WHY do people keep saying we all need to get it...

[nellodee]

When Matt Hancock is clearly saying that we need to get cases right down, so we can move into the next stage, which is contact tracing?

From Guardian updates:

Easing lockdown depends on fall in number of new infections, says Hancock
Easing the lockdown depends on the speed at which the number of new cases of Covid-19 falls and that is as yet “unknown”, the health secretary, Matt Hancock, has said.

The number of new cases is being tracked through hospital admissions, through a new testing study in the community announced on Wednesday, and data that will be gathered from people coming forward for tests under an expansion of the programme.

However, he added that there was no prospect of easing the lockdown yet, and that cases needed to drop substantially before the next phase of isolating infected people and their contacts could be truly effective.

[Babdoc]

NmChangry, the bit of the virus that the body’s immune system recognises in order to achieve future immunity is not necessarily the only bit that can be used in a vaccine.
For example, a virus that regularly mutates, changing its outer protein coat, needs a new vaccine every year, if you are targeting those surface molecules. And the body wouldn’t recognise it at all. But a vaccine aimed at a more stable viral conponent could be very successful.

[Sunshinegirl82]

The WHO stated in January that there was no evidence of human to human transmission. The lack of evidence is just that, it doesn’t mean immunity isn’t possible or likely.

The Oxford vaccine is hoping to create a stronger immune response from the vaccine than would occur naturally from acquiring the virus so it’s not that straightforward.

[Mustbetimeforachange]

WHO say that there is no evidence of immunity following infection
www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19

[NmChangry]

@Babdoc And we have no reliable test to see if we even do develop immunity after being ill - or how long for. So there is the awful possibility of getting it again in a few months or a year.

I agree. But unless we assume you develop immunity after having it then a vaccination program is absolutely pointless.

If you don't develop immunity after recovering from it then you won't develop immunity from a vaccine.

So holding out hopes for a vaccine September is slightly pie in the sky.

[Mustbetimeforachange]

I don't think anyone really believes we will have a vaccine in September. Apart from anything else, being over the peak/lockdown & PPE are designed to stop people getting it so results will be slow as the volunteers are unlikely to be exposed. If it does work they will have to manufacture it & roll it out, no small feat.

[Babdoc]

A British vaccine started clinical trials in human volunteers this week. If it goes well, it can be rolled out to the public - starting with NHS staff for obvious reasons- as early as September.
If we can keep case rates low by any method - either lockdown, or contact tracing - until the vaccine is in mass production, there may be no need for us all to suffer this vile illness. I was hospitalised with it after 13 nights fighting to breathe alone at home, and I wouldn’t wish it on anyone. And we have no reliable test to see if we even do develop immunity after being ill - or how long for. So there is the awful possibility of getting it again in a few months or a year. Just “letting it rip” so everyone gets it is not a sensible idea, and would lead to excess deaths.

[Derbygerbil]

One thing I am not clear on is why we are not contact tracing with respect to those cases that we are currently identifying?

We don’t yet have the capacity. Numbers are too high. Once we have the capacity, capability and resources to do robust contact tracing we’ll be able to significantly relax lockdown measures.

[Derbygerbil]

And that's not a great plan either. There's a mid way between 'everyone needs to get it' and 'everyone needs to go to extremes to avoid any chance of coming into contact with it for a undetermined amount of time'. Neither are feasible.

Agreed.

[Derbygerbil]

I don't see how this can work in London. Isn't the current thinking that you'd have to trace 2 weeks of contacts over 15 minutes?

And yet many people panic when someone gets within 2 metres for a couple of seconds....let alone 15 minutes.

[Sourcat]

An app won't alert you because you happened to be in Tesco at the same time as someone who tests positive; only if you spent 15 minutes or more in close contact with them - ie in conversation.

[Sunshinegirl82]

We are still getting quite significant numbers of infections though and given the incubation period and period of lockdown, the newer infections are likely to have been acquired during the lockdown period? There will obviously be some people still working etc so whilst lockdown massively reduces the number of contacts it doesn’t make it zero.

Unless they are confident that almost all of those cases are as a result of the virus moving through a household and/or they are accounted for by transmission in hospitals and care homes.

[MarginalGain]

One thing I am not clear on is why we are not contact tracing with respect to those cases that we are currently identifying?

I assume it's because we're on lockdown, and the chains of transmission are broken.

[Sunshinegirl82]

One thing I am not clear on is why we are not contact tracing with respect to those cases that we are currently identifying?

If we started testing and contract tracing now (whilst the lockdown remains in place) we would presumably drive infection rates down faster.

I really do think that the government needs to explain its plan better. Unless you are paying a lot of attention and searching the information out the messaging just isn’t there.

[Reginabambina]

Because we will have to continue with contact tracing and suppression until we achieve herd immunity (either through a vaccine or the old fashioned way).

[MarginalGain]

A 1% IFR is probably too high. More like 0.5%. and it doesn't just kill randomly like your thought experiment suggests, it overwhelmingly kills old, frail, unwell people.

.5% is almost certainly much higher than the actual fatality rate.

@DeathByBoredom we are currently calculating R0 at 0.7. This means that instead of exponential increase, we have exponential decrease. Why would you imagine that cases would not continue to decrease?

Matt Hancock has no idea how much of the general public has been infected, is currently infected, and is susceptible to covid19.

Contact tracing makes sense only if the Soviet-era SAGE 'correct thinking' is actually correct, i.e. only 3% of the population has been infected by now because of their lockdown and it's a very dangerous disease that demands drastic intervention.

[Naithnira]

Everyone will get it eventually. Hopefully there will shortly be medication available that makes the serious cases less lethal. Eventually it will become one of those things that you catch as a kid while it doesn’t severely affect you, and adults have all had it. Or it’ll be one of those things that you’re vaccinated against as a baby. My main concern is how do we stop China unleashing another virus on the world? This is like the third time now.

[DeathByBoredom]

Ok so my next question is ... perfectly reasonably ... based on performance so far, why do you think the government's plan is truthful, based on evidence, likely to work, not made up on the back of a fag packet?

I just don't understand why you can't see the maths no longer works on contact testing/tracing alongside our current version of lockdown. How do you think we will arrive at the point where we can identify all the people infected by one person? It's rife where I live. I can see it might work locally. If noone moves anywhere for the next year.

[TimeForChange123]

It's not so much 'we all need to get it', it's that many MNetters think the solution is to never/extremely rarely leave their homes, quarantine mail and wash all their food in soapy water and plan to do so 'till it's safe'.

And expect everyone else to do the same.

And that's not a great plan either. There's a mid way between 'everyone needs to get it' and 'everyone needs to go to extremes to avoid any chance of coming into contact with it for a undetermined amount of time'. Neither are feasible.

[Hercwasonaroll]

@nellodee

But how do you know which one child caught it? By the time they have symptoms the odds are that child will have mixed with lots of others.

[nellodee]

And you would have to think that if the kid had it, someone else in their family would have it too, and the kid might end up being isolated as part of that transmission chain before they even went in to school to infect people there.

[nellodee]

@Keepdistance we would hope that 2.5% of kids wouldn't catch it, though. If we have contact tracing, we're aiming for only about 10% of the entire population to get it, because the cases should hopefully stay low. So your 2.5% of 10% would then be only 1 kid catching it. So hopefully only 1 member of staff, who would then be traced, and hopefully that chain of transmission is small enough to be stamped on.

I don't know if it will work in practise. None of us do. But staying in lockdown for a year seems impractical and allowing the virus to spread exponentially is intolerable, so we have to try this and hope that there is a third way, I think.

[Keepdistance]

They may or may not be but each child represents 3+ other people with their contacts. Even if only 2.5% of kids catch covid say. We have say 400 kids at school. So 10 kids catch it. Potentially 10 teachers. Plus up to 30 family members.
So 50 people. Then obviously their supermarket and workplaces...

[nellodee]

But this is why waiting and seeing what happens in other parts of Europe is a good idea... there's one country that's letting primary aged kids back first, isn't there?

[nellodee]

I'm really hoping that this thing about the under 10s not getting it often and not carrying it much pans out. That would really help a lot, wouldn't it?

[Floatyboat]

Kids likely transmit it a lot less than adults. Masks for tube etc would seem sensible.