measures still in place but more industries opening up, particularly retail units
• Increase in travel corridors due to testing at airport entrance points (possible vaccinations?)
• Development of better treatment, fingers crossed for lower deaths and hospital admissions

Overall I think we will be in a positive place!

What are your thoughts? Feel free to disagree with me!

There are quite a few friends did I have spoken too that think life will never return to how it did before... and that there will always be some kind of restrictions...
How utterly depressing!
I want to see concerts and football matches packed full of people.
Will people honestly accept social distancing permanently? Surely too many jobs would go if that was the case.

I think as long as the Danish mutation of the virus from the Mink Population is halted from spreading then the future is very positive.

If the vaccination is successfully administered to the vulnerable, the ones that do catch it will be from the less vulnerable group so not likely to end up as a hospital admission. The NHS will therefore not be impacted and life can return to normal.

One thought though, is this vaccine a one off course of 2 doses or is it going to be like the flu vaccine and require a new one every year to cover any mutated strains?

I do think though we should never lose sight of those that have already sadly been affected by this virus, either directly themselves or from losing a loved one. In the same way we pay tribute as a mark of respect to those that lose their lives to a tradgedy i feel we should do the same for these people that have unfortunately not been able to benefit from the medical progress of a vaccine and treatment.

I think the thing that is going to be a game changer in the short to medium term is the fast testing. Remember when Boris spoke about operation moonshine and everyone was like, whatevs Boris. Now it's a reality and is already changing things faster than the vaccine.

I reckon we will test and trace our way out of lockdown for this Christmas, use the vaccine from Pfizer until the Oxford one is ready then come January the Oxford one will be rolled out. It wouldn't actually surprise me if by the time the Pfizer one is through, the Oxford one is too and doesn't need the minus 80 storage so we use that one.

So will there be a time when we can have school parents evenings again, go abroad, go to concerts, and just be free again??

Do you remember how many months it took to get PPE in hospitals and then in care homes and the community. At work we have only just had easy access to PPE in probably the last month. There was a worldwide shortage of masks, gel, elastic, scrubs etc for ages. Ordinary members of the public were making them for the nhs.
How do you think this will go with a vaccine? Why would the UK be prioritised? We have pre-ordered some. Great. They will arrive when they arrive and in dribs and drabs. There are as you know problems with storage and sorry to say, bloody Brexit.
In six months I hope most of the over 80s have been able to receive the vaccine - this would be great. Some hospitals staff will have been done. I think care home staff, community staff will still be waiting and any nhs staff behind the scenes (IT staff, cleaners, facilities staff) will still be waiting. I reckon before 6 months we will be able to buy it though and many people will.
I guess what I'm saying is that the drug companies unless uk based/funded have no reason to prioritise the nhs. Getting vaccines is not going to be as easy as Boris is saying. How often do we run out of flu vaccines? All the time! And we have a proper 'world beating ' system already set up to oversee flu jabs. That said I'm really happy that there is hope for a vaccine, which will eventually filter its way down to us

@janetmendoza but this will be NHS led not palmed off to private companies having to start from scratch. I have great faith in the NHS to do this, I've seen just how slick and amazing they can be when in great need. We have to keep the faith.

I hope its going to go as following:

Within the next week or two: More information about the Oxford vaccine.

December: A small select few (extremely vulnerable and NHS/care workers) will be vaccinated. More areas other than just Liverpool will have the mass testing availability.
Also some non essential shops will open to get some of the economy back. A bit later in December they may open pubs and restaurants, but not too late and possibly only for meals.

January: Depending on cases from after the Christmas period possibly another 2-4 weeks lockdown like the one we have now. More groups will start to get vaccinated. There will also be more and more mass testing.

February: Any lockdown will be eased and possible tier system again. Further groups will get vaccinated.

March: Restrictions will be eased further as further groups will be vaccinated. It will hopefully be around this time that outdoor groups will be allowed so things like outside sports will have spectators, parkrun will be back.

April: See March

May: Near enough back to normal as everyone over the age of 50 and vulnerable people will be vaccinated.

June: Glastonbury and other festivals will go ahead. I'll go on holiday and I'll get a PB in parkrun.

Working from home will still be going ahead for more people than 2019, but that's nothing to do with the government, but more to do with companies seeing the benefits.
Masks will still be around as it will be socially unacceptable to not wear one when having any form of mild illness (a bit like covering your mouth and nose when coughing has always been hygienic and polite), however, it will NOT be enforced and it will just be a social thing rather than anything to do with covid.

Of course all this is just my own hopes. I could be wrong, but if I don't have hope then I have nothing. I kind of want to keep my hope so I don't start googling bad things again. Hope of next spring/summer is all I have at the moment.

Wow what positivity, just bringing it back to reality, I dont think it will be as positive as all that, sorry just my opinion

Best case scenario IMO:
Highly-regulated 'normal life' - certificates to prove you've had a vaccination, certificates to prove you've tested negative.
Without certificates, nothing allowed.
Still having to self-isolate for positive contacts.
An awful lot of tax increases (but not on the rich or companies) to pay for EOTHO furlough etc.

My due date is 6 months from now so I'm really hoping things will be as positive as some of you are saying! I'd love to think there would be normality but not sure if there will be. Definitely think things will be much more relaxed though with some parts of the population vaccinated and quicker turn around tests enabling things to open up significantly. Plus cases will naturally be lower in the spring.

I think in 6 months we will be far more badly affected by Brexit than covid.

How do you think this will go with a vaccine? Why would the UK be prioritised? We have pre-ordered some. Great. They will arrive when they arrive and in dribs and drabs. There are as you know problems with storage and sorry to say, bloody Brexit.

AFAIK the Oxford one is in production.

I think things will be more open but distancing and masks will remain even if the vaccine has been got out to vulnerable population as they simply can't risk totally dropping guard when we don't know how long it will last etc.
Lots of distanced outdoor events will have been organised for next summer - but what's the betting we have a wet, grey usual British summer this time?
I guess in 6 months a lot of people will be going back to work a few days a week.
Larger gatherings will be allowed in homes.
Theatres, seated concert venues and cinemas will be open with distancing and masks. I'm still not sure clubbing or large standing gigs will be a goer - smaller gig venues may open with seating and limited numbers.
Restaurants will be open as per last summer - there may be masks on while not eating rules

It's my DD's rescheduled bat mitzvah at the end of June (it was due mid-- they were just starting to have them again in person in summer, so we know our baseline is 20 guests and a short service. Hoping we can have more people by next summer. Slightly worried the government will screw up and get 'back to normal' too quickly and we could end up locked down in summer

But there isn't a vaccine, its still in P3 trials and its efficacy is still to be proven.
A Scientist on the world service also pointed out that they need far more than 94 cases, so by the end of the trial, he hoped it would be nearer 200.
He also said it hasn't been trialled on pregnant women, the elderly/vulnerable, those with underlying conditions.

Even the ever hopeful Johnson said lets not jump ahead of ourselves.

My predictions:
The elderly and CEV will be immunised
News this morning about very quick testing before arena type events - this will be in place. So festivals hopefully back but everyone tests before going in each day
Travel - airport testing and no quarantine/reduced quarantine of a few days
Masks possibly still in place for enclosed places with lots of people
Hand sanitizer still everywhere
Shops, bars , restaurants back to normal
Still lots of WFH
Weekly testing for schools??

As long as my March wedding can go ahead as planned, I’ll roll with whatever the world throws at us. Wedding is only gonna be 15, sit down meal, small reception in a private bar with some nibbles in the evening.

He also said it hasn't been trialled on pregnant women, the elderly/vulnerable, those with underlying conditions.

This can't be true.

@Bluethrough

But there isn't a vaccine, its still in P3 trials and its efficacy is still to be proven. A Scientist on the world service also pointed out that they need far more than 94 cases, so by the end of the trial, he hoped it would be nearer 200. He also said it hasn't been trialled on pregnant women, the elderly/vulnerable, those with underlying conditions.

Even the ever hopeful Johnson said lets not jump ahead of ourselves.

There's always one, isn't there?

I think there will still be restrictions on mass gatherings and probably also some additional local restrictions in areas where there are flare-ups. I'm cautiously optimistic that most of the vulnerable groups will have been vaccinated which should massively reduce hospitalisations!

@Dontbakeinatent

He also said it hasn't been trialled on pregnant women, the elderly/vulnerable, those with underlying conditions.

This can't be true.

I am fairly certain it won’t have been trialled on pregnant women and doubt it will have been trialled on those with underlying health conditions but I am pretty sure it has been tested on the elderly.

There's always one, isn't there?

Its an interim P3 trial report, not peer reviewed, that has very positive findings but thats it.

I'm very hopeful on the Oxford vaccine, apparently hasn't the temperature issues.

I ve also booked my summer hols based on that i believe there will be a vaccine for the vulnerable by Spring BUT i think we will be in similar restrictions to last summer, so no large gatherings, SD limits on household mixing.

Blind optimism is pointless.

Its an interim P3 trial report, not peer reviewed, that has very positive findings but thats it.

"Peer reviewed"? It's not a journal article!

One of the scientists from the Pfizer team who was interviewed on the BBC was practically crying from joy at the results. It's a huge deal. We're not there yet but this is wonderful news. I'll be guided by his reaction rather than that of 'Bluethrough'.

Blind optimism is pointless.

I don't see any 'blind optimism' - whatever that is. I see cautious optimism.

Being a Debbie Downer for the sake of it and then calling it 'cautious' or 'realistic' is pretty pointless too.

@PrimalLass

I think in 6 months we will be far more badly affected by Brexit than covid.

I think that's very likely.

It says a lot that the idea of 'getting back to normal' on this thread makes no mention of dealing with increased unemployment, increase in homelessness and food bank use, catching up on delayed/ignored medical treatment, severe damage to mental health, and similar issues. I guess sorting any of that out and restoring 'normality' can't begin to compare with overseas trips, hugging people and Glastonbury. It's a vaccine for a virus, not a magic wand.

There are some miserable people here trying to put a downer on it. No pandemic in this history of the world has lasted longer than 2 years, this virus has been around since 2019. From what I can see, next year will be pretty much back to normal. Masks and social distancing will not still be around, hell I would guess most people would prefer a 2 week full on lockdown every so often so that once it's over life can be absolutely normal, no masks, no distancing but concerts, sports and festivals. Seeing your family and friends whenever you like rinse and repeat. But that won't happen, this will end.