Is the number of cases due to population density aswell?

[Teacher12345]

I have been listening to the news and we are on track to be the worst hit country in the EU. This is partly due to a slow response by our government, but surely alot to do with our population density too which seems to be overlooked alot of the time?

I googled France, Spain and UK and France has the largest landsize, with over 65 million in population. Spain has the next biggest land size with 46 million in population and UK has the smallest land mass but the biggest population at over 66 million! So surely we were always going to be at a disadvantage?
I am not denying that after looking at spain and Italy, we should have locked down a week or two soonerand prepared better (althought they were right when they said if they did it too soon, people would give up and start ignoring rules when it mattered most) but why is this never mentioned? Does it not matter that we have half the last mass than other countries and the same population squished in living so close to each other?

[LilyPond2]

covid.joinzoe.com/data

The Covid-19 symptom tracker app which is now collecting data from over 2.5 million people in the UK is now publishing maps updated daily re estimated percentage rates of infection in 20-69 year-olds, area by area. Map suggests population density is one factor, but there are clearly other factors at play. Not all the areas with highest infection rates are the most densely populated.

When you compare country by country, government policy is clearly a much bigger factor, eg Germany has plenty of densely populated big cities, but its death rate is way lower than that of the UK.

[ElenadeClermont]

A helpful article on population density in Europe theconversation.com/think-your-country-is-crowded-these-maps-reveal-the-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-90345

[Helmetbymidnight]

Are we happy to look like the fools we are or should we at least try to defend ourselves when the data comes out?
ah i see - the plan is to pretend we have population density unlike the rest of europe- and use that to explain away our horrendous death rate. o-kay.

[AlecTrevelyan006]

Most covid cases in Holland have occurred in Amsterdam - it seems fairly consistent in most countries that biggest cities have the most cases

[Helmetbymidnight]

london is densely populated but so is berlin, amsterdam, geneva, naples etc. so i cant really see why it explains differential rates...
and yes to international transport hub but that points to the uncomfotable fact that we've still been having 9000 people in per day (until this week) and not quarenteening them- other countries didn't- the biggest factor in our high death rate seems to be slowness in lock down- but its still too early for a verdict....

[OnlyFoolsnMothers]

stickygotstuck in the U.K. we police by consent. The measures taken in other countries wouldn’t be as easily implemented here. South Africa, China, Hong Kong, India, South Korea, India- you think they have the luxury of walking out their homes and heading to the shops whenever they like? Let’s be honest no one is monitoring how often We go out, no one is shutting down whole areas once a Covid case is found (India), there isn’t a colour on your phone confirming if you can travel (China), when you fly into Heathrow you aren’t put in a hotel for two weeks under watch (Greece).
I’m not saying it’s better or worse- certainly for the numbers our civil liberty has cost us.

[AlecTrevelyan006]

population density is definitely a factor, but it's not just that - cities like London have huge numbers of people travelling in, out and around the city. London isn't just a huge city but a huge transport hub.

[stickygotstuck]

As a PP said it's not so much the size of the country but the concentration of people in population centres. So no, that's not an explanation.

More to do with the government leaving it too late, and the news saying look at Italy, the fools, we'll never get to that level of deaths. And here we are.

That and consciously prioritising the economy over people's lives. So, no, ni excuse for the government.

We are nor controllable must be the silliest thing I've heard repeated over and over. Yes we are, and extremely docile (in general).

[OnlyFoolsnMothers]

But you have to see that countries that have tackled their numbers either have stricter regulations or have more space for people not to mix.

[Alex50]

Comparing India and Uk on controlling the coronvirus though, is not a fair comparison, as one how will they test 1.4 billion people and two will they admit how many people have starved to death because of lockdown.

[OnlyFoolsnMothers]

Alex50 I’m comparing them just using as example of how densely populated countries are tackling the crisis.

[Alex50]

You can’t compare the UK to India, a lot of people will starve from lockdown long before they get coronvirus. 800 million poor live on less than £2 a day, 40 million children who are so poor they only get a meal every 2 to 3 days.

[Teacher12345]

We aren’t controllable- densely populated countries like India need stricter measures but that would never happen in the U.K.
Definitley agree to this. They did say that one reason they didn't lock down sooner was because they knew that people would flout the rules when they go fed up.

[WinterIsGone]

Apart from being on a packed tube train I wouldn't necessarily think so.
But surely the half hour (or whatever) on the tube is exactly when you'd catch it. I know whenever I've been into London, and timed it badly with the rushhour, I've always gone down with some horrid germ. I guess regulars build up resistance.

Also, air pollution is so much higher in cities, which affects the lungs.

[Teacher12345]

So if we all agree it is an issue, why is it never discussed?

It is being discussed. We're just not privy to everything that is being discussed.

I am surprised no one at these breifings has pointed it out though. The government has taken alot of stick for their poor reaction and have never tried to defend themselve by making this point.
Maybe thats to their credit, I dunno?

[OnlyFoolsnMothers]

Yes!!! I say there are two issues why the U.K. is buggered:

Population density- we have little space compared to others
We aren’t controllable- densely populated countries like India need stricter measures but that would never happen in the U.K.

[HandfulOfFlowers]

Probably why New Zealand is "doing so well". It's a lot easier to social distance when nobody else is there.

[SquishySquirmy]

Yes population density has an effect.
But it is not as some as dividing the population of Spain into the area of Spain - it depends how people are spread within the country itself.
Eg a country could have a very large amount of sparsely populated areas, but most of the population concentrated in densely populated cities. Parts of Barcelona are incredibly densely populated but much of Spain is empty.

France, Spain and the UK all have densely populated cities.

Other European countries are more densely populated than the UK (but again, it is not as simple as total population/total area).

And UK population density is of course lower than population density for just England.

[SabrinaTheTeenageBitch]

@waterdrop - haha exactly that.

Im in Sunderland, the number of cases we have is shocking and I can guarantee its density as in stupid enough to not follow the rules thats causing issues up here

[raviolidreaming]

So if we all agree it is an issue, why is it never discussed?

It is being discussed. We're just not privy to everything that is being discussed.

[planningaheadtoday]

@Waterdropwort

[Alex50]

I live in a city in the UK which is very spread out. You can go for a walk and keep metres away from people as we have so much space. It must be very difficult in London just going for a walk and keeping your distance. A lot of people live in house shares and flats, in highly populated cities, it must be so hard to self distance. Every time you touch anything in a communal area, you are more likely to catch something. I’m so glad I live where I live with lots of space around me.

[Derbygerbil]

The key factor is the extent to which people come
into contact with either other. Density of population facilitates this.

[runrunrunrunt]

So if we all agree it is an issue, why is it never discussed?
Are we happy to look like the fools we are or should we at least try to defend ourselves when the data comes out?

Defend ourselves against who? It's hardly a face saving exercise. We were fools. It's been handled exceptionally badly.

[Focalpoint]

They talk about the R-0 measure - the number is people that an infected person passes it on to. I haven't seen anything either that says this was higher in more densely populated countries that other. To actually measure it, they'd have had to be doing testing and contact tracing - which hasn't been done if testing is only in hospital and healthcare workers.

On one level, it makes sense that population density would impact but if you think about it, does an average person in London come into close contact with more people on a day to day basis that the average person in Belfast. Apart from being on a packed tube train I wouldn't necessarily think so. It's family and workmates mainly.

If you look at those charts of exponential growth, then the biggest factor has to be how high up the curve a country or region was before the lock down.