Now we know why the govt were suppressing the schools infection data

[noblegiraffe]

...because for secondary it’s very worrying.

They choose to release it the day before we break up for half term, too late for any circuit breaker like the other U.K. countries.

They’ve quietly removed the assertion that schools aren’t high risk settings from the guidance. At what point are they going to start to be honest about the risks, particularly in sixth forms and colleges?

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928749/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W43_FINAL.pdf

I really wish they would stop sending the entire year (or bubble) home in primaries. They should just send home the poorly child and maybe whoever they sit next to at lunch.

Oh yes send home those who they spend half an hour with at lunch rather than those who they sit next to every lesson. Or the teacher who spends all day in their presence also.

[quote anniegun]Here is a proper study from a sane country (Germany) that shows no impact on infection rates by re-opening schools ftp.iza.org/dp13790[/quote]
Yeah, did you read the measures that they took to make this happen?

"This common framework provided guidelines for a wide range of hygiene measures, wearing of face masks, ventilation and disinfection of classrooms, social distancing rules, separation of groups to facilitate contact tracing and regular testing of teachers and students. Students, teachers and parents showing symptoms related to COVID-19 were not allowed to enter the school perimeter. When new infections were detected, relevant groups were immediately quarantined, with other groups remaining in school and being closely monitored for additional new cases."

We could have done that. We didn't.

Firstly, it's not possible to furlough public sector staff and secondly, staff who are furloughed are not permitted to work for the company which has furloughed them.

Of course it's possible. They could just pay us half our salary if our employer is shut. I am not sure why you say it's not possible. The govt makes the laws.

@notevenat20

I really wish they would stop sending the entire year (or bubble) home in primaries. They should just send home the poorly child and maybe whoever they sit next to at lunch.

Personally, I rather like it when they stick to the boring old science and try to isolate contacts effectively. That is the point of the exercise.

If half the class was in either half the week, or half the class for a whole week followed by a week at home, would this create extra work for teachers? if you have to prepare half a weeks or a weeks learning resources and set a lot of work for home learning this must need a lot a planning time?

And increasing, which is important, yes?

Well - the latest week's data shows a levelling off, if not a decline, for all the school age groups. The data may not be entirely complete, but given it's week 42 (12-18 Oct) it will be largely there.

Also to factor in - it’s increasingly looking like much of the Covid spread is down to ‘super spreading events’ that happen not that often, but account for maybe 70-80% of the spread.

So there is not a uniform or even ‘transmission’.

In other words, several children could have covid. All isolated cases in different classes.

In many of those cases, there will be no or small transmission, perhaps not to anyone, or only one or two.

However ONE of these cases is the super spreader. They will infect several in a whole class, go home and infect their family, infect their sports club (this is assuming children transmit as much which I know is still debated, but no reason NOT to think children can’t be super spreaders too).

This is how the virus ‘jumps’ and then several households will be infected.

Anyway studies are finally underway and there are also studies into infectiousness of asymptomatic children. So hopefully soon this will no longer be speculation there will be hard data to make decisions from. Something which has been severely lacking to date.

Oh yes send home those who they spend half an hour with at lunch rather than those who they sit next to every lesson. Or the teacher who spends all day in their presence also.

If it turns out that the parents of primary school children are getting covid much more than other people, I would agree with you.

@Greysparkles

Why is there such a difference between numbers for the younger/older year groups?

Are the majority of infections happening in school or outside of it?

The difference isn't that great, the graphs for the younger/older years are completely different. If anything the younger years look slightly more.

Wonder why they did that

Different scales

So in response to @notevenat20 that is not a good idea in Public Health Terms. The virus is aerosol based and no one knows when a super spreading event will happen.

@PatriciaHolm

And increasing, which is important, yes?

Well - the latest week's data shows a levelling off, if not a decline, for all the school age groups. The data may not be entirely complete, but given it's week 42 (12-18 Oct) it will be largely there.

It says in the report "Data for the most recent week are provisional and likely to be an underestimate"

There'll be a decline next week because it's half term (some schools have half term this week too) but the point is, schools are an issue when it comes to transmission. We were told they wouldn't be and that's why no masks, no social distancing, no screens etc etc.

Fewer children in school would lower the risk.
Allowing children to be taken out, without fines and having to deregister.
Blended learning for some subjects.
Vulnerable teachers and children could work from home.

I'm really enjoying being back in school. I don't want it to close. I have 4 classes doing gcse and a levels next summer and I'm terrified for them.

But.

Numbers of cv kids have rocketed. We've had huge numbers of staff off every day. School is fucking freezing. Some kids have had to isolate twice, so 4 weeks out of an 8 week term. I really don't think it's sustainable, but I don't know what the answer is.

Personally, I rather like it when they stick to the boring old science and try to isolate contacts effectively. That is the point of the exercise.

There is no reason to believe that the French understand science differently to us. The problem is that there is no crystal clear science on infectious transmission by primary school children and there is also a basket of other massively important considerations to take into account.

@Ecosse: "And that is exactly why schools need to and will be remaining open on a full time basis."

Erm, sorry to be the harbinger of doom for you, but here's some news: Many, many schools are NOT currently open on a full-time basis.

Do you think that by keep repeating this nugget, it will make it come true?

We are in Wales, just about to start the two week circuit breaker.
But year 7 and 8 are going back on the second week, after their half term.
I am struggling to fully understand this one to be honest. Though the graphs do show year 7 and 8 to be at less risk that the rest in secondaries.... Still it is not what I would call tiny.
Funny enough, just after they opened schools several local schools sent years home for positive cases. Most were in year 7, through different schools.

As a teacher I mostly just appalled at the number of people on here suggesting I live stream my lessons that I am teaching. That would give no regard for my privacy, my students privacy (Every parent would know which children were told off or praised) and open me up to a wealth of criticism for even the smallest thing. Let’s be honest Mumsnet is pretty good evidence for that happening. I’ve been a teacher for a very long time and have no qualms with being observed or with any member of staff dropping in and out of my lessons or with teaching via zoom/Microsoft teams and the like. But I absolutely will not live stream a lesson and become someone under constant surveillance.

@notevenat20

Oh yes send home those who they spend half an hour with at lunch rather than those who they sit next to every lesson. Or the teacher who spends all day in their presence also.

If it turns out that the parents of primary school children are getting covid much more than other people, I would agree with you.

"Oh, it's just a cough. We've all had it. No point in getting tested, though. It takes too long and we can't afford the time off work. I'm sure it's just a cold, don't worry, bye, see you later."

[A set of remarks i imagine that pretty much every primary teacher on here has overheard over the last few weeks]

Basically, parents are not getting themselves or their children tested, because the lack of test availability makes the risk of lost income too high.

Blended learning is not an option because teachers cannot be in two places at once.

I'm aware of this, I'm a teacher. I meant part time. Teachers teach the kids in school for 2 days a week. One day prep. Other half of kids in the other 2 days. More chance of SD happening.

Not ideal, but better than dead people.

They need to cancel exams for next year now.

So in response to @notevenat20 that is not a good idea in Public Health Terms. The virus is aerosol based and no one knows when a super spreading event will happen.

I am not sure you are applying the ideas currently.

If it turns out that the parents of primary school children are getting covid much more than other people, I would agree with you.

My friends two dc sent home last week with a positive case in their classes.
She tested positive last weekend. I am sure it’s happening and hopefully like you say as more data is emerging we might see how children actually spread the virus. As it stands we need to be cautious rather than just send the ‘ill’ child home. Or we are just hoping for the best surely ?

@CallmeAngelina

95% of DC are not off school because of COVID outbreaks. They are in school learning where they should be.

@Ecosse

Schools must stay open- both for the economy and DC’s future life chances. I would allow vulnerable staff and DC to stay at home however.

To be frank transmission figures are window dressing. Schools must and will stay open on a full time basis.

Well no.

Lets see how the nation manages over the winter.

This is, after all, a government much given to U turns and driven by pragmatism.

There is no must and will to any of this.

I just hope that, since we don't have an intelligent and workable plan at the moment, we have good luck instead.

The best plan would have been a flexible one, with blended learning on the table, and the possibility of more intensive support for those who need it more badly. Late teenagers should be able to take some responsibility for their own learning, they would in a 6th form college, and it's good preparation for University.

Since we don't have a sensible plan, or many mitigations in school against the spread of infection, fingers crossed, but it may be a bumpy ride ahead.