WHY do people keep saying we all need to get it...

[nellodee]

When Matt Hancock is clearly saying that we need to get cases right down, so we can move into the next stage, which is contact tracing?

From Guardian updates:

Easing lockdown depends on fall in number of new infections, says Hancock
Easing the lockdown depends on the speed at which the number of new cases of Covid-19 falls and that is as yet “unknown”, the health secretary, Matt Hancock, has said.

The number of new cases is being tracked through hospital admissions, through a new testing study in the community announced on Wednesday, and data that will be gathered from people coming forward for tests under an expansion of the programme.

However, he added that there was no prospect of easing the lockdown yet, and that cases needed to drop substantially before the next phase of isolating infected people and their contacts could be truly effective.

[Tfoot75]

Honestly the argument of I'd rather do this than die are a bit ridiculous and only apply to those shielding, as the rest of us have an extremely low chance of anything other than very mild illness/no symptoms particularly children. At no point does no school for a year balance up against my child dying.

Many children would die if there was no school for a year, vs no young children without underlying health conditions dying of covid19. I heard that 4 children have already been killed during lockdown as a result of domestic violence.

[HorseRedArrow]

How are you going to fine me? I just won’t download the app. Or I’ll leave my phone at home. This isn’t China, government can’t or won’t be able to detain people the same way. For now I’m actually very compliant with lockdown. But the idea the population is so selfless they’ll all voluntarily download the app and comply, not to lessen their risk, or even necessarily anybody’s risk (remember, this is an app that says someone you were in contact with had “symptoms” not necessarily covid.) Ridiculous. I would absolutely agree to it if the person I was meant to have contacted with actually had a positive test, until they’d had time to test me. But I don’t think that’s what is being suggested?

[CaroleFuckinBaskin]

Yes, exactly. This virus has a long lag time (incubation period) compared to other viruses too. So in the 2-3 weeks that a person is infected but asymptomatic, they will be passing the infection to many many people by touching surfaces.

The incubation period of this virus is not '2-3 weeks', it's between 2 and 14 days with the average being 5.

[cantory]

@Tfoot75 At no point did I say no children should go to school for a year. But do you really expect parents to send children to school who have been identified as being in the most vulnerable group?
And sadly on average 2 children die a week from DV/abuse. So if there really only had been 4 die during lock down, that would be less than normal.

[cantory]

Also mild symptoms means medically mild. That means you do not need to be hospitalised. It can still mean you are very ill.

[nellodee]

@HorseRedArrow I would presume that the person with symptoms would get tested. I'm also thinking if I was designing the app, I'd want it to inform people if they had had contacts who were awaiting testing, or awaiting the results. This might have an effect on your behaviour. Let's say we are trying to go back to normality using this. You might have someone who is not shielded, but vulnerable. If you knew you had been in contact with someone who was awaiting the results of their test, you may well decide to delay a visit to them, whereas if you had received no warning notifications, you may decide to risk visiting them.

[cantory]

If the app is backed up with testing I would use it. I have not seen anyone saying that is the idea?

[Thisdressneedspockets]

The incubation period of this virus is not '2-3 weeks', it's between 2 and 14 days with the average being 5.

But then many continue to be asymptomatic for the duration or have symptoms so mild that they wouldn't necessarily consider they might have covid19

At the moment, we're still being told to watch out for fevers and coughs but I know people who had aches and pains and tiredness or headaches for a week or more before a cough started.

[stairway]

I think this virus will always be in hospitals and care homes from now on. The swabs aren’t that accurate imo. It might be better to catch it whilst healthy then when vulnerable.

[cantory]

If that is the case life expectancy will be permanently reduced.

[CaroleFuckinBaskin]

But then many continue to be asymptomatic for the duration or have symptoms so mild that they wouldn't necessarily consider they might have covid19

Yes that may be, but I was just referring to what that poster had said. The average incubation period is still 5 days and its not a 'long incubation period compared to other viruses' particularly. Also, you are unlikely to be contagious from day 1 of infection.

[cantory]

But the reality is we have got other infectious diseases under control in countries with good universal health care. I see no reason why we can't do that with covid 19.
So no I don't think it will always be in care homes.
And if it was, no one would allow a relative to go into a care home because it would be a death sentence.

[CaroleFuckinBaskin]

Influenza still exists and the world keeps turning?

[Tarararara]

@century

It is in conjunction with testing. You get a yellow warning when one of your contacts reports symptoms, and a red warning if they are later confirmed positive.

www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/04/24/nhs-coronavirus-app-how-work/

[Tarararara]

Above in response to @cantory (sorry - autocorrect!)

[CayrolBaaaskin]

I think we will all have to get it or get vaccinated as if we haven’t it will just spread again. Its too widespread globally now, contact tracing etc is a short term solution only.

Also no reason to think we are not immune once we’ve had it like other viruses. The studies so far show the vast majority develop immunity in the usual way.

[cantory]

@tararara Thanks. I will download the app then.

If you compare this to influenza then you don't understand this virus at all.

[cantory]

@CayrolBaaaskin What is the usual way you develop immunity? Because there are lots of usual ways. From developing life long immunity to needing a new vaccine every year. So which way?

[stairway]

It will be like trying to keep a cold virus out of a care home. It’s never a death sentence though. Many elderly have no symptoms.

[MarginalGain]

If you compare this to influenza then you don't understand this virus at all.

Hopefully you can organise some lessons for us soon.

[CayrolBaaaskin]

@cantory - the usual way of developing anti bodies. The reason you need a new flu vaccine every year is because flu is a group of illnesses with different strains.

Some people don’t develop immunity to disease (eg chicken pox) regardless of if they’ve had the vaccine or the disease. But they are a small minority and should be protected in the main by herd immunity.

Medical science is still the same even if this is a new disease...

[cantory]

Yes and covid 19 has already mutated once, it may do so again.
The research I have read has said that not everyone develops immunity and we have no idea how many people don't.
But irregardless I do not think half a million extra deaths is acceptable.

[cantory]

@stairway Have you seen the numbers of people dying in care homes? Once it gets in a lot of people die very quickly.
And yes if you care for elderly people you do try to stop cold sores being passed on. This is easy to achieve and if a carer is passing on a cold sore then they are being negligent.

[mac12]

Once more, with feeling, for those at the back:
This is NOT influenza.

[NmChangry]

@cantory

A caveat in that what I'm about to say might come across as heartless, and I am really trying not to be.

The very sad reality is that half of all people admitted to care homes die within 18 months.

These are places people go before death. When they cannot live in their homes unsupported. My grandfather was in a care home for a few months with dementia and repeated falls while we made arrangements for him to move in with family. When the news of Coronavirus came the first people I thought of were the ones who used to sit at my grandpas table, unable to talk, moaning constantly, eating mashed up food. And I thought it would be a kindness for them to pass away rather than this alive-but-not-living they're doing now.

That is the horrible reality of many peoples lives in care homes. They have always been at risk of pneumonia, I think it's the biggest killer and why it used to be called the old man's friend.

But... IF the virus was allowed to spread enough to reach certain levels of immunity then surely this would make the risk much better to those in care homes?

In many cases these people don't respond well to the brutality of ventilation. Their only hope is to not catch it. And when you have carers, relatives, staff, visitors coming and going -- the best track and trace program isn't going to stop that in every care home.

And I think this is where the "we need to let everyone who can catch it relatively safely, catch it"... because really the only way to protect them is by having the vast majority of people entering immune.

And that can only happen by immunity through exposure or immunity through vaccination.