WHO advises follow Sweden now

[Pixel7777]

In the news today..

"One of the World Health Organization’s six special envoys on coronavirus has said other countries should emulate Sweden’s virus response as a model for the long-term. Sweden has avoided introducing hard lockdown measures, and seen its case numbers fall in recent months - sparking a global debate about the efficacy of lockdowns"

[Pixel7777]

WHO also saying recently they think the UK could do well from now on..

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852

This sounded positive.

[BigChocFrenzy]

However, as an approach for what we do now with very low infections,
Sweden's approach of limited SD but mostly normal life could work for say the UK and Germany,
but maybe not for Spain or France.

it is a totally different situation to a "novel" virus in March-April and cases in the Uk now are probably only about 3% of cases then

btw, Sweden reportedly now has massive demand for masks, up to a year's normal sales in 1 week
and it is expected that the advice from their health ministry on masks will change soon.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Neither the Sweden nor New Zealand strategy is suitable for a densely populated country like the UK, with so many international connections

Also, both countries have strong trust in their government, eseential for either of their strategies

Sweden has 5-12 x deaths / million of its Scandinavian neighbours with similar population density and culture who locked down

Their GDP loss by the end of 2020 is predicted to be about the same as their neighbours

Sweden even have 5.5 x deaths / million of Germany, which has 10 x its population density and similar predicted GDP loss too.

They still have more cases / 100,000 population than their neighbours

• and the UK, which has 12 x its population density

Multiples of the total UK deaths would have crashed the economy far worse than the current situation
It isn't lives vs economy, because people don't continue as normal when deaths are high

[LangClegsInSpace]

However what does WHO think of NZ?

If you watch the interview that Coffee linked to, Dr Nabarro says NZ's response has been exemplary, that they took the virus seriously from the start and have been able to avoid large scale transmission and high death rates. He said he thinks NZ can continue to lead the way. He said he thinks the very short-term lockdown in Aukland is necessary because although there are only 4 cases, they can't be linked to known outbreaks through contact tracing and the cases seen today are a reflection of transmission that was happening about 10 days ago, so they need to buy a bit of time to work out where and how these infections occurred.

[TheKeatingFive]

I don’t think Sweden borrowed up to its eyeballs to fund businesses shutting down. It also avoided serious disruption to children’s schooling. Both significant advantages.

[LangClegsInSpace]

@Reallybadidea

Lockdown and complete suppression of the virus is a blunt tool with severe consequences in itself. Lockdown was unfortunately unavoidable in the spring because the government had allowed the virus to spread too widely for softer measures to be effective. It was never going to be a long term solution because then the consequences of lockdown become worse than the disease itself.

Lockdown should have been used to get proper track and trace systems up and running, come up with creative solutions to allow schools to keep running through future surges/waves and to build up health care capacity so further lockdowns aren't necessary. I think we've squandered this time.

Great post.

[LangClegsInSpace]

thats helpful seeing as theyb originally said the sooner we lockdown the better

Throughout this pandemic WHO has consistently advised that the cornerstone of every country's response must be to find, test, isolate and care for every case, trace and quarantine every contact.

They have consistently said that lockdown measures are for when you have lost control of the virus - if you don't know where the virus is, you have to keep everyone away from everyone else, rather than just isolating cases and contacts. That all a lockdown does is buy some time to build up our public health systems so we can find cases and trace contacts and so get back in control of outbreaks. That any lockdown measures should be as localised as possible and for as short a time as possible.

WHO have never said the sooner we lockdown the better.

In early March, they criticised certain European countries - 'You know who you are' - for an alarming level of inaction. But if you watch that press conference it was all about getting the right testing strategy, isolating cases, contact tracing and quarantine, as well as building up health services, integrating different levels of government, clear public health communication and building trust between the government and the public.

[trickyex]

Reallybad I agree. It seems a huge shame that the time wasnt better used.
I really hope we dont have to keep our children off school again.

[Reallybadidea]

Lockdown and complete suppression of the virus is a blunt tool with severe consequences in itself. Lockdown was unfortunately unavoidable in the spring because the government had allowed the virus to spread too widely for softer measures to be effective. It was never going to be a long term solution because then the consequences of lockdown become worse than the disease itself.

Lockdown should have been used to get proper track and trace systems up and running, come up with creative solutions to allow schools to keep running through future surges/waves and to build up health care capacity so further lockdowns aren't necessary. I think we've squandered this time.

[trickyex]

I think it would be hard for many countries to emulate Sweden as its far less populated and much larger than many other countries, the population is generally healthier and public facilities are cleaner and in less demand (no shortage of clean public loos for example).

[GailWeathers9]

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/10/britain-has-biggest-primary-school-classes-developed-world-report/

[GailWeathers9]

78. The average number of pupils was 19 per class/education group. Looking at the municipal school, the class size varied from as low as 13 to as high as 22 pupils on average per class.
    
    www.oecd.org/education/school/CBR_OECD_SRR_SE-FINAL.pdf
    
    Classrooms are larger. Funding is better there. For contrast on one issue, entire banks of sinks have been provided. Our schools didn’t even get extra money for sanitiser

[GailWeathers9]

The average class size is 19. Even pre Covid.

[thecatsatonthewall]

I think what the Germans did and are doing would be a better example to follow e.g. their children sat exams in may/june.

[MarshaBradyo]

Compared to other other similar countries, Sweden had a terrible death rate AND their economy is more fucked. So what, exactly, should we be emulating?

If Sweden are worse now to their group, then we may well be worse to comparable countries if we followed same approach.

Although I am ok with where we are, businesses open SD and schools back.

Furlough etc was a big hit though, did they do any of that? Or just lower profits presumably in businesses but still functioning.

Hard one. It is important to note the context of what was said though.

[twobarnsmammisonthebus]

I wouldn’t say that Sweden has smaller class sizes - around 28 seems to be the norm as far as I’m aware.

[GailWeathers9]

What we are doing right now is pretty much what Sweden are doing. They voluntarily distanced themselves (and their economy took a hit too)

There are differences. For example their schools are well funded, classes are small and social distancing is possible in schools.

Not like here.

[Eyewhisker]

The actual Swedish death rate is roughly 1/10th of what Ferguson predicted with their strategy (i.e. no lockdown) and over half of those deaths are care home residents who already have very limited life-expectancy.

Although they have overall low population density, 85% of the population live in urban areas where they go to school, university, work, cafes, use public transport etc.

Their economic cost is much much lower than ours. Their GDP fell by 8.6% in the second quarter, ours by 20%. Not to mention the enormous additional debt added to the U.K. economy from forced closure which we and our children will be paying back.

Sweden has shown that it is possible to live with the virus in a Western country without shutting schools, stopping the health service for non-covid treatment, stopping dental services (unless you pay) etc. It does not mean letting it rip, but it does mean not panicking and closing everything down when there are asymtomatic cases among healthy young people.

[countrygirl99]

Re population density - 30% of Swedes live in just 7 cities.

[SansaSnark]

Compared to other other similar countries, Sweden had a terrible death rate AND their economy is more fucked. So what, exactly, should we be emulating?

I also agree that their strategy only worked in so far as it did because they provided proper government support for those self isolating and they have a well funded health system. Schools in Sweden also have much lower class sizes than the UK, I believe.

In the summer, when Swedish cases started to come down, I believe a lot of people go to holiday homes outside the cities, which will also have some bearing on population density, so I do think that is relevant.

It sounds like OP has taken a quote out of context anyway, but I really can't see how we could emulate a Swedish model in the UK even if it was desirable

[thecatsatonthewall]

Family member was tested twice for Covid before being moved to a Care home in Scotland. So some were following the rules

Testing of the elderly before going to a care home was never a guideline, let alone a "rule"
The reality is the govt said in March/April that CV posed little or no threat to the elderly or care home staff.

[MistressMounthaven]

Family member was tested twice for Covid before being moved to a Care home in Scotland. So some were following the rules.

[LangClegsInSpace]

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]Full interview is here:
www.magic.co.nz/home/news/2020/08/nz-should-move-to-similar-approach-to-covid-as-sweden--who-speci.html[/quote]
Thank you for this, Coffee.

It's well worth listening to the whole thing and especially focusing on what Dr Nabarro actually says, not on the way the interviewer is trying to frame it.

[Derbygerbil]

@Eyewhisker

We’ve disagreed quite a bit on here, but I broadly agree with your last post.

The only other ingredient you need to make Sweden’s strategy work is the people. I’m not sure we’re compliant or community minded enough (which be true for most other countries too, not just the U.K.).

[Derbygerbil]

We were absolutely not overwhelmed

But at what cost.... We repurposed much of our health provision to cope (albeit that wasn’t needed in low infection areas like the West Country,
but it absolutely was in London).

Had we not done that, not only would we have been overwhelmed as we tried to carry on regardless (broken leg? No problem. Covid? Sorry, we’re full!)