So outbreaks are only in care homes and hospitals. What am I missing?

[mayoral]

In the governments press conference yesterday they said infection rates remain high because of outbreaks in two places: care homes and hospitals. They said transmission within the community was small and well below R1.

So why can't we contain care homes and hospitals and get on with our lives now??

[Eskarina1]

For anyone struggling with exponential growth as a concept, there's a famous maths puzzle about how many times you would need to fold a piece of paper in half to reach the moon. 42. The thickness of a piece of normal A4 paper, doubled 42 times, is the equivalent thickness as the distance to the moon.

So even if there are very few cases in the community now, if everything was released it would grow very very quickly.

[Nonnymum]

Also the only reason it has stayed to spread less in the community is because of lockdown. If we come out before it has been controlled, numbers will start to spoke again and could be even worse.

[vodkaredbullgirl]

@Lemonblast as we dont have it in our home, if it ever did then yes i probably would stay there 24/7.

Don't you think that most of us are fed up with it, but we have to carry on with what we are doing.

[Nonnymum]

A large proportion of the general poulation work in those places. Should we lock them all in together ?
This if it is rife in hospitals and care homes it will inevitably also spread to the wider population. A lot of people work in ctae homes and hospitals, they will have families, go out and about in the community, do shopping etc.
If the R is high anywhere it will spread.

[Lemonblast]

But Vodka with respect, what you’re doing is not what is being suggested by a few people on this thread? You’re not being asked or expected to leave your home and your family for weeks on end to try and contain a virus that the rest of the country is a bit bored with.

[vodkaredbullgirl]

We are allowed to go home at the end of our shift, we have been given masks to wear when out and about. I do my shopping online, which has been difficult at times. When we go to work we wear outdoor clothes and shoes, take our shoes off at the door and change into different clothes. Temperatures are taking twice while at work, even the residents have theirs taken.

The only time I have had to stay at work was when we had all that snow.

[Lemonblast]

Vodkaredbull is the home providing all of your food? Do any of the staff locked down have children at home? How much time off are you getting or are you on duty 24/7? What about exercise for staff?

[vodkaredbullgirl]

We have been on lock down, no family visiting, no other healthcare staff only us carers for the past 8 weeks too. We are not accepting new residents, no residents are allowed out of the home. No hospital appointments or transfer to hospital unless it is suspected fractures. If they do the need to be tested before they come home. They are quarantined as soon as they come back.

Luckly no hospital and no cases of covid. It would be really hard if it came in. Looking after dementia residents, it would be a disaster.

[Thingybob]

Everyone has been locked down for 8 weeks so no testing needed. Before anyone else comes in they will be quarantined and tested

[Lemonblast]

Thingybob is your setting completely locked down? All staff fully locked down with residents? No deliveries? No one coming or going? Every single member of staff has been locked down for at least 14 days and tested repeatedly during that time?

[QueenofmyPrinces]

Bottom line. We need more testing. It’s how Korea dealt with it so well, admittedly they had previous practice with similar instances so knew what to do.

My worry is that testing comes with its own risks in that results are coming back negative in people who are displaying symptoms and probably do have the virus.

I question the validity and sensitivity of these tests and suspect that people with the virus will be told they can carry on as normal because the test came back negative when in reality it just didn’t detect the virus despite it being present.

As has been said, a person with symptoms might test negative one day and the positive the next day.

The test can say for definite that someone does have the virus, but they can’t say for definite that the person definitely doesn’t have it.

All the negative result can do is state that the person didn’t have the virus detected on that one day the test was carried out, or that the test wasn’t sensitive enough to pick up any small traces of the virus on that day.

I think negative results are going to provide a lot of false comfort and I see infection rates increasing because of it.

in my opinion people with symptoms should isolate regardless of what the test says.

[Thingybob]

@Derbygerbil, no need to apologise, I am no hero, as Lemonblast says I am doing what suits me, and those around me, best under the current circumstances. Regarding food, all care homes have kitchens so that's no problem.

Lemonblast, I'll say it one more time, no one is fodder. There is no risk to anyone in any care home (if it doesn't have any Covid infections) if you are able to maintain a no one in, no one out policy.

I wish a few of those making decisions had some experience or understanding of the care sector, how it operates, and the type of people that live in different settings. A policy driven by average R numbers is bloody stupid when I imagine the R number for someone infected and working in a care home to be 10 to 20 times the average.

Testing and PPE make good soundbites but will never be able to protect residents.

[MamaKarmaLlama]

Bottom line. We need more testing. It’s how Korea dealt with it so well, admittedly they had previous practice with similar instances so knew what to do.

[QueenofmyPrinces]

Very interesting Queen and shows how many well looking asymptomatic people may be spreading it out in the community too.

And we’ve been told that even if we have been in contact with a confirmed positive, we will only be swapped if we start showing symptoms.

So technically we could asymptomatic for two weeks but still be carrying the virus around with us at work...

Or we could have the virus but never show symptoms, so never get a test but still be spreading it around work...

[Inkpaperstars]

Very interesting Queen and shows how many well looking asymptomatic people may be spreading it out in the community too.

[QueenofmyPrinces]

I work in a hospital and we are testing every patient (paediatrics) and their parents if they are admitted on to a ward.

The patient/parents aren’t isolated and so until we wait for their results they are mingling with other families, the nursing staff, the medical staff, the domestics, the kitchen staff etc etc

We are seeing many results coming back positive from children who aren’t even admitted due to respiratory problems and also from parents who aren’t ill either.

Our latest positive was a 10 year old boy, who was perfectly well and only with us because he’d had a minor head injury falling off his bike.

We are finding that patients and parents are having positive results despite being completely asymptomatic.

Although all admitted babies/children and their parents are being swabbed, the nursing and medical staff still aren’t.

People think the biggest risk is the one that the patients pose to the NHS staff, yet I dread to think how many NHS staff are unknowingly carrying the virus and spreading it around all the patients and families they see....

It worries me how many people (society and NHS staff) are walking around the hospitals without even knowing they have it and how easily may be being spread.

[Lemonblast]

Thingybob I understand perfectly what you’re saying. You have made a decision that suits you, your family and your situation, presumably with the benefit of full PPE and regular testing of you, your colleagues and all residents?
To suggest that using nursing and care staff as fodder is an appropriate way of containing this virus to allow the rest of society to go back to normal is beyond unreasonable.

[Derbygerbil]

@Thingybob

Apologies, I hadn’t realised your situation. Thank you for what you are doing. The country owes you a massive debt of gratitude. Personally I think we should be paying the likes of you at least double. How are you managing for food? Are you having to cook for yourself?

[MeganBacon]

Why should key workers be locked up in their workplace so that YOU can carry on as normal !!
Just because one small area of society has to suffer does not mean we should make it a million times worse by trashing the entire economy and making sure every single person, from this generation and possibly the next too, suffers. That makes no sense at all. I do think the answer lies in protecting the vulnerable, and we need imaginative, responsible and generous thinking about how to alleviate the burden on those who do (irrespective of cost which is likely to be available if the rest of us go back to work). I have no expertise at all in that area but it would be lovely to hear from someone who does.
I think plenty of key workers, not just in the health care sector, have been locked up away from their loved ones for the duration of this just to keep things moving. These are hard times and people are making sacrifices with a view to the long term good.

[Jaxhog]

The reason that it's largely contained to care homes and hospitals, is because the rest of us are locked down! It's the best evidence that lockdown is working. If the lockdown stopped, it would be back in the community. Ye gods. Don't people get this?

[Thingybob]

I don't think you understand what I've said Lemonblast

[Thingybob]

Derbyshire, no I wouldn't be able to look after anyone's kids as I'm too busy atm living in at a care home protecting the residents here. I've already said it wouldnt be suitable for everyone and yes I do know how many care staff there are but there do not need to be so many as there are only around 400,000 residents that live in these homes. Furlough the mothers who usually work16-20 hours around the kids and allow the young ones without children or the older ones (like me) to work 60-80 hours a week.

[Lemonblast]

Thingybob LISTEN to yourself 2 weeks quarantine, a quick 4-6 weeks live in care home/hospital stint and then if they’re not dead or in ICU another 2 weeks quarantine before going home.
You SERIOUSLY believe that’s s valid option? Just so you and your family can get back to ‘normal?’

I’ve really and truly heard it all now 🙈

[Baaaahhhhh]

Just an aside, and in response to elderlies being transferred to care homes.

Mums care home was asked to take in transferees from hospital. They said no. They were asked to take in new elderly from the community, they said no. They stopped families visiting two weeks prior to lockdown. They had stocks of PPE, and still do, because, you know, you need it to deal with any and all infectious diseases. They have no cases. Lucky or well run? I do feel that many, many care homes and hospitals and trusts have handled this crises really well, with or without government help. Others less so. We only hear about the ones who haven't stepped up to the mark.

[fromlittleacorns]

An interesting bbc report here - not on quite the same issue but suggesting focusing on shielding the most vulnerable.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52543692