What do they mean ‘social distancing in some form until the end of the year’?

[BuffaloCauliflower]

Just that really? What sort of level are they actually talking about? Surely the country will crumble, hospitality industry for one won’t survive if people can’t go out normally all summer and then Christmas time as well? The fallout will be far greater than the virus and the country will be bankrupt.

Anyone more knowledgeable than me able to contribute?

[Walkaround]

I agree, @midgebabe’s link on page 1 of this thread is excellent.

[bluebeck]

The unemployment won’t be forever and neither will the poverty caused by this, death is forever and I would rather be poor and have my loved ones than be without them

Agree with this.

[hard2reach]

@BuffaloCauliflower I recommend you watch the Government's daily press conferences on the BBC News Channel (usually 5pm on weekdays and 4pm-ish on weekends). That's where headlines like this come from. The journos ask questions, and write headlines based on the answers, but I think you would get a lot more context by watching the original.
This particular headline came from yesterday's briefing (22nd April): www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hxk9/bbc-news-special-coronavirus-daily-update-22042020

[LuluJakey1]

I don't know, none of us do. I imagine we will be told to stay 2m apart and if that is impossible to wear face-masks.

Places of work will have to ensure staff have access to handwashing every 30 minutes?
Hand-sanitisers everywhere we go?
Employers will have to up cleaning standards - doorhandles and surfaces cleaned throughout the day?
I wonder about travel abroad and holidays - I suspect there will be very little of it. There will be far fewer available flights. Many countries will not allow foreigners in. If they do, many tourist venues (hotels, restaurants, cafes, bars etc) will already have gone bust. Prices will rocket. Holidays in Britain this year for many - boost our own tourism industry.
Large gatherings may remain banned. Football, concerts, festivals, clubs remain closed.
We may still have the only leave the house for exercise or essential shopping?

Just my thinking of course.

DH (teacher) is finding it hard to imagine how a 1100+ secondary school (that is already bursting at the seams) can social distance.

[WanderingLost167]

I think there's going to be a number of people who has gone through Covid who are going to start flouting the rules.

Shield the vulnerable to control the infection rate within those groups, but start letting the lock down restrictions reduce.

[BuffaloCauliflower]

@hard2reach thanks for the patronising comment but I do watch them... hence me being interested in the fact Chris Whitty said this yesterday. Perhaps more will be pulled out of it today but I doubt they’ll have made any decisions yet

[Abreadsandwich]

I was quite shocked by the news on Tuesday that April had had 8000 more deaths than expected (or than last year, sorry cant remember which) and that a third of them were due to covid 19.....which means there were around 5.5k extra deaths that were not due (directly?) To covid 19. This was not addressed or explained.

But agree with a pp that before lockdown lots of people were saying the gov was putting the economy before lives (which I never saw as a black and white choice anyway - the 2 are so closely linked - hence the term working for a living ir livelihood) Now people are complaining it's not economically viable to keep locked down. (Which of course is true we cant be locked down for ever) I wonder if its the same people complaining/criticising both times....?

[DogInATent]

I think there's going to be a number of people who has gone through Covid who are going to start flouting the rules.

The problem is, we don't know if those that have had Covid-19 and come out the other side are immune. There's an assumption that they are, because to assume otherwise starts to make things look a bit bleak. But it's still an unproven assumption if you read the science press.

[BuffaloCauliflower]

@Abreadsandwich we had fewer deaths from flu over the winter than usual though, we won’t know for a year if more people have actually died than expected over the year as a whole, which will be a more useful marker

[hard2reach]

@BuffaloCauliflower, sorry if I offended you, but if you already know where the information is coming from I'm curious as to why you think Mumsnetters will have more answers. You will get speculation, that's all.

[DogInATent]

I was quite shocked by the news on Tuesday that April had had 8000 more deaths than expected (or than last year, sorry cant remember which) and that a third of them were due to covid 19.....which means there were around 5.5k extra deaths that were not due (directly?) To covid 19. This was not addressed or explained.

It has been addressed explained to a limited extent in press briefings, but with more in-depth coverage and investigation by Channel 4, The Guardian, etc.

• people that have died of Covid where this hasn't been recorded on the death certificate. NHS Trusts were actively discouraging doctors from recording Covid on death certificates for deaths in the community.

• people with chronic conditions unable to access treatment due to resources being deployed against Covid (e.g. postponement of cancer treatments and planned surgeries).

• people with acute health issues choosing not to access treatment because they're worried about being a burden on a health service they've been repeatedly told is vulnerable to being overwhelmed (e.g. strokes, heart attacks).

• people with mental health and/or addiction issues unable to access the support they use to get through each day without self-harm or self-medication.

• poverty kills and situations like we're in now exacerbate the problems of poverty.

[Lycidas]

I wish people would talk sense. Social distancing is not keeping the death rate low. It’s just spreading it out so that’s it’s more manageable and the NHS isn’t overwhelmed at once.

The countries with low death rates have one thing in common: relentless testing and contact tracing.

[BuffaloCauliflower]

@hard2reach I’m just interested in people’s takes on what it might mean. I know no one has the exact answers, but Mumsnet is full of people with a range of knowledge that is different to me so can offer different perspectives

[Forgone90]

The hard think for Chris Witty is that at the moment the government will hang on his every word but as soon ttgat the economy looks under massive threat much of what he says will be brushed under the carpet

[BuffaloCauliflower]

@Lycidas this is absolutely right. Social distancing doesn’t stop the spread it just slows it. We are way behind on testing and it shows

[MrKlaw]

even if lockdown ends but social distancing remains - it'll be massively less restrictive (good) but also massively less effective (bad). But probably necessary as we need to slowly relax things while keeping within health service capacity

Eg if you have to go to work even if you can stay 2m apart from colleagues, you're still on the train/bus and probably close to people. Still pressing train buttons to open doors etc.

[feelingverylazytoday]

There's a lot of measures that can be adopted. Wearing masks in public, encouraging WFH where necessary, reducing days in schools, pubs and cafes allowed to have customers seated outdoors, more shops opening, maybe allowing tiny weddings, etc etc.
As far as visiting relatives go, I think the approach will be to encourage and educate people to take personal responsibility, steps such as monitoring your own temperature, being strict with hygiene, meeting in the garden where possible. I can't see the government 'banning' people from meeting up with family for months, possibly years. Most people are just going to ignore it, and in any case long term social isolation is in itself harmful.

[Userwhatevernumber]

What about churches and places of religious worship? Do we think they would open with schools? Or with leisure places (theatres etc)?

I know they are not essential and that people are able to worship from their own homes, with live streaming of services etc, so I fear it may be a very long time before they open again, maybe next year.

But I and a lot of others I know are really struggling with this prospect. I know the churches (and other religious groups) are a lifeline for so many, and for some people, this may be the only social connections they have. My church (as I know many others do) does so many projects and help for vulnerable groups, and I am worried for those people.

For people who do not have a faith, the idea of not being able to go to church (or other place of worship) for 2 years is no problem at all, but for many others, this would be devastating and a huge impact.

[Forgone90]

People need to remember aswell that Witty is an advisor not a politician... His view will be solely based on the medical side of all of this and none of his advice will be based on economic implications.. So the government have to take his advice and that of the chancellor and many other advisors and come up with a plan that is somewhere in the middle!

[Thingybob]

Thank you for the link Midgebabe. The surprising thing I took from that document is how unpopular it would be to lift restrictions by age. In my opinion it is a no brainer to allow under 40s out to resume thier lives when the statistics shows a mortality rate of only 1 in 100,000 for that age group.

[PuppyMonkey]

I think the Government and the scientists here are delaying an announcement on wearing face masks in public right now in case people say “right I’m off out to see my mates TODAY if that is now officially seen as safe.”

Give it a couple of weeks and the advice will mysteriously change.

I think until a vaccine is found, that is the only way to try and get back to “normal.”

[Abreadsandwich]

As well as a vaccine, scientists are working on developing more effective treatments which will also change things. so while covid 19 is still around and cant yet be vaccinated against, better treatments might improve the outcome or lower the death rate.

[WhyCantIthinkOfAgoodOne]

I imagine there'll be a restarting of the economy and schools but more measures in place to avoid the high R0 we had before. So no hand shaking, more virtual meetings, fewer large gatherings etc.

[WhyCantIthinkOfAgoodOne]

People also need to remember that it's not JUST the mortality rate we need to be concerned with. AS a healthy woman in my 30s I'm very unlikely to actually die but I am at risk of needing to go to hospital (and if I don't get treatment when I need it my organs will begin to get damaged) so we need to consider what hospitals can cope with - which will include lots of people who will eventually survive.

[AnotherMurkyDay]

I mean it will take a while, but in another 100 years when the next big pandemic breaks out they will probably have forgotten all about it, like the 1918 influenza. So life will go back to normal. Not sure how quickly, but it will. We will forget lessons learned, both positive and negative. People will stop washing their hands (or their shopping) again, congregate in large groups again without giving illness a second thought, and this will just be a mention in some history books. It feels colossal and catastrophic being in the middle of it, crises always do and this is a big one, and for people who are adults now some of that will stay with us a lifetime, but for our children it will be a distant memory, and our grandchildren it will be forgotten about entirely. That's how these things go