Tony Blair this morning

[LaLoose]

Did Tony Blair's four-step plan - explained on the Today Programme this morning - make clinical sense, does anyone know? And, if so, why the FLIP aren't we / all European countries doing it NOW???

[MindBodyChocolate]

I heard him on r4 and thought it was completely refreshing to hear someone with a coherent sounding plan, clearly explained.

The Iraq war was a huge mistake. But the incompetence and lack of empathy demonstrated by his successor PMs has caused untold miseries and loss of life (e.g. austerity?) At least Blair has a brain and is choosing to use it constructively. Where's Cameron's input on all of this? Nowhere, and I am glad about that.

[IheartNiles]

I miss Blair. He’d be great during this.

[Myalternate]

Wonder how many shares Blair holds in AstraZenica 🤔

[tilder]

SerendipityJane you can get herd immunity naturally, as well as from vaccination. Or a combination of both. All it needs is for a given percentage of the population to be immune (however that is acquired).

Lock down is trying to reduce transmission and get the R number down. Some form of herd immunity will basically do the same thing. For example, if 40% of the population are immune, you have a 60% chance of passing the virus onto an individual. Roughly.

Less damaging to the economy if we reduce transmission by immunity than the very crude measure of lock down.

On the question of how long immunity lasts. It's a big question and I'm certainly no virologist. My understanding is we don't hang on to corona virus antibodies well. But we have other measures that hang on better and for longer. Which isn't ideal and probably means an immunisation programme would need to be rolled out quickly, possibly on a regular basis.

[52andblue]

@SerendipityJane

You don't think Boris and his lot are procuring vaccines, giving patients therapeutic drugs, testing people and collecting data?

Nope, I don't.

I don't either.

I think they are running around like headless chickens and most of the current Govt's energy is being directed towards handing out contracts to pals and manipulating the public (mostly to blame each other)

[Forgetmenot157]

Who do people do that? Just because they don't like him, automatically they disagree with everything they say... I don't like balir but his plan actually made plenty of sense.... Why the hell are we waiting to find out the efficiency of this vaccine? It's safe... Let's get ahead of the game here and start getting people vaccinated. If it turns out only 40% efficient we'll No harm done and it's better than nothing. If it's 60-70% we'll we have just saved ourselves another month of restrictions!

As much as people slated Russia and china's vaccine, my guess is that this is actually what they have done...

[Forgetmenot157]

@GrumblyMumblyisnotJumbly

Blair can zip it as far as I'm concerned.

Keir Starmer did say everything that I would have liked to have said to the Tory muppet show in the House of Commons today.

How are we supposed to believe a thing that comes out of Johnson's mouth when he u-turns at every step? This Government are completely reactive not proactive & their test, track and trace system is a disaster. At least they seem to have given launching new stupid 3 word slogans a rest!

You say blair can zip it... Then moan our govt is reactive.... Blair was trying to be proactive and yet you dismiss it because you don't like him personally.... Pathetic!

[SheepandCow]

I read what he said earlier...and I've had to book a psychiatrist appointment...

... There's something very wrong when I find myself agreeing with Tony Blair...!

It chokes me to say it but he's making quite a lot of sense.

[WiseUpJanetWeiss]

@Crakeandoryx

A plan needs to be in place for how the vaccine is going to be distributed now. Not when it's approved and I agree it needs to be done fast. Even if it's not totally affective but proven to increase immunity in the majority we need it to be in the population. Especially essential workers and those most vulnerable!

The government are totally shit, but even they know this.

However the vaccines task force is headed by one of his management consultant cronies who leaked details to some US healthcare investors over the weekend. What could possibly go wrong?

[SheepandCow]

What could possibly go wrong
It sounds fucked up from the start. I read Bingham's leak. She plans to throw 45-50 year olds under the bus. She was rambling on about getting it to the over 50s... ignoring that the risk starts at 45, not 50.

I read more sensible proposals somewhere else but can't remember where. They would take into account environmental risks, i.e. deprivation, as well as medical.

[GrumblyMumblyisnotJumbly]

@Forgetmenot157 I haven’t heard Blair’s plan but yes I lost my faith in listening to him over his flaky dossier on weapons of mass destruction and as far as I know he hasn’t retrained in medicine so yes my first instinct is for him to zip it.

I will listen to politicians of any hue when I haven’t got their card marked for making significant decisions to the detriment of our country. It’s not pathetic to distrust people’s decision making under those circumstances. It’s not like I said he can zip it because I don’t like his hair!

Let’s face it any plan has to be better than what the current clowns have (which seems to be cross their fingers and hope for them best).

[Blue565]

It's hilarious people slating Tony Blair with people like Boris and Trump in power

[myrtilles]

Tony Blair's plan sounds reasonable to me.
I particularly like the idea of proper testing in secondary schools. At the moment people aren't even given a test if they have sat next to a definite case. I also think he is right to say that this must be the last lockdown.
Keir Starmer is more likeable than TB but has not come up with a convincing strategy re: covid and seems keener than the government on lockdowns.

[SheepandCow]

@Blue565

It's hilarious people slating Tony Blair with people like Boris and Trump in power

Blair, for once, has spoken some sense. That doesn't mean people can't also slate him for everything else he did - like his war on the disabled.

[SerendipityJane]

SerendipityJane you can get herd immunity naturally, as well as from vaccination.

Which I understand - if (as I also commented) Covid can't recur. As I understand it (and more than happy to be proved wrong) that's not a certainty yet. People are getting Covid twice and we're not yet able to say of they are unusual or the norm ?

[herecomesthsun]

If we got herd immunity naturally, we wouldn't have had to come up with vaccination, would we? Come now.

[SerendipityJane]

@herecomesthsun

If we got herd immunity naturally, we wouldn't have had to come up with vaccination, would we? Come now.

But we haven't "come up with a vaccination" for Covid, yet have we ?

Fine promises, yes. Maybe jam tomorrow, yes. But here ? Now ?

[SheepandCow]

The WHO on 'herd immunity':

There has been some discussion about the concept of reaching so-called “herd immunity” by letting the virus spread.

Herd immunity is a concept used for vaccination, in which a population can be protected from a certain virus if a threshold of vaccination is reached"-@DrTedros

For example, herd immunity against #measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated. For #polio, the threshold is about 80%"-@DrTedros

In other words, herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it

[SheepandCow]

The WHO explain it simply:

Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak, let alone a pandemic. It is scientifically and ethically problematic"-@DrTedros

we don’t know enough about immunity to Covid 19. Most people who are infected with the virus develop an immune response within the first few weeks, but we don’t know how strong or lasting that immune response is, or how it differs for different people

There have also been some examples of people infected with #COVID19 being infected for a second time

[SheepandCow]

More from the WHO. They make it very clear:

The vast majority of people in most countries remain susceptible to this virus. Seroprevalence surveys suggest that in most countries, less than 10% of the population have been infected with the #COVID19 virus

Letting #COVID19 circulate unchecked therefore means allowing unnecessary infections, suffering & death. Although Older adult, older men, & those with underlying conditions are most at risk of severe disease & death they aren't the only ones at risk. People of all ages have died

[SheepandCow]

The WHO on Long Covid:

we’re only beginning to understand the long-term health impacts among people with #COVID19. I have met with patient groups suffering with what is now being described as “Long COVID” to understand their suffering & needs so we can advance research & rehabilitation

[woodyLdn]

It was great listening to an articulate and intelligent politician. I wish he was in charge! At least he has a plan. Boris just bumbles around making mistakes, back tracking and generally not inspiring much confidence at all.

[Figmentofmyimagination]

I miss Blair too.

[SheepandCow]

@Figmentofmyimagination

I miss Blair too.

Steady on...

I know times are bad and all, but let's not lose our heads.

[PutYourBackIntoit]

It would take more than 4 weeks to get the PO approved!