Track and Trace

[sunglasses123]

So once T&T is up and running and you get a notification that you have been in close contact with someone with CV19. You could be bleeped all the time especially if you are meeting your family which I believe is one of the highest risks and one of them has it Passing someone within 2 metres in a supermarket has little risk.

If for example its the winter and you are due to go on holiday, get married, go to a funeral etc and you are told to isolate then why would some people even get the app if they thought they would be stopped from doing something pre booked/arranged.

I see the younger people even less likely to have the track and trace because even if they had it they are likely to have symptons.

Or do we think its likely that its only with severe cases with a huge viral load given to you that will result in you being asked to self isolate.

I work at home most of the time anyway so this wouldnt be a big issue for me (unless I was about to go on holiday - I suspect your travel insurance would not cover you for this scenario) but for others I can envisage huge concerns going forward.

[JudyCoolibar]

@Xenia

They are doing heaps better than Labour would have done. Thank goodness people did not vote Labour in. It would have been much worse.

Ludicrous thing to say, particularly in light of our appalling death rate under the Conservatives.

I suspect New Zealanders are absolutely delighted to have a Labour government in power.

[Sarahbeans]

Xenia
They are doing heaps better than Labour would have done. Thank goodness people did not vote Labour in. It would have been much worse.


This is a worthless claim because you have no idea if it's correct or not. The same with anyone who confidently tells us any other party would be doing better. As none of you have the foggiest, it's just people doing tribalism.

Agreed, we have no idea how they would have done. Although I suspect if they were in, they would be crucified for furloughing staff and the old that you can't trust Labour with the economy would have been thrown against them. So perhaps, it's better that the Conservatives have got to fuck up this crisis, because we might now stand more of a chance of changing our government next time.

[BlackberryCane]

@Xenia

They are doing heaps better than Labour would have done. Thank goodness people did not vote Labour in. It would have been much worse.

This is a worthless claim because you have no idea if it's correct or not. The same with anyone who confidently tells us any other party would be doing better. As none of you have the foggiest, it's just people doing tribalism.

[Parker231]

@B1rdbra1n - I agree. The UK’s handling of the pandemic is becoming as bad as Trumps. The only positive is that this disaster of a government will be shortening their time in office. The Tories popularity is dropping each week.

[Xenia]

They are doing heaps better than Labour would have done. Thank goodness people did not vote Labour in. It would have been much worse.

[jasjas1973]

Seems "World class" to me lol!

[SophieB100]

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/30/boris-johnsons-test-and-tracing-system-britain-lockdown

Shameful

[jasjas1973]

The UK has always been very good at boasting its got world class military, police, nhs, education, transport, roads, trains, judiciary, prisons, countryside, economy, science....& even admired for its pandemic preparedness/response.... its bloody Utopia here!!!

[B1rdbra1n]

Boris really is turning into trump isn't he, bragging about a world-class system when it's nothing of the sort 😥

[B1rdbra1n]

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/30/boris-johnsons-test-and-tracing-system-britain-lockdown
'We’re not highly trained – we’ve been sitting around doing nothing. This programme is not fit to bring Britain out of lockdown'

[Aroundtheworldin80moves]

160 people per person? Do people really come in to contact with that many people on a regular basis?

Unless they are on a crowded underground train or something...

(Bearing in mind, you have to be within 2m of someone or in a closed space for 15 minutes, so stuff like shopping doesn't count)

[RedToothBrush]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/sage-minutes-reveal-how-uk-advisers-reacted-to-coronavirus-crisis

It says Public Health England could cope with “five new cases a week (requiring isolation of 800 contacts)”, with potential capacity to increase to 50 new cases and 8,000 contact isolations.

Wtf.

How many new cases a week are we having? It's currently running at about 2000. That have been confirmed

I'm not going mad am I? The above figures suggest about 160 contact isolations per new case. That works out at 320,000 contact isolations per day at current rates. That's right isn't it?

How is that even going to be feasible?

This meeting concludes that “transmission is under way in the community” and that modelling suggests “the UK is 10-14 weeks from the epidemic peak if no mitigations are introduced”. It hears that the UK could have up to 10,000 cases already, and is about four to five weeks behind Italy.

This was way off the mark. An admission made just three days later by SAGE that the situation was far worse than we realised. (We ended up tracking at more like 10 days behind Italy.)

The 10th March meeting is key in that it says
There is also an acknowledgment of the looming crisis to come in care homes. “Sage advised that special policy consideration be given to care homes and various types of retirement communities.”

There was no specific policy given to care homes for weeks and weeks after this date.

On the 1st May Sage discusses the test-and-trace system and agrees “that at least 80% of contacts of an index case would need to be contacted for a system to be effective”.

^“For the test-and-trace system to be effective, isolation of contacts of individuals with Covid-19 within 48 hours was desirable.

“The aim should be to develop the capability to test index cases in less than 24 hours … It is considered essential that this testing capability is reached before the autumn/winter flu season when a large number of those reporting symptoms may not have Covid-19.”^

We know we are no where near that point and questions on this have been dodged by Johnson this week. Media need to focus on this...

On 5th May Sage says relaxing lockdown measures should not happen until new cases have dropped to a low level – not on a fixed date.

So the Government ultimately go for a fixed date...

There are lots of unanswered and somewhat disturbing questions here...

I also note the following
Preliminary results of a study indicate that “the virus decays rapidly when exposed to artificial sunlight”.

It notes some rare symptoms or complications that are emerging, including “cerebrovascular events, renal disease and systemic endothelial and organ dysfunction. Also notes longer term health problems, including “extreme tiredness and shortness of breath for months.”

So if we hadn't had the sunniest spring on record this would be loads worse.

And there's a lot more concern about long term effects than we realise.

Certainly it's very arguable that we are ready for lockdown to be relaxed and even more arguable that track and trace is for purpose. We know that its not due to be fully operational until the end of June (where are we going to be with the number of cases and contacts by that point?!) and given the government's track record on operational deadlines slipping, I'd say end of June was on the optimist side.

I don't know how anyone can read that and not be really concerned about what happens next.

[SophieB100]

Sage have released minutes of meetings, and a summary is here if any of you are interested:
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/sage-minutes-reveal-how-uk-advisers-reacted-to-coronavirus-crisis

[SudokuBook]

I suppose the scientists don’t consider the wider impact such as the economic impact as that is not their job, but the government have to. To be honest people have to take some responsibility themselves, other than going to work people can still actually choose to stay at home.

[jasjas1973]

Thank you @SophieB100

RTB Good to know we are following the scientific advice....not! Pity more SAGE scientists are not speaking up.

[RedToothBrush]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52849691
Coronavirus: Relaxing lockdown 'risky' and 'political decision'

Relaxing lockdown is a risk because levels of the coronavirus are still at "very high" levels, one of the government's top science advisers says.

Prof John Edmunds said it was a "political decision" to lift lockdown and that "many" scientists would wait.

The warning comes as Sage, the scientists advising government, publish details of their confidential meetings.

One meeting on 23 April estimated there would be only 1,000 cases per day by mid-May.

Instead, estimates by the Office for National Statistics suggest there are currently 8,000 cases per day in England alone. Those figures don't include cases in care homes or hospitals

"Many of us would prefer to see the incidence down to lower levels before we relax measures," Prof Edmunds, from the London School of Tropical Hygiene and Medicine, said.

Newly-published Sage documents also warned of the dangers of having high numbers of cases.

They say this would "give little time to re-impose more stringent measures" if the infection rate (the R-number) started to increase.

And

The documents also show that only half of people are isolating for seven days when they become sick.

This comes as testing and contact tracing will require anyone who comes into close contact with an infected person to isolate for 14 days, even if they do not become sick

Behavioural scientists advising government "strongly recommend" monitoring how well people were keeping to the rules.

Sage documents showed keeping the R number below one (the point at which the epidemic starts to grow again) would require 80% of contacts to be found within 48 hours.

The scientists agreed that social distancing would need to be maintained even if test and trace was effective.

However, the government's testing tsar said it would be "very difficult" to get the results of home tests in less than 48 hours, never mind find their contacts. Tests at drive-through centres are faster.

[SophieB100]

Here's a copy and paste from the Gov website about track and trace - point 2 says that your household doesn't need to isolate with you.
@jasjas1973
Part 2: if you are contacted by the NHS test and trace service because you have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive for coronavirus
alert: you will be alerted by the NHS test and trace service if you have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive for coronavirus. The alert will usually come by text, email or phone call. You should then log on to the NHS test and trace website, which is normally the easiest way for you and the service to communicate with each other – but, if not, a trained call handler will talk you through what you must do. Under-18s will get a phone call and a parent or guardian will be asked to give permission for the call to continue

isolate: you will be told to begin self-isolation for 14 days from your last contact with the person who has tested positive. It’s really important to do this even if you don’t feel unwell because, if you have been infected, you could become infectious to others at any point up to 14 days. Your household doesn’t need to self-isolate with you, if you do not have symptoms, but they must take extra care to follow the guidance on social distancing and handwashing and avoid contact with you at home

[jasjas1973]

So RTB, the process we have used for decades has been removed and replaced with a totally new and unproven way of working? plus of course Serco make a profit :( AND it isn't even up and running yet!!!

No wonder we have such a super high death and daily infection rate.

[jasjas1973]

Surely by default anyone who tests positive or has been in contact with someone who has, the family they live with would have been in close proximity with them too? so will have to isolate or what is the point of TnT ?

Or have i missed something?

[RedToothBrush]

I didn't realise that the TnT scheme is part run by Serco, stores data for 20years, bypasses GP's and has no local public health involvement

There's been an ongoing problem with local authorities / national assemblies being denied access to crucial information because its in private company hands which is hampering their ability to deal with the crisis because they lack important information to make decisions with.

[SophieB100]

@peoplepleaser1
What I don't understand about your post, is that the tracer told her and her family to isolate.
This goes against the advice, both repeated by Johnson and Hancock yesterday.
If you are traced because you've been in close contact with a positive case, within 2 metres, you isolate and get a test. BUT, (and here's what I don't get) your family, or the people you live with don't have to isolate as well, they can continue until normal, unless your test comes back positive. So her mum and dad, according to Johnson and Hancock were fine to carry on as normal. So I'm surprised the tracer told them to isolate too?
And a group in a hot tub! Was it in Durham?

[jasjas1973]

I didn't realise that the TnT scheme is part run by Serco, stores data for 20years, bypasses GP's and has no local public health involvement AND wont be up and running until end of June and doubtless that date will slip too... remarkable considering there are schemes out there, up and running, complete with an app too.

But perhaps its biggest problem is that with 1000s of new daily infections and with most restrictions going in the next few weeks, how on earth can it work? the numbers to be tracked down will overwhelm the system.

[peoplepleaser1]

@Inniu I don't have all the details but she admitted she had been asked to isolate yesterday along with her household (parents) but she and her mum both went to work for a night shift. The daughter in a care home, the mum in a supermarket.

[Inniu]

Did she actually get a call from a tracer asking her to isolate?
If so it has actually worked reasonably quickly. If within a week someone was referred for a test, got the test, got the results and their contacts were traced
48 hours for all that is better but given that the UK is only starting now within a week is promising.

Now to get people to actually isolate.

[Aroundtheworldin80moves]

@peoplepleaser1 she doesn't develop CV then, or was at least non infectious on this shift.

Must be a huge worry for the care home.