Surely a vaccine may never happen?

[tangochutney]

I keep hearing family/friends saying stuff along the lines of ‘well until they sort out the vaccine’ but I was thinking of all the diseases that have been around forever that they’ve not managed to vaccinate. I’m sure I read they’ve been working on making a vaccination for chlamydia for 50 years with zero success plus so so many other infections and viruses- surely they can’t just work on it for a while and magic one up in a certain timeframe like people seem to think.

[tobee]

In the many other threads on this topic it has been stated scientists tend to be very cautious.

There are many in development around the world. I'm not just depending on Oxford.

[tobee]

If it's sorted by October (big if, of course) I have in my head that people will be getting the first vaccinations at Christmas/early next year at best. So, personally, that's what I'm factoring in. Which would still be great.

As opposed to pp saying it'll be 4 - 6 years at the very best! I don't see why those thoughts are any more the way to think than later this year.

Also, talking of vested interest, some pp equally sound like they have a vested interest in treatment Instead.

[MinteeFresh]

And the poster that did mention Oxford/October was talking about the licence maybe being ready to be granted by then - i.e a good step forward in the long process. Not that the vaccine would be ready for mass innocculation by then.

[Sunshinegirl82]

You are anticipating a date later than October? So you are anticipating a date. A non-specific date but a date.

I’m quite happy to continue believing in the possibility. I think realistic but hopeful probably isn’t too terrible a place to be right now.

You are fixed in your thinking. I am not. It is what it is.

[MinteeFresh]

Why are you obsessed with October? I don't think anyone on this thread has said a vaccine will definitely be ready by October (of course it won't. It might have been developed by then but it won't be through the testingt/manufacturing process). People have responded to the original thread post which is: Surely a vaccine may never happen?

People are responding to the NEVER bit - not saying it will be available in October? Nobody knows how long it will take but it is probably not going to be NEVER.

[Hearhoovesthinkzebras]

It will absolutely not be available by October. Not one independent scientist that I've heard speak has agreed that this is a possibility. The only people claiming it are those with a vested interest in this study.

I don't know when it will be available so I don't know how you can say "it might be ready sooner than I anticipate" because I'm not anticipating any particular date.

I could sit her and say that I'm.optimistic that I will run the marathon next month - it's meaningless because there's not a snowball in hells chance I can do it.

I'm listening to the scientists who are speaking realistically about the hurdles that are yet to come and none of them are indicating that this will be ready by October, even for the vulnerable and shielded (who are likely to be the mostly difficult group to develop for because of poor immune response in the elderly and other conditions that might affect the immune response)

I'm not sure what good it does giving people false hope but if you want to believe it then have at it. It doesn't affect me if you want to engage in wishful thinking. I'm basing my life and decisions in reality though.

[Sunshinegirl82]

So you are unable or unwilling to accept that it’s possible it will be ready sooner than you anticipate. Got it.

It’s not “what I want to believe” it is A POSSIBILITY. That’s all. It might work out and that would be fantastic. I’m really hopeful that it will because it would mean those that are older and shielded are in with a chance of resuming something akin to normal life sooner than they might otherwise. I really hope that happens for them.

It might not obviously, having the initial stages up and running by the end of the year is ambitious and might not be achievable. We will have to wait and see.

Here’s the thing, neither of us know for definite. Difference is that I accept it might take longer (but hope for sooner). You are convinced it will take longer and are fixed on that view to the exclusion of all others.

I maintain it makes no practical difference to what we do. We should plan for the worst case scenario (and act accordingly).

[Hearhoovesthinkzebras]

Yes, I know it's the same group of people - I am able to read and to comprehend.

The fact that the chief exec of a pharmaceutical company is talking the research up is not proof that the study is as advanced as you seem to want to believe. I'll take the word of a scientist over the word of a CEO. Companies are looking to attract funding and higher share prices. Of course they want to raise the profile of their company.

[Sunshinegirl82]

It’s the same group of people! The podcast is interesting as an overview of how they are developing the vaccine. The timeline has been put forward alongside that as an ambition. Two discussions about the same project.

I’ve been very clear throughout that it is a possibility only. In contrast you seem unable to accept even the possibility that things might move more quickly than you anticipate.

[Hearhoovesthinkzebras]

So, you post a podcast, which clearly you think supports your argument. The scientist that is running the study clearly explains the hurdles that they need to cross and that he cannot give a timeline and yet you are still persisting with your argument that October is realistic?

[Sunshinegirl82]

Here is the chief exec of the pharma company partnered with the Oxford group confirming the October timeline. He describes it as an “ambitious goal” but it’s what they are aiming for.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-52483359

Obviously it’s by no means a given but neither is it an impossibility.

[Hearhoovesthinkzebras]

Sunshinegirl82

In that podcast he didn't say anything about any doses being ready by September or October. He clearly said that they need to test the efficacy of the vaccine which is difficult at the moment and will take time and he couldn't tell the interviewer how long that would take - that's the scientist running the Oxford trial.

I'm hopeful they will develop a vaccine. I'm sure they will eventually. What I think is irresponsible is the number of people proclaiming that it will happen by October.

[MinteeFresh]

The podcast Sunshine linked to below is a very good summary of the issues from the chap heading up the Oxford program. I'd say he falls into the "cautiously optimistic" camp too. He does highlight why it will take time but, as people have said, more for procedural/epidemiological/manufacturing reasons rather than fundamental scientific ones I think.

[emmskie03]

@tangochutney

The lockdown does need to be eased as you get to a point where the ramifications of a lockdown will cause worse hardship than Covid 19. Poverty kills, it's just easier to ignore than Covid. Dedicating hospital's to Covid means other things aren't being diagnosed and treated. We can't lockdown forever, we need to find a way to live with the virus until such a point that we have a vaccine or effective treatment. I'm optimistic about a vaccine. The people I see that are in related areas seem optimistic and I'm far more inclined to listen to them. It's just how long.

[Sunshinegirl82]

I think most people are saying they are hopeful, that’s all. I’ve not seen anyone on this thread say there will definitely be a vaccine ready for use in the general population in September but, Oxford have said that, if it all goes to plan, they will have a million doses and an emergency use licence in September/October. It’s a possibility not a certainty.

Obviously, it will then need to be made at scale and distributed. They are scaling up manufacturing now (and the much feared Bill Gates is working to increase manufacturing capacities) so hopefully lots of doses can be ready more quickly than is usually possible. It wouldn’t be commercially viable to put the technology in place to mass produce a vaccine your weren’t 100% sure worked under normal circumstances but it is happening here.

If it works of course, let’s all hope that it does!

[Hearhoovesthinkzebras]

What he was saying was no different to what I've been saying - he can't say when they will know if this vaccine works, because of the time taken to evaluate its efficacy when a low circulating level of infection, challenge trials are very problematic because no rescue treatment available, they might happen if certain conditions can be met but not a certainty, that they need to evaluate the level of immune response amongst different groups of people - none of that sounds like a vaccine being ready by September so not sure why those of us who have pointed this out are accused of being negative. This is the man heading the Oxford trials and he is not saying "we'll have this by the autumn" so how come some mumsnetters feel qualified to do so?

[Sunshinegirl82]

I thought this was quite interesting

www.theguardian.com/science/audio/2020/may/13/covid-19-do-we-need-more-than-one-vaccine

[1300cakes]

I don't see why people who are sceptical about a vaccine being developed in the very near future are "pessimistic, doom mongering" etc. If anything it's the opposite - people who are saying that a vaccine simply MUST and WILL be found this year because otherwise I'M NOT COMING OUT AND WE'LL ALL DIE, surely are the negative doom mongers.

I don't think a vaccine will be coming out in the next few months, but I think life can still return to normal. We will just have to put it on the list of common diseases that we don't want but sometimes do get and life goes on despite them - like cancer, flu, dementia, etc.

[Daffodil101]

Thanks Mintee. I love it when somebody directs us to the right bit of research

[ErrolTheDragon]

much of vaccine development (and drug treatments) is done on computers these days with molecular modelling

Is it? It's useful in drug discovery (including antibody therapeutics), but I wasn't aware of molecular modelling being used much in vaccine development? Other computational methods maybe.

[MarshaBradyo]

Mintee that’s interesting and I had understood some of that from previous bits and pieces from the radio and here. Good to see posts on it.

[PaddyF0dder]

@minteefresh

Thanks. That’s a fascinating post.

[MinteeFresh]

Yes, exactly, as I posted before:
and also the MERS coronavirus that caused the respiratory illness in parts of the ME. Both of these viruses had vaccine development programs, albeit not fully realised, before this happened, so there will be usable data from those studies.

And as you say, a vaccine for MERS is almost through the vaccine development cycle and is looking promising: www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200422132600.htm
Remember, much of vaccine development (and drug treatments) is done on computers these days with molecular modelling so all that software and algorithms that were developed for MERS in that program will be useful and being used in the programs for SARS CoV 2. All science builds on previously published papers and studies and I imagine many of the individual scientists will be the same or collaborating, in conjunction with pharmaceutical companies with access to all that data as well. Plus the vectors they use for vaccine development will be useful across the board now including this one (they just slot in a different bit of DNA/RNA from SARS Cov 2 or whatever virus instead of MERS CoV) and that lepfrogs you ahead in terms of human tolerance to the overall vaccine etc

So not as bleak as many were saying is my informed/educated guess. No guarantees of course but, as you say, we are not starting from scratch.

[onemorepringle]

Because some people think we should all just get on with it, tango, and how dare anyone object.

[tangochutney]

If a vaccine/treatment isn’t going to be available for some time then I just don’t understand the ‘easing lockdown’ stages? How on Earth could pubs and restaurants be allowed to open in a couple of months?