Is this really it until March 2021?

[mummabear1967]

So, these new restrictions will last until March next year - 6 months from now.

Is there even a guarantee that things will even be better by March next year?

[whatswithtodaytoday]

The early vaccines may not be as effective as we would like, but they will need to be 50% effective to pass the trials. I've read 70% as a more realistic figure, which would reduce community spread enough to protect the vulnerable (herd immunity is believed to be around 70%). As the years go on, if Covid-19 is still a problem worldwide, better vaccines will be developed.

I do think it's likely face masks will continue to be worn in indoor public areas into next winter, as I doubt the ability of our government to get a mass vaccination programme rolled out... However, I do think if a vaccine is approved this year or early next we will have a decent amount of people vaccinated by this time next year - the government have already bought huge amounts of some of the most advanced vaccines.

Personally I will be happy to have it (I'm just under 40), and so will my partner and parents. I'm not absolutely sure about my child yet, but I think vaccination of children will be way down the list anyway.

[PhilCornwall1]

Would lifting of restriction for those who are vaccinated act as a motivator? I think so.

Which is fine if people are able to medically have the vaccine. If it's a live one, it's not one I can ever have, but I can't/won't stay restricted because of that.

[CountessFrog]

I’m unwilling to vaccine my children. I’ll take it for the team, I’ll talk DH into getting the vaccine. I’m unhappy giving it to the children.

I do wonder what the government will do. Will they give us an armband to prove we’ve been vaccinated (like in the film, Contagion)? Would lifting of restriction for those who are vaccinated act as a motivator? I think so.

[BlueBlancmange]

@MummyPop00

If no vaccine or treatment, and we manage to suppress this thing to average 5,000 cases a day to avoid swamping the NHS it would take 22 years to reach Patrick Vallances 60% herd immunity figure. 22 years of locking / unlocking society. I think I’d rather take my chances with the virus.

Well it looks like reinfection can occur, so even 22 years likely wouldn't suffice :( We have to hope science can rescue us.

[PinkJellycat]

@CountessFrog

Good question - because given his experience earlier this year, I was shocked he wouldn’t have it.

He just thinks it’s been rushed. Friends in pharma said ‘I’d want to see lots more people have it before I’d be happy.’

Having said that, he listened to Sarah Gilbert on Radio 4’s ‘The Life Scientific’ (worth a listen) and was slightly swayed - but I think if offered tomorrow he would still refuse it.

That makes sense. I do agree it's rushed but from what I have heard, all components used and trialled are currently being used in alternative vaccines so it's not a "new" thing so to speak.

Thank you for answering though. I would be unsure about allowing DD to have it for the same reasons.

[BlueBlancmange]

@Hollyhead

I think it’s unlikely the vaccine will be offered to everyone anyway, certainly not next year, next year will be key workers and elderly.
The state of the economy is hugely concerning, like desperately so, people don’t seem to put 2+2 together - without tax revenue from business how do you even have an NHS? People have made it the grubbier argument to just care about the economy, but without it we’re nothing.

If it’s spreading with all the restrictions we already have we just have to get on with it. And I realise that means I or a loved one could die, and yes that’s scary because it wasn’t something I previously had to worry about them dying from, but we can’t just stop forever.

It sounds like they are able to manufacture vaccines fairly quickly and they are talking about having a large number of people administering it, so I would have thought once one is (hopefully) approved, they will make sure people are vaccinated fairly quickly.

[cyclingmad]

We sre like caged chickens in a way being let out when they decide they want us to for a few months over summer, then back in you go, then back out again ...rinse repeat...

[Miljea]

@GRain5

This is going to bankrupt the country. Bleak

What Covid fails to achieve, Brexit will....

[MadameBlobby]

*trajectory

Bloody phone

[MadameBlobby]

But is March the correct time for comparison? Not before that ie February when we weren’t doing anything? Even with masks, if we don’t take further measures, won’t we get to doubling 2/3 days anyway pretty soon masks or not? Or was there a time in Feb we were at cases doubling every 7/8 days as well?

I have seen nothing to suggest they are making a difference, given cases seem to be rising exponentially and not on a slower trajector, i don’t know if there’s a graph or something somewhere that would show the projections now without masks?

[MummyPop00]

@hollyhead

I don’t often agree with Donald Trump very much at all but think he’s got some valid points regarding the WHO. They have definitely got some questions to answer.

[ThatDamnScientist]

@MadameBlobby

They know more about the virus now. Face masks seem to do bugger all anyway given cases have risen exponentially since we had to start wearing them.

But cases are doubling every 7/8 days with masks - without we were looking at every 2/3 days (march).

[Hollyhead]

@MummyPop00 yeah people have forgotten what a shite job of this the WHO did in January. They didn’t confirm human to human transmission until January 15th, by which time we now know deaths had started in Europe. They’re the ones with the most blood on their hands.

[MaxNormal]

I don't see how the measures and social distancing can last beyond March, the country would be finished, it would make the covid pandemic look like a treat.

[MummyPop00]

@MadameBlobby

Well we will see soon enough I guess.

Totally with you on facemasks btw!

[RaffleYerself]

I’m really not mentally coping with this now.

[MadameBlobby]

They know more about the virus now. Face masks seem to do bugger all anyway given cases have risen exponentially since we had to start wearing them.

[MummyPop00]

Well yes you would like to think so, but the same WHO as I said were against face masks & were also against restrictions on travel to/from China initially so forgive me if I’m a little more sceptical.

[Legoandloldolls]

No there are no guarantees here.

Unless there is a mass rollout of vaccine by then ( unlikely) we will be no different to this March in March 21. Unless we got closer to herd immunity, which now also doesnt look like a fix all situation either.

It's looking IMO that CV is here for the medium to long term. I'm hoping that things will be better by next summer.

I hate this but I think its personally better to be realistic.

[MadameBlobby]

With respect, I would anticipate that they know more than you (or mr, or anyone else)

[MummyPop00]

But what about the time it would take to a) develop one with sufficient efficacy and b) distribute it?

That could easily (most probably) take that length of time?

So, the answer must be that they really don’t know.

[MadameBlobby]

If this is only going to last two years why the hell bent global pursuit of a vaccine then?

Because in only a third of that time it’s killed a million people and trashed economies worldwide?

[MummyPop00]

The WHO were also not in favour of face masks initially. Maybe they are right, maybe they are wrong.

If this is only going to last two years why the hell bent global pursuit of a vaccine then?

[MadameBlobby]

Gloom

Bloody phone

[MadameBlobby]

@daytripper28

We can’t go round wearing masks and social distancing indefinitely

Maybe we will have to

Society can’t function this way long term, so no, we won’t.

Even WHO have said they think the pandemic will last less than 2 years. The doom and goon on here is ridiculous