Kerala, a state of 35 million, has only had 4 deaths? Why couldn't we have done the same?

[Destinysdaughter]

For those of you praising Boris and the Government for their handling of this crisis, please read this. Kerala, a state in India has only had 4 deaths! Lead by a woman, she became aware of the impending crisis and took immediate action. Can anyone tell me why the UK couldn't have done this?

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/the-coronavirus-slayer-how-keralas-rock-star-health-minister-helped-save-it-from-covid-19

Australia have had very low death rates though, less than 100 isn't it?

Much as I generally respect the Guardian fact checking, and maybe Kerala has done well, but.... has anyone here actually travelled in Kerala? Because I have.

It's a popular state for tourism. As a result, the demands of the tourist industry for power means that local people go without power in their towns and villages on a daily basis to ensure that hotels etc, don't. The price of a sack of rice last time I was there had risen to the equivalent of £1 a sack because they could demand those prices from the tourist trade - meanwhile local people couldn't afford the price of their most basic staple.

Alcohol consumption is the highest per capita rate in India, despite being taxed highly and the state having a range of "dry" regulations - the consumption of illegally produced, and often dangerous, alcohol is commonplace. And whilst poverty has been reducing in real terms faster than elsewhere in India, there is still widespread poverty and consumption inequality (how much people can afford to spend in things) is the highest in India.

It's a wonderful place, the people are lovely, but don't assume that because they might have managed things better (and in terms of the UK it's hard to imagine how they could have done it worse) that everything in the garden is rosy. Because it will be a blessing in Coronavirus passes them by (and it may not have yet) - the levels of poverty and malnutrition etc mean that it would run through communities in a way that we cannot imagine.

Kerala is like other countries that have had previous epidemics. They have learned from previous experience and have very good responses / procedures in both government and population.

In an ideal world we, the rest off the world, would have learned that lesson from them... but we didn't!

Do you think the people of Kerala were on half term skiiing holidays in expensive European resorts? Were they at football matches between big international teams? Were they at businesses conferences in financial capitals?

The answer to these questions is no. And it's the same for most African nations, and Australians and Kiwis. It's the reason the wealthiest European nations have been hit hardest; it wasn't just the odd case here and there sneaking in, it was whole families and flights packed with virus ridden commuters and holidaymakers.

Mystery solved.

Alphajuliet, no they didn't have returners from Italian ski resorts, but if you'd read the article you'd know that they did have thousands of migrant workers returning from the gulf states.

Not all travel is by wealthy european skiers.

completely different demographics!

fascinating to read the boris-excusers scrabbling around for their next excuse.

The problem with that statement @Helmet is that includes those of us who are just being pragmatic.

Could it be because they live under totalitarian regimes who can control movements in a way that UK governments can only dream of? Or because people don't travel as much? Or they are a lot more compliant to rules? Or because their lifestyles are different? Or they have such poor life expectancy that they don't live to old ages? Or because their natal mortality is poor that only the really healthy survive? Or because such regimes don't report truthfully?

It is far from being a simple comparison.

Black and minority ethnic groups are at greater risk in the U.K.

Indians living in India are not a minority ethnic group.

I’m not trying to defend the U.K government’s handling of the pandemic in any way, but you really cannot compare a developed country with an elderly population with a state in a developing country with a much, much younger population.

Comparing the U.K. with Germany, on the other hand, is valid, and reflects very badly on us.

Not even then really. Germany has a manufacturing base that includes the chemicals needed for testing. That made a big difference initially, they could build an entirely different strategy based on the availability of tests.

The U.K. government could have done far more in Jan & Feb to build up testing & tracing capacity but, distracted by Brexit and Johnson’s chaotic private life they did absolutely nothing until it was far too late and we are suffering the consequences of their negligence.

The U.K. government could have done far more in Jan & Feb to build up testing & tracing capacity but, distracted by Brexit and Johnson’s chaotic private life they did absolutely nothing until it was far too late and we are suffering the consequences of their negligence.

And it's still going on...still no quarantines at airports yet, bloody Boris encouraging people to return to work but omitting to mention the wearing of face coverings, not enough testing, no tracking and tracing etc, etc....

WHOs advice sheets published in October2019 are very different to the Hollywoodesque broadcast of Test Test Test in mid February. They did a full turnaround on nearly every part of the advice.
They were slow to announce pandemic. They dithered about and were wholly unconvincing with their initial briefings.

Jaxhog FFS I've been to Kerala and it is not, as you state, a "totalitarian regime"... I'm just
incredulous at how many pp are wanting to excuse this government's response which has been so poor compared to many so called undeveloped countries!

Well, I still think hydroxychloroquine is an effective cure (despite being buried in the media) and they seem to be using it in kerala:

timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kochi/with-hydroxychloroquine-in-favour-as-a-cure-govt-firm-eyes-production-line/articleshow/75107400.cms

www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2020/apr/27/despite-risks-nearly-5000-health-workers-take-anti-malarial-drug-hydroxychloroquine-2135717.html

or, if not a magic bullet, at least it deserves more investigation and awareness than it is getting in the (western?) media

economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/pharmaceuticals/four-drug-mix-for-covid-19-can-work-wonders-say-kerala-doctors/articleshow/75100976.cms?from=mdr

That weather / sun train of thought doesn’t work for Iran though does it?

Northern Iran - which is where most Iranians live - is pretty cold in winter, which is when the virus took hold.

@jhj67, I think there is still something in hydroxychloroquine in combination with a specific antibiotic but it’s not a magic bullet because it causes cardiac arrhythmia. Given the profile of our most vulnerable to covid a lot of them are risking being killed off by the potential cure. Not to mention that covid has been found to be affecting hearts (very close to the lungs and also full of ACE2 receptors from what I understand).

There are other drugs that look promising and have a wider population who can take them without risking huge side effects.

oralengineer advice sheets for what? There weren't any reported cases of this virus in October, let alone a test. Got a link for those screenshots? It would be good to see the context.

They were slow to announce pandemic. They dithered about and were wholly unconvincing with their initial briefings.

WHO timeline here:

www.who.int/news-room/detail/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

'Pandemic' isn't a thing, it's just a rhetorical word.

WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30 when, outside of China, there were 82 cases and no deaths. This is the highest level alert they can give. It's technical language for 'pandemic'.

On January 30 we had 0 confirmed cases and 0 deaths.

Some countries continued to whinge at them to say 'pandemic' and they resisted for a while. They said they were concerned that calling it a 'pandemic' would lead to countries giving up on containment measures like testing and isolating cases and tracing and quarantining contacts.

They gave in on March 11 because they were so concerned by the lack of action from some countries with rapidly escalating levels of infection. They used the word despite its lack of technical meaning in an attempt to get certain countries ('You know who you are') to take it seriously. Because apparently 'Public Health Emergency of International Concern' doesn't sound very serious

By March 11 we had 456 confirmed cases and 9 deaths. We had just decided that all this testing and contact tracing was a bit too hard so we'd stop doing it. We'd just settle for 'flattening the curve and delaying the peak'. Same amount of death and serious illness, just more slowly.

March 12, Boris tells us 'many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time' and Vallance starts talking about herd immunity.

www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-12-march-2020

www.ft.com/content/38a81588-6508-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

So WHO were right the first time. Declaring a 'pandemic' just led to our government giving up.

Kerala had the exact same amount of time and warning as we did. They had their first case 4 days before us but they put systems in place so they were ready for it and they have relentlessly stayed on top of it.

We had plenty of time and plenty of warning, we just fucked it up. Jenny Harries said we didn't need to follow WHO advice because it was for low and middle income countries.

Age “ The U.K. government could have done far more in Jan & Feb to build up testing & tracing capacity but, distracted by Brexit and Johnson’s chaotic private life they did absolutely nothing until it was far too late and we are suffering the consequences of their negligence”

Or...if you look at Matt Hancock’s Wiki page

“ On 31 January 2020, COVID-19 was confirmed to have spread to the UK, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hancock said the government was considering "some quite significant actions that would have social and economic disruption”

I think they have used this as an excuse to control behaviour, see what people will put up with, destroy the NHS while pretending to save it - and not even bother testing hospital discharge patients going to care homes.

Kerala is a really unique place socio-politically, very unlike the rest of India. They have a very community focused socialist style government - communities work together on, there is incredibly high levels of literacy and girls’ education, they have really excellent success in a lot of areas of public health where the rest of India struggles. So it’s on one hand not surprising: if there was going to be a part of India that would tackle this sensibly, it’s Kerala. It’s also fairly rural and probably has less social inequality than other areas.

Realistically though, because it’s rural, there will absolutely have been more than 4 deaths. They just won’t have been officially recorded. This will be the case for all of India (I used to live there). Even in normal circumstances, we had people dying (I worked for a health clinic) and I can’t imagine the government noticed or cared about those deaths. I can’t imagine it would be different now.

One thing Kerala did do was to highlight, track and trace a large cluster outbreak from a religious event - South Korea did the same with a Christian religious group for balance - I really can't see the UK government going down that route - fraught with problems.

www.ndtv.com/kerala-news/coronavirus-over-300-from-kerala-attended-islamic-sect-event-in-delhi-nizamuddin-tracing-intensified-2204197

Jaxhog FFS I've been to Kerala and it is not, as you state, a "totalitarian regime"... I'm just
incredulous at how many pp are wanting to excuse this government's response which has been so poor compared to many so called undeveloped countries!
I am not seeing anyone defending the UK government. I am seeing a lot of people quite rightly pointing out that comparisons are nowhere near like for like, and it is disingenuous to pretend otherwise. If you want to criticise the UK government there is plenty of valid critique to offer, but you do that criticism a disservice trying to make comparisons where there are none.

And when you went to Kerala, was it as a tourist? Contributing to the wealth inequality that exists? How much did you actually learn about Keralans? How many poor towns and villages did you visit? Did you go into schools and health clinics? Do you actually know how people live, or did you not get past the beach / houseboat? Have you actually lived there?

And Kerala is not a country. It's a state. Of India.