Longer term. Is anyone else wondering what will happen?

[Fluffyglitterystuff]

I think we all know it's entirely possible that there'll never be a vaccine. Long term it's possible it will mutate into something less deadly but no guarantees of anything.

I was watching a programme last night and they were saying how there isn't much wiggle room with R, so it's just a trade off. If we want to go back to work/school, have shops open, we won't be able to see family.

When I go out now it's clear that a lot of people have just given up. Lots of large groups congregating, teenagers playing out together. I know of several people/neighbours who are visiting family. I worry that we are just going to see another huge spike in cases.

[leckford]

I think we need to know who has had it with few problems and recovered. I have had it and I am arranging for a test £90 husband has it too although he should be high risk he just had the red eyes which clear up with antibiotics. Which is one of the Symptoms.

The NHS needs to return to normal, tests for cancer etc and treatment or ten of thousands mor will die

[LudaMusser]

I honestly can't ever see us getting to zero new cases like Germany have done on one day recently

I too see large groups of youths riding around on bikes on congregating in the local park. I think lockdown has been to lax whereas other countries have gone hard from day one

The longer the lockdown goes on in England I just think it will be taken less seriously. People have had enough

The government can't furlough people forever and people aren't following the rules. At some point shops etc will have to reopen as if they don't the bigger picture is mass unemployment. As an economy we need to start spending again, and soon

I think it will get to the point eventually where it's like if you catch it then so be it, I'll take my chances, I'm healthy I think I'll survive

[lynsey91]

@Drivingdownthe101 the numbers are not falling that fast though are they?

There have been no cases in my area so they were lucky but things could have been very different

I very much doubt they will continue to fall. Much more likely to rise now that so many people are just ignoring advice and guidelines.

[Drivingdownthe101]

Lots of people didn't abide by the rules from the beginning anyway. Many of my neighbours didn't having visitors who didn't stay 2 metres away from them etc. Neighbour who was meant to be self isolating because his child showed symptoms went to the local supermarket at least twice to my knowledge despite having family who live within walking distance (5 mins if that) and can all drive

And despite that, numbers are still falling.

[ColouringPencils]

Just occasionally it hits you the things that might no longer seem a great idea, even when you can do them. My favourite place is a tiny little board game cafe where the tables are packed tightly together and groups gather to play the cafe's lovely collection of games. Who is going to want to do that any time soon?

[ColouringPencils]

I am interested in what might happen long-term to institutions like universities and schools.

Will online learning or smaller classes become the norm? Will we make different choices about how we holiday, shop, entertain ourselves? My son said yesterday that when we come out of lockdown he can't wait to go to his favourite buffet restaurant (a massive city centre one) and I thought .

I know it is awful and very sad, but it is also an interesting time and some things may happen for the better (although I fear many for the worse).

[okiedokieme]

What will happen if there's not a vaccine is that we will learn to live with it, alas some vulnerable people who have shielded will get sick and perhaps die but at some point herd immunity will mean numbers are far lower and could peter out. Numbers are dropping and some projections predict it's already struggling to find enough hosts in some areas

[MarginalGain]

You actually think that the government doesn't need broad public support to enforce a lockdown?

Who's going to enforce it without an army of curtain twitchers?

[MarginalGain]

I'm not being ridiculous. What is your plan for keeping the country running if millions are off sick at once? If there are no healthcare beds so the death rate escalates to 5-10% or more and there is no A&E capacity for other trauma? Because that is what we would be facing. If and only if exponential growth comes back.

There's no likely worse case scenario that features absenteeism anything close to lockdown, you realise that right?

Where are you getting your data from? The NHS has doubled (maybe trebled?) it's ICU capacity, why are you worried about beds?

[Eskarina1]

I'm not being ridiculous. What is your plan for keeping the country running if millions are off sick at once? If there are no healthcare beds so the death rate escalates to 5-10% or more and there is no A&E capacity for other trauma? Because that is what we would be facing. If and only if exponential growth comes back.

[leckford]

We both had it, I am paying to have the test. People with cancer and other serious illnesses are not able to get treatment. This means millions of people are affected.

[PicsInRed]

On mumsnet most people seem to think that the economy will be fucked for generations to come

The Chancellor himself says that we're heading into the worst recession ever.

Worst ever.

Yes, we're fucked.

[MarginalGain]

If another lockdown is needed, which is a big if, they don't need our consent.

Of course they do, don't be ridiculous.

[EducatingArti]

I think people are starting to disregard lockdown because of the mixed messages from the government. I think we should have stayed with the first rules until the test, track and trace is fully operational and then started to lift things. That way cases would be even lower and so would the R value and we would be in a much better position to move forward.

[Fluffyglitterystuff]

Eskarina I highly doubt that.

There aren't enough police to enforce.

The government would need people to cooperate for it to be effective.

I think that if the government did announce another lockdown, and yes it is a big if. I doubt they'd get the compliance that they have first time round.

[lynsey91]

Yes lots of people are just giving up on social distancing, safe measures etc and I think they are quite frankly stupid.

Lots of people didn't abide by the rules from the beginning anyway. Many of my neighbours didn't having visitors who didn't stay 2 metres away from them etc. Neighbour who was meant to be self isolating because his child showed symptoms went to the local supermarket at least twice to my knowledge despite having family who live within walking distance (5 mins if that) and can all drive.

Me and DH have abided by the rules. I have been out 3 times. We intend to keep only going out for food shopping and as we are now getting click & collect we no longer have to go into a supermarket which is great.

I think, but hope I am wrong, that there is going to be a huge second wave. People know the risks but seem willing to take them. I just hope the NHS can cope. I feel sorry for all the NHS staff who have been through an horrendous time and are now going to face it again if not worse just because of selfish idiots

[Eskarina1]

If another lockdown is needed, which is a big if, they don't need our consent. They won't just say "fuck it" no one fancies a lock down so we'll keep going while vital services (police, health, fire, schools, food, energy and everything else) fails because millions are ill at once. They'll do a Spainish style lockdown and enforce it.

[Puzzledandpissedoff]

I feel that if we did have another spike, people wouldn't accept another lockdown

I'm quite certain most wouldn't, so if there IS another major spike (rather than a few scattered cases) they'll probably do what should have been done in the first place ... shield the genuinely vulnerable and leave everyone else to use their common sense

[AuldAlliance]

But even in the highest risk groups, most people survive.
They do if they have access to appropriate healthcare. Which means if hospitals are not overwhelmed. That was the point of lockdown - reducing the number of simultaneous cases to allow healthcare systems to deal with them and thus allow "most people" to survive.

[MarginalGain]

On mumsnet most people seem to think that the economy will be fucked for generations to come, our children will all become agoraphobic and obsessive-compulsive, suicide rates will soar and we will be irrevocably damaged

Let’s just wait and see what happens when Sunak inevitably releases his emergency budget. I really hope I’m overreacting as you seem to think some are but I fear I am not.

[Inkpaperstars]

This is why we didnt go into lockdown earlier, the time needed to be just right in terms of the peak, because people wont do it for long.

I don't understand this, because the peak is an artificially created one and so its timing is influenced by when we lockdown, not the other way round.

[Mynydd]

On mumsnet most people seem to think that the economy will be fucked for generations to come, our children will all become agoraphobic and obsessive-compulsive, suicide rates will soar and we will be irrevocably damaged.

I think we will get on board with masks and track, trace and quarantine, R rates will fall, successful treatments will continue to emerge, a vaccine may be introduced and we will survive. We will also survive the recession, as societies generally do.

[Eskarina1]

I think long term if there was no vaccine, no immunity and no effective treatment a really strong track and trace system, quarantine and some behavioural changes would allow a return to some form of normality.

I really don't think the government are going to be accused of overreacting. This is the 4th potential pandemic of my working life (20ish years) and the first one to get this reaction. I was involved in the local nhs planning for swine flu. The worst case isnt death rate, it's numbers ill at once. Lots of talk about how 20% of people being off sick at once would decimate essential services. That is what exponential growth means. It's not a risk the government could take. There is plenty to blame them for, but once it reached the stage it did they had no choice.

[mumlurker]

I am young and healthy - early thirties, no underlying health conditions, very active. I, like thousands of people, have not been hospitalised (one visit from the paramedics eight weeks in after collapsing at home) but have been bedridden for ten weeks. I have heart palpitations, am breathless all the time, and have all sorts of nerve damage. I have no idea when I will start to get better, if I get better at all. The death rates are not the only metric of how foul this virus is.