Surely a vaccine may never happen?

[tangochutney]

I keep hearing family/friends saying stuff along the lines of ‘well until they sort out the vaccine’ but I was thinking of all the diseases that have been around forever that they’ve not managed to vaccinate. I’m sure I read they’ve been working on making a vaccination for chlamydia for 50 years with zero success plus so so many other infections and viruses- surely they can’t just work on it for a while and magic one up in a certain timeframe like people seem to think.

[Bluntness100]

Chris witty and Patrick valence both said tonight they would be very surprised if we didn’t find a therapy (cure) or vaccine in the near future, they said trails were going well, there was no guarantees but they both thought we would have one or the other soon.

[Hearhoovesthinkzebras]

But we've already developed one which is in human trials. Of course, we don't yet know it's effective

Well, when they announce that it's safe, effective, has passed clinical trials, they know the dose then I'll believe it. Right now, they've vaccinated two people haven't they? They don't know if it even works, let alone the dosage, how effective it is, side effects, whether it will work for everyone.

When they have those results available then I shall believe it.

[Hearhoovesthinkzebras]

Chris witty and Patrick valence both said tonight they would be very surprised if we didn’t find a therapy (cure) or vaccine in the near future,

Yes, operative words there a treatment OR a vaccine - drug treatments are looking very promising. I believe the drs that are saying a treatment will be available long before a vaccine.

[NamesNamesSoManyNames]

Several hundred people have had it. (www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/oxford-university-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-update/)

As I said, we don't yet yet if it's effective. I also personally think September is an ambitious target. I was replying to your claim that no vaccine can be developed in less than 4 years, which is clearly no longer true. It's been developed, and is now in human trials.

[tobee]

"Right now, they've vaccinated two people haven't they?"

I refer you to my previous post.

[Bluntness100]

Yes they didn’t say it outright but it did seem they thought a cure was more likely than a vaccine in the short term.

The vaccine they seemed a bit more hesitant on, the cure though I suspect there is a lot more success being seen in trials than we know.

We will know soon enough with the cases versus death figures.

[Sunshinegirl82]

No, they’ve vaccinated several hundred people. They expect to have initial results on efficacy next month.

The Oxford vaccine is already being mass produced so I’m guessing they’re at least 50/50 on it working out or it seems a bit of a punt.

Oxford started work on this on January (and already had the technology sitting ready to go) so they haven’t had to start completely from scratch.

There is also a German vaccine in human trials and a Chinese vaccine (and possibly an American one) Others to follow shortly.

[Hearhoovesthinkzebras]

Of course the four years still holds true. Until they know this vaccine is actually effective it hasn't been developed has it? If it fails then it hasn't been developed.

[tangochutney]

With human trials aren’t there four or five phases to go through? I’m sure I’ve read in the past that certain vaccines have been developed for an illness, the first couple of phases have looked promising but then kind of proved not so effective at the next stage and been discontinued. I think it’s just the way some people say it so casually like they can just whip up a vaccine when it’s actually pretty complicated and not guaranteed. I’m glad to hear they are positive though and really hope there will be good progress.

[Sunshinegirl82]

I think a drug treatment is very likely too. Last I read those running the RECOVERY trial hoped to have some conclusion on those drugs being trialed one the next month or so.

[RoosterPie]

I believe one will be found and I think the oxford one looks promising (they’ve got the million doses funded so the pharma company obviously don’t think they’re talking shit because they’ve put their money where their mouth is).

However there are no guarantees and even if oxford one does work, which is the best case scenario, a million doses is nothing and we won’t see most of the country vaccinated this year.

So I agree that all the people who think we shouldn’t go back to work or re-open schools etc till there’s a vaccine are not living in the real world. It’s shit but unless shielding or vulnerable, we will have to take our chances with the virus. I’m a bit sick of people saying “I’m not doing x, y or z UNTIL I KNOW IT IS SAFE” because it just isn’t realistic. The government has let people believe the lockdown will stop them getting the virus whereas that was never the point.

[Hearhoovesthinkzebras]

Bluntness100

But I've already said that. I said at the start of this thread, and in other threads, that it's widely accepted that a treatment (not a cure) will be found before a vaccine. I'm not disputing that. That is what I believe.

They won't have a vaccine available by this autumn.

[Sunshinegirl82]

If you mean they won’t have a vaccine that is available to vaccinate the population at large I would agree. Oxford are hoping for emergency use licensing in October I believe, all being well.

Likely to be next year at the earliest before any mass vaccinating takes place so we can’t remain on hold waiting for that. Chris Whitty and Patrick Valance have consistently said 12-18 months at the earliest. Oxford started in January so that would about fit with that timeline.

[NamesNamesSoManyNames]

But I've already said that. I said at the start of this thread, and in other threads, that it's widely accepted that a treatment (not a cure) will be found before a vaccine. I'm not disputing that. That is what I believe

Feelings are not facts, although a lot of people think they are.
Thing is, nobody knows anything yet. Even the people doing the medical trails, if they see an improvement, have to go through a long process to make sure it's the medication rather than other factors causing the improvement.
Either way, we can all agree that either a treatment or a vaccine- whichever happens first- would be fantastic.

[NamesNamesSoManyNames]

I wonder how they will roll a vaccine out (if one is developed). Vulnerable people? Key-workers? It will take a long time to be able to vaccinate enough people to have any kind of herd immunity.

[tangochutney]

Although I’ve just read an article that brings up a positive that I hadn’t thought about- all the research into corona could also bring to light new information and ideas about how to treat other illnesses, fingers crossed there could be also be some sort of progress or breakthrough from all the this about other diseases too...

[Hearhoovesthinkzebras]

Sunshinegirl82

I don't think they will have found the successful vaccine by next year, let alone mass produced it. I think, having listened to drs involved in vaccine development, that it's a long way off. You carry on believing your timeline though if that's what you want.

Time will tell.

[Sunshinegirl82]

Yeah, I will! Much prefer my time line!

[ChardonnaysPetDragon]

I don't care who they are. Everyone knows that a vaccine will not be here by autumn.

I’m honoured to be on the same thread as someone who clearly must be an expert in the field, because otherwise they wouldn’t be so certain in their views.

[Hearhoovesthinkzebras]

Yeah, I will! Much prefer my time line!

Great. If only wishful thinking actually worked.

[ClimbDad]

Looking at how this virus infects cells (it can do so in multiple ways not just via ACE2 receptors) and looking at possible persistence in the testes and central nervous system, both sites with privileged immunity, I think a vaccine is unlikely without a huge shift in technology which could take years.

[Sunshinegirl82]

Do you think my positivity might somehow damage the quest for a vaccine? Or the fight against the virus generally? Does unrelenting negativity on the subject of vaccines somehow help the cause?

It might not work out, no guarantees. But it might and it it does it will be fantastic.

[cadburyegg]

I agree that there is bound to be a vaccine eventually but people seem to think that when it is available it will be rolled out to everyone immediately! Of course it won’t. It will be made available to those very clinically vulnerable, then the over 70s... etc. In fact, as a 32 year old healthy woman, I am not expecting to ever receive it for free

[feelingverylazytoday]

I don't care who they are
And nobody cares if you care or not.

[1300cakes]

I've been thinking this as well, yes there might be a vaccine or but there very well might not be, it's far from a guarantee. There have been plenty of diseases people have worked on vaccines for decades with no results. Some things aren't possible with our current technology and knowledge.

The other aspect to this is, many people seem to think it's a case of a scientist looking up from their microscope shouting "eureka!", the vaccine is found and the next day everything is back to normal. No, that's just the beginning. It then has to be manufactured (7 billion doses of it!), distributed and administered (it was hard getting a GP appointment before this, imagine trying to get one when every other person in the country needs one). It will have to go to the vulnerable/shielded first, health care workers, and so on down the list. If won't be available for the "ordinary person" for quite some time.