We can’t afford a second lockdown - Uk already heading for a double dip recession

[LilMama05]

How much more of this can we truly afford? I would love to lockdown again and save lives but is this actually economically viable anymore.

www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/30/covid-19-second-wave-pushing-uk-to-brink-of-double-dip-recession

[swg1]

AND ALSO you with your "oh well can't we just shield the vulnerable" do you know who actually spends in shops these days? It's not mum and dad; they might do a quick trip to see Fenwicks window but do you really think their one off hot chocolate and trip to see Santa is keeping the economy afloat? Mum and Dad buy off Amazon these days; life is busy and it's quicker.

The people who keep all the daytime stuff financially solvent? IT'S GRANNY. Coming into town on her free bus pass, having her mince pie in M&S cafe, cruising around Lakeland Plastics and refusing to buy online because she doesn't like it.

And do you think your opening up as normal is going to have her walking your plague-riddled city? Because I really don't think so.

[MushMonster]

Roll in 2021! That will get the PPE, testing, and doctors/ nurses sorted😜

[FourTeaFallOut]

[quote Bouncycastle12]@FourTeaFallOut Of course lockdown was to save lives. It’s regarded as a blunt instrument by everyone from the WHO down, and no one - but NO ONE - regards it as a way of boosting consumer confidence. It’s sole purpose is to save lives - and given the catastrophic knock on on every other element of healthcare (heart treatment, cancer diagnoses) it’s not especially clear it’s effective at that. And SAGe said the two week circuit breaker would save 7000 lives. So yes, you can quantify the number of lives it saves.[/quote]
I'm not talking in black and white. I'm saying that a country ravaged by covid is a country that is failing not only to protect the vulnerable but it's also an economy which is utterly stalled. And it was based in this information that we locked down.

Given that we will never have a sliding doors moment to compare, we'll never know which has the greater economic fall out, or which was the better decision.

[RainbowParadise]

@MushMonster

Yes, most definitively health comes first.
Test and trace needs t o step up. And the public needs to fully collaborate. No false names and numbers, no house parties, and so on....
And we need to focus on increasing health system capacity, mainly for the other patients, who need treatment too.
Then hopefully we will not need extreme lockdowns, but maybe softer local ones on high incidence areas.

Do you know what might have actually helped with public cooperation (and btw I do actually believe that the vast majority of people have actually been cooperating pretty damn well- they admitted early on the expectation was never for 100% compliance anyway)?

It might have helped if earlier in the summer, once lockdown had done its job, they had allowed people to see family/friends outside much sooner. If they hadn't made the last days of the elderly/terminally ill completely horrendous by not allowing them to see anyone. If they had had some compassion about people being able to see their partners. If they hadn't tried to blame young people for 'killing granny' (nothing to do with them sending the elderly back to care homes from hospital taking corona with them then)

Had they allowed more social contact in safe ways at an earlier stage (and also allowed businesses that would have been safe to operate) then perhaps people wouldn't be so utterly low and angry right now. If they'd given some kind of sign that mental health meant anything at all to them.

You cannot expect human beings to be able to go against millennia of what is innate behaviour, necessary behaviour. Not to these extremes for this length of time. The government know there is a time limit on how long people will comply. This was THEIR responsibility, to get right, for all of our sakes. They had all summer. And they fucked it up. Why would Boris change the habit of a lifetime I guess?

[MordredsOrrery]

We just have to hang in there until January 1st when, iirc, the NHS will start getting the £350m a week promised on the bus. At which point what's left of the economy can continue and the NHS will at least have money to pay for the tens of thousands who are hospitalised or incapacitated by long covid.

[FourTeaFallOut]

[quote Ecosse]@FourTeaFallOut

As a management consultant, I do have a good understanding of a wide range of issues.

I also have the critical thinking skills to be able to analyse statements put forward and challenge them.[/quote]
And this makes you qualified to speak on the shape of long covid, it's causes and medical consequences, does it?

Maybe it's your super amazing critical thinking skills that allows you to declare long covid as fake news without any compunction to back your statement?

[MushMonster]

Yes, most definitively health comes first.
Test and trace needs t o step up. And the public needs to fully collaborate. No false names and numbers, no house parties, and so on....
And we need to focus on increasing health system capacity, mainly for the other patients, who need treatment too.
Then hopefully we will not need extreme lockdowns, but maybe softer local ones on high incidence areas.

[Bouncycastle12]

@FourTeaFallOut Of course lockdown was to save lives. It’s regarded as a blunt instrument by everyone from the WHO down, and no one - but NO ONE - regards it as a way of boosting consumer confidence. It’s sole purpose is to save lives - and given the catastrophic knock on on every other element of healthcare (heart treatment, cancer diagnoses) it’s not especially clear it’s effective at that. And SAGe said the two week circuit breaker would save 7000 lives. So yes, you can quantify the number of lives it saves.

[swg1]

Alternate viewpoint. What's happening right now is pure economic sadism.

Imagine you're a pub. You're in an area that is already Tier 2. There keep being rumours that you're "about" to go into Tier 3. What the hell do you do?

Do you trust the rumours? In which case reduce your fresh food order because it'll get wasted. But if you do that and then the government goes "haaa, we never said you'd be Tier 3 you fools!" then you're not going to be compensated. Do you plan events or do you save your time and money and go bust slightly slower?

And then if you do go into T3 what then? Apparently you're staying there until R drops below 1 in which case honestly it's probably spring because T3 doesn't reduce numbers that quickly and even under Rishi's scheme you should lay your staff off. Or they could just cancel the whole tier system and do a hard lockdown so we might be out in limited capacity by Christmas in which case you might be wanting to retain your staff to try to cut your losses with Christmas dinner.

Quit whining about people in secure jobs. How the hell do you think the current policy is HELPING? A lockdown at least has the possibility of not being stuck in it until March.

[SheepandCow]

Prof Sridhar also explains:

Two approaches: either keeping borders largely open like the UK, but adopting harsh domestic restrictions to try to combat community transmission; or having very tight border controls, like Taiwan and New Zealand, but few restrictions on everyday life.

Europe paying for summer holidays with winter lockdowns.

theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/coronavirus-strain-from-spain-accounts-for-most-uk-cases-study

[RainbowParadise]

@Completmentfille

This whole thing has become so toxic and poisonous. There's no nuance. In people's heads you are a kill-the-elderly, let-the-virus-run-unchecked, selfish covid denier, or you are a lockdown everything until a vaccine.

For me personally I don't want to go to the pub and I don't want to have parties with friends. I would like, however, to see my mum and sisters. I would choose to do that over having my DS in school.

Agree completely there too. I have been quite happily going to the pub a few times as carefully as possible. You know what, on a personal level I don't care about going to the pub- what I do care about is the people whose businesses and livelihoods will be down the drain if forced to shut again.

There has never been enough balance and consideration given to mental health, and the future of children/young people- their education, their employment and life chances. And tbh, not enough consideration to what the hell life is going to be like for everyone when this is done. It does not seem proportionate, I'm sorry but on a society wide level it just isn't. The research and studies into this in years to come is probably going to be horrifying- the impact on public health, mental health, life chances and opportunities etc.

But it is all such a mess that everyone is in danger if the health system etc is overwhelmed. They have messed it up so badly that we are all suffering worse than necessary. I don't know what the fuck the answer is now.

[ContraIndicated]

The second wave is pushing us into a double dip recession. That’s without a lockdown. The virus is what destroys the economy, not lockdowns. Getting it under control is the only way to save the economy.

[MadameBlobby]

@Bouncycastle12

And I also don’t understand the obsession with “saving” Christmas. It’s one day. I’d rather they focused on saving the fucking economy.

I’m not bothered either.

[SheepandCow]

Prof Sridhar explains (again, my bold):

Control your virus, solve your public health problem and then you get your economic recovery If you try and do both we will just see cycles of lockdown and release

[LastGoldenDaysOfSummer]

Ah. Management consultants - straight from the B ark in Hitchhiker's guide.

I'll listen to people qualified to comment, thanks.

[SheepandCow]

The scientific expert advising the Scottish government explains things very well. (My bold).

@devisridhar
On a panel with several CEOs yesterday and their message was clear -> it's the virus impacting consumer behaviour & their businesses, not just restrictions. Already clear that controlling the virus with a clear strategy is best route to economic recovery.

And

Such false logic: uncontrolled spread doesn’t mean ‘just some people die.’ It means health services collapsing bc of high COVID hospitalisation rate (so all patients suffer), lasting economic damage from people being scared & changing behaviour, & society going backwards.

[FourTeaFallOut]

The cost of lockdown is completely disproportionate to the lives saved

Firstly, how do you know how many lives were saved, on account that the majority of people who were saved by the lockdown were saved through lack of exposure- due to the lock down?

Secondly, are you under the impression that the lockdown was just to save lives? Are you willfully disregarding the drive to protect the economy which thrives and dies on consumer confidence, confidence that is hard to come by when a pandemic runs free and decimates the NHS?

Because I don't know where financially the tipping point is but I'll hazard a guess neither do you if think the Tories locked down just to save the lives.

[Bouncycastle12]

And I also don’t understand the obsession with “saving” Christmas. It’s one day. I’d rather they focused on saving the fucking economy.

[TrainspottingWelsh]

Of course we can. It's only the young and/ or the low paid that will really suffer from recession, so who gives a fuck?The novelty of blaming the young seems to be waning so we can just blame everybody that can't work from home or that can't afford to self isolate for being selfish bastards.

[Completmentfille]

It is a complete mess here because we are trying to protect a health service that has been run into the ground by successive governments, especially the ones over the past 10 years. It is a mess because of the government. But then have been successful again at what they always try to do- divide and rule- and have the public blaming eachother, conveniently trying to shift the blame when it is their incompetence that has made this so bad.

This 100%. Stop blaming Doris from next door for having her kids over and start blaming the government.

[Completmentfille]

As a management consultant, I do have a good understanding of a wide range of issues.

Not my experience of management consultants

[RainbowParadise]

@KarmaNoMore

We wouldn’t be going into extreme measures if there were not so many people breaking the rules. We brought this upon ourselves.

Will people please stop peddling this absolute fucking nonsense? The virus is having a strong resurgence everywhere- all across Europe- even in places like Germany where they have a leader actually capable of you know, behaving like an adult and taking sensible measures.

It is a complete mess here because we are trying to protect a health service that has been run into the ground by successive governments, especially the ones over the past 10 years. It is a mess because of the government. But then have been successful again at what they always try to do- divide and rule- and have the public blaming eachother, conveniently trying to shift the blame when it is their incompetence that has made this so bad.

[MaxNormal]

We brought this upon ourselves.

No, viruses spread, it what they do. Same all over Europe as we go into autumn. Stop blaming people for being people, the government must be rubbing their hands with glee at people blaming each other.

[Completmentfille]

This whole thing has become so toxic and poisonous. There's no nuance. In people's heads you are a kill-the-elderly, let-the-virus-run-unchecked, selfish covid denier, or you are a lockdown everything until a vaccine.

For me personally I don't want to go to the pub and I don't want to have parties with friends. I would like, however, to see my mum and sisters. I would choose to do that over having my DS in school.

[MadameBlobby]

@RainbowParadise

That's the thing isn't it, the fucking shambles of a government have fucked up everything at every stage and have heaped even more misery on all of us because they are such an abysmal failure. I thought the past ten years if the bastards were enough of a race to the bottom but it really does seem to be 'how low can you go' with them.

Had they sorted out track and trace maybe it wouldn't be like this. The government have completely shat on democracy and have behaved like an authoritarian regime, parliament seems to be completely redundant. The powers to make it illegal to see family are overreaching in the extreme and go beyond what is proportionate. At the same time I don't believe in letting the virus run unchecked at all and realise what a disaster that could be too. It's a fucking mess because they are incompetent, and there's no good option. Brexit to look forward to as well!

How anyone elected the selfish, arrogant, and sexually incontinent arsehole that is Boris is beyond me.

This!!!!