Test and Trace didn't get much of a mention yesterday

[StealthPolarBear]

Surely while we're doing our bit and staying home, the government needs to sort out a T&T system that's fit for purpose?

[Ginogineli]

West lancs etc now higher than Liverpool and loads commute in from here and other areas

Pop up units all over place will give huge benefit long term but no way before Xmas 😳

[Ginogineli]

Yes we dropped loads but look at Preston

Preston was sky high and had pop up units everywhere as a result then as consequence of that got some of the worst restrictions! Same happening now with Blackburn

Liverpool is high still in terms of hospilisatiojd

We are only in the mess because NW unlocked too soon

If they start tests Friday it’ll be weeks before average joe gets them

No way will our shops open 2nd Nov as our results will only go up and up 😩

[RedToothBrush]

Ginogelli, i dont think so tbh.

The number of cases in Liverpool has dropped significantly but the % of tests that come back positive has also dropped.

And this is something that PHE will be looking at.

WHO say that a positivity rate below 5% is essential to manage the virus. Liverpool is currently running at just over 14%. But thats dropped from 23% a few weeks back. Which i suspect was the highest anywhere in the country.

If they can mass test then they can identify more people with the virus and get it under control. And that means going forward they can get the positivity rate down even more.

Having said that, you need a relatively high level of participation in a mass testing scheme, and if I'd have chosen where to trial this, i dont think Liverpool would have been near the top of my list for ideal trial area on this.

[Ginogineli]

For rest

[Ginogineli]

Red toothbrush

So by Liverpool volunteering from now to Xmas for tests our cases will go sky high - more tests more cases so no one will be having any uplifting of restrictions in our area!

I do get it but by doing this we’ve wiped floor with any kind of normality fiercest of the year

[Ginogineli]

Yes I’m liverpool and our achool has signed up to covid study

I’ve refused permission have had mostcpqrehts thankfully

Tests every 6 weeks?! No thanks

[RedToothBrush]

More on this:

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/how-fast-mass-covid-19-19209042
How fast, mass covid-19 testing will work in Liverpool and which groups will be prioritised

The same document states that a number of specific groups of people will be prioritised first for the quickfire testing programme.

These groups would be:

1. Front-line NHS staff (including trainees and trainers), to protect health services and save lives, including non-COVID-19 related conditions where there is already a significant risk of harm.
2. Front-line social care staff, including domiciliary care and affiliated visiting professionals
3. Emergency service staff
4. Education staff at schools, colleges and higher education institutions
5. University students
6. Key workers, to maintain essential services, in particular prison staff
7. School pupils
8. Workers in hospitality/leisure/at-risk sectors
9. Contacts of those identified by the NHS Test and Trace system

[RedToothBrush]

Mass testing trial set to start in Liverpool on Friday. The army are being brought in to do it.

This isn't the first trial of this. So this will be interesting to see how effective it is. See:
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/operation-moonshot-salford-trial-refocus-19105241
Has Operation Moonshot already crash landed? Salford is told to 'refocus' regular rapid test trial
The mass testing pilot will now prioritise resources to 'prevent and manage outbreaks'

I watch with interest. But this is where the government are now throwing all their resources and interest and not it seems T & T.

[RedToothBrush]

@Dustballs

How does mass testing work RTB?

It doesn't at the moment.

The last news I saw on this was a couple of weeks ago. The trial which started at the beginning of Sept was only just hitting 250 tests per day but they were apparently hoping to expand it to 1000 per day by the end of the month (October).

In order to be vaguely useful its got to be doing a hell of a lot more than that.

Johnson has said something about it in a think his last three press conferences. It seems to be his big hope. But thats a lot of hope without much to back it up.

I also believe the tests are not as accurate as the current ones.

Johnson talked about using the army to mass test whole towns the other day - the newspapers have reported this will not be compulsory (at this stage). However I can't see how it will be effective if its not. We are back to the problem of people on low incomes/insecure jobs not wanting to risk having to isolate

Theres been some suggestion that schools could be mass tested but you run into ethics and consent issues here too.

[SheepandCow]

Agree with you @StealthPolarBear

Also, excellent post @Alondra.
I have family in South Australia and extended family in NZ. All very happy with how things are going.

We're like you. An island. Unfortunately we failed to use that advantage. And - we're going to continue to import Covid. Our new 'lockdown' will allow inbound travel to continue. Still no checks or proper quarantine...

Your governments have two things our lack. Common sense and foresight.

[Dustballs]

How does mass testing work RTB?

[Dustballs]

Should the opposition be questioning BJ on this?

I agree it's disgusting that the government has got away with paying all their mates to do such a disgraceful job.

[StealthPolarBear]

Surely if it that or lockdown.
My understanding is it works well enough during non covid times. I appreciate its not just about scaling up but it surely proves its not fundamentally a bad idea

[MummyPop00]

T&T doesn’t sit well with liberalised western democracies generally. NZ & Aus are outliers due to geography and self sufficiency.

If T&T worked, at least one of our comparable European peers would be posting admirable results by now. Germany, Europe’s gold standard is posting 20k cases a day. Nuff said.

[RedToothBrush]

I agree. But I do think that the government see the way out of this mess is now mass testing for various reasons.

[LangClegsInSpace]

@RedToothBrush

Policy has shifted from t and t to mass testing.

If we actually get efficient, useful mass testing (I'll believe it when I see it) then that will be extremely valuable - but only as part of T&T.

No matter how many tests we do, no matter how quick the results, all a test does is provide information. We still need to support people to isolate and, unless we're able to test every single person on a near daily basis, we will still need to do contact tracing.

We still need to regain trust in the T&T system unless we opt for compulsory mass testing. I don't think that would be wise.

[StealthPolarBear]

Really good post Lang. I think it's depressing that people are accepting that it won't work even though we're currently in strict measures to get the rates down. There appears to be no forward thinking by the government, just get through the next few weeks, if cases are low then they'll try T&T, it won't work because they didn't get it up and running in the time they had, cases will rise again and so on until... What? I don't know.

[RedToothBrush]

Policy has shifted from t and t to mass testing.

[LangClegsInSpace]

I agree, it's worrying this was not mentioned. I am beyond disgusted that the time in the summer, when cases were low, was not used to sort this out properly.

Yes, cases are too high at the moment for T&T to be very effective (in most of the country - there are still areas where it could be effective now), but we should be building the system now, in readiness for when cases fall low enough in the spring. Otherwise we'll just be back here again, and again and again ...

It's not enough to just say the system won't work if people don't comply, although that is obvious. We need to work out exactly why people are not complying and remove those barriers.

There's not enough support for people who need to isolate. There's a one off payment for those on means tested benefits but this misses out those who are over the benefit limit and also those with no recourse to public funds. People simply will not isolate if they can't afford it.

Some people will need practical support as well, because they have children or other caring responsibilities.

People need to be sure they will not lose their job if they need to isolate. Job security generally has gone down the pan in recent years and we won't fix that all at once. There are penalties for employers who make someone come in to work if they should be isolating, but no specific penalties for dismissing someone or otherwise disadvantaging them. This needs to be made an 'automatically unfair' reason for dismissal so that employees are protected from the first day of employment and not just after two years.

Without this support in place, the criminal fine for those who fail to comply has simply added a disincentive to get a test in the first place and a disincentive to dob your mates in as contacts.

The other big problem at the moment is lack of trust and this is trickier to solve. At the moment the whole system is completely top-down, for example there have been loads of threads where the OP knows they are a contact (because their friend / relative has told them they have tested positive) but until they are contacted by T&T they cannot get time off work and there's no way for them to self-report as a contact. There also doesn't seem to be any way for those who are contacted to get back in touch with T&T if they have further questions or need support.

So T&T is this huge, faceless process that is done to people, rather than a process that invites engagement and true cooperation. It's no surprise people don't trust it.

The bulk of the system needs to be handed over to local authority public health. Good article here:

The purpose of this briefing is not to articulate a detailed new model but to suggest that, given the shortcomings of the Test and Trace Service, now is the time for a serious conversation about a more human and local system that is closely rooted in the daily lives of people and communities and makes it easier for us all to take the right action to keep ourselves and those around us safe.

www.adph.org.uk/2020/10/explainer-test-and-trace-service/

That's what I reckon, anyway.

[StealthPolarBear]

I agree numbers need to be low. Theyve put measures in place to reduce numbers. Presumably they think they'll be successful. If they are do they have a plan for what next or will they get to the end of it and realise to their surprise and amazement that T&T can't possibly cope?

[thingsarelookingup]

I agree that the numbers are far far too high for track and trace. I think it probably needs to be under 2000 a day plus you need to broaden the testing criteria to any vaguely related symptom.

[Alondra]

I live in NSW, Australia, a place many consider to have the gold standard for track and trace. One of the things that have been made clear in NSW is that track and trace is only effective if the local transmission number is low. Once the local transmission is out of control, T&T, won't be able to control it.

Testing is key, but frankly, being an island I've never understood why the UK didn't close borders like Australia or New Zealand did. Yes, I've heard about being "a hub" in business and all that crap, but it doesn't convince me. The UK could have imposed stricter border's controls, similar to Australia which are almost virus free locally.

We are functioning almost as normal - work, having friends at home, going for a coffee or a meal out. Local businesses are booming and even the tourism industry is recovering - we can't go overseas so we are holidaying local at home. And the local tourist industry is loving it.

Australia and New Zealand are going to open international borders to the world when there is a vaccine and herd community can be achieved. In the meantime we will have an international bubble between us and keep our economies tickling.

Australia's consumer confidence soared in October in a 2 year high and I truly believe we are going to emerge from this nightmare with no more than 7% unemployment due to the travel sector. My hairdresser told me her 16 year old son decided to leave school in year 10 to begin work and is earning $A1100 net a week lying pipe lines to the new airport in Sydney.

I think Europe, UK and USA missed the memo completely in this pandemic. Track and trace is not enough. Decisions controlling borders are essential to begin with.

[PurpleDaisies]

Of course he didn’t mention it. It’s a huge embarrassment because it’s been so poor. I’m sure they’ll be trying to improve it before the four weeks are up.

[StealthPolarBear]

Yes but if lockdown reduces the numbers ss it should we need a working T&T ready to go

[Ylvamoon]

Track & Trace does not work because people are not complying. If people were as scared of this virus as MN suggest, then it would have worked.
While the general public and employers don't take Track and Trace seriously, there is no pressure for government to implement a better financial support system for those who are isolating.
The result is more restrictions and an other lockdown. We had it all coming!