we have now had more deaths from covid 19 than China!

[EricaNernie]

That is so shocking and awful.
remembering how impressed and worried we were about china building new hospitals almost overnight, and the lockdown
and now it is here.

[TulipsInAJug]

It needed the honest reporting from Italy and Spain for the democratic world to sit up and take notice.

Very true. China lied. But I'm astonished that the West didn't expect this, I'm astonished at the naivety.

[KayakingOnDown]

Why does anyone think we should follow the advice of Tedros Adhano Ghebreyesus, director-general of WHO (the World Health Organisation), who is hailing China for "transparency" and work in protecting "the people of the world" while ignoring at China's behest Taiwan's astonishing success dealing with the epidemic.

[moimichme]

Cross post Keepdistance!

[moimichme]

goldpartyhat I think you kind of have a point, but it's not China that downplayed the severity - that was various governments and media outlets, possibly to prevent panic, but it backfired spectacularly because a lot of people didn't take it seriously and thought it'd fizzle out.

I think because it was the start of a new virus and lots of people/gov't didn't trust the numbers from China (some assuming it was worse, others that it wasn't) we've ended up in this situation where until it hit the West, people didn't want to believe it could come here or harm the % predicted by numbers in China.

Just my opinion though, having been following this since January.

[Keepdistance]

Im not sure china ever said that?
Their actions in building hospitals in days...
It was the uk reporting that was saying that even when it was clearly not the case when looking at italy.
They also allowed big events here when they knew the position in italy. And allowed schools to go on for 2-3w. I know this because i knew and took my dc out of school 2w early. And expected the schools to shut that day or the next.
The uk gov also kept saying the death rate was low when from italy it clearly was not. As i say uk had that info for several weeks.
It is possible they didnt take seriously due to china figures about not letting asymptomatic and actually everyone back to work from italy.
However that was uk gov error. And it was clear (to a whole thread of mnetters that those returning should all have been quarantined immediately (mainly because of china figures 80k at that point very few had recovered so it was clear they could still die and also that to let it run through could have left millions who needed hospital with no bed.)

We ignored the WHO and other countries looked at us like we were crazy. So they had a grasp of what the china data was saying...


We needed to use the time we had to get the ventilators and oxygen hospitals and ppe.

[goldpartyhat]

If China had been honest about the deadliness of this virus, other countries would,have been better prepared. The talk was all 'it's no worse than a mild case of flu and only affects sick elderly people. Total bloody lie.

If they had been honest all countries would have been far more alarmed and the initial U.K. response (herd immunity building) would,have been seen to have been absurd, and lockdown would have happened sooner.

It needed the honest reporting from Italy and Spain for the democratic world to sit up and take notice.

[MangoFeverDream]

Then we have "implausible" flattening - how can you say that when there are virtually no other "flattenings" to compare? On that basis presumably the south Korean curve is also implausible?

The South Korean case is very different and you know it. They have set the standard, and that’s why they have been successful at flattening the curve. They didn’t even need to do a lockdown. Did you even read the Washington Post article about the count being estimated at over 40,000 dead in Wuhan?

You know, the Washington Post. Known far-right rag. Big supporter of Trump 😂😂😂

The (far) right wing in the west want/need a bogeyman and have a track record of manipulating social media, (the telegraph didnt improve its integrity credentials over the brexit saga - it is a right wing mouthpiece)
If there really is a co-ordinated campaign from China is it defensive? Given the trump attack on the Chinese economy and hauwei it wouldnt be surprising

What is this shit? Who’s doing any of this? I’m telling you my sources are Caixin, SCMP and WaPo. Very mainstream.

The questioning of Chinese numbers are not coming from far-right sources (they are likely bandying about fake conspiracy theories on how it is bio warfare and came from a lab or something)

[FrankieStein402]

So we agree that for the 20 days or so from the first 5 deaths China was reporting as accurately as anyone else.

Then we have "implausible" flattening - how can you say that when there are virtually no other "flattenings" to compare? On that basis presumably the south Korean curve is also implausible?

Again, if China hasn't flattened the curve then why are they easing restrictions? Or is the claim that they are allowing deaths to explode behind some incomprehensible facade.

The (far) right wing in the west want/need a bogeyman and have a track record of manipulating social media, (the telegraph didnt improve its integrity credentials over the brexit saga - it is a right wing mouthpiece)
If there really is a co-ordinated campaign from China is it defensive? Given the trump attack on the Chinese economy and hauwei it wouldnt be surprising.

[Quartz2208]

My point is that the early numbers could very well be true, the fact is the first death date is China is reported as what 14th January? 4-6 weeks after it was first noticed so what 6-8 weeks after it first came to pass.
They is nothing to say at the beginning the data they released wasn’t accurate it was just later as it started getting worse and out of hand that they realised and shut it all down.
Yes Asia has handled it better because of SARS and other countries such as Taiwan and South Korea managed it instantly as soon as they realised

And yes the UK Gvt handling may well make ours worse than other European countries that is not the point. China’s data is odd and the flattening of the curve given what we know now about how long a lockdown takes odd

Which then means you have to ask the question could the Chinese Government cover it up, is the way that it is run enough to make any reports of it scarce and can it’s not like they don’t have form

But that also doesn’t mean the US don’t want to push it as well to make them look better

All of these things as I keep on saying aren’t mutually exclusive of each other. Pretty much all handling of this from our gvt to the US, Chinese gvt and the WHO have screwed up and made it worse

Why? A mixture of the unfortunate fact the Coronavirus is novel and as much as allout wants to say the WHO are experts they are in their field just not about this incredibly new virus. So that put everyone on the back foot from the start. They are learning though
And the denial pretty much everyone started from a point of denial

But that is where if the figures were massaged (and let’s face it pretty much everyone’s figures are at this point) China didn’t let us see how bad it was

And that’s the other thing we are still learning about the asymptomatic cases that alone throws all figures out

Data is an incredibly useful tool. But it is not nor will it ever be incontrovertible proof it can’t be start and end user bias always comes into play. Take DNA evidence held up as the gold standard of someone’s guilt. But it doesn’t it says their DNA was there not how it got there

[MangoFeverDream]

It feels very much like the leaders in the west didn't take precaution or action early enough and now faced with the prospect of thousands dying and their electorate turning on them, they're looking for a scapegoat

Maybe not. But people were basing their responses on the numbers coming out of China, which gave a false picture. It wasn’t until Italy that the true power of COVID-19 was demonstrated on the world stage. I can’t have been the only one shocked by the numbers; more Italians dying in a matter of days than Chinese ever have died...despite a vastly better healthcare system. Does this make sense to you?

The Chinese figures were reported 3-8 weeks before those of other countries yet managed to follow the same ratios of deaths per million along the same timeline

That curve looks implausibly flattened, sorry. Here’s an SCMP article about the Caixin article that cast doubt on official figures: www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3077644/funeral-parlour-report-fans-fears-over-wuhan-death-toll

I repeat - who gains most from sowing doubt about the veracity of Chinese numbers?

People who want to know what really happened in Wuhan. It’s going to be the new Tiananmen. Hope the censors in Beijing are ready...

[FrankieStein402]

@quartz2208 - actually it is either incontrovertible or proof that the Chinese government can predict the future.
The Chinese figures were reported 3-8 weeks before those of other countries yet managed to follow the same ratios of deaths per million along the same timeline.
There is no feasible falsification that could replicate figures in that way across so many national reporting bodies.

I repeat - who gains most from sowing doubt about the veracity of Chinese numbers?

[OffThePlanet]

China’s population is close to one and a half billion. The UK’s population is under 68 million. The percentage of deaths per head of population not the amount would give a clearer picture of enough being done to halt this pandemic..

Also the amount of people with Coronavirus isn’t true if people aren’t being tested.

[FortunesFavour]

God it’s like Groundhog Day in here. Do you fancy taking over for a shift @BovaryX? I’m off to bed.

Night all

[ShanghaiDiva]

Do feel free to report the selection of insults in that post to MNHQ.
Slight problem, there aren’t any.

[FortunesFavour]

Take your pick - there are a selection to choose from!

Anyway, I am ignoring my own advice not to engage with this nonsense. My opinion has only been reinforced by our recent exchanges and I’ve made my point. People can judge for themselves.

[ShanghaiDiva]

Which insult?

[FortunesFavour]

.....and so you circle back to the insults Shanghai. Tick!

[ShanghaiDiva]

One last time:
Nobody has tried to shut down discussion. Different points were made regarding the veracity of Chinese figures. Some posters feel the need to dismiss comments when they do not align with their own views and then accuse them of not allowing an open discussion.
Nobody accused anyone of racism or used the racism card to prevent a critique of the Chinese govt’s handling of the outbreak.
Poseb has experienced racist comments (not referring to this thread) and I am sure we all agree this is not acceptable.
If anyone wants to look back through my comments on this thread (and I can’t imagine why anyone would want to) they will see that I have made several comments where I agreed that China had probably lied eg person to person transmission. I aim to be balanced in my comments based on what I have seen and experienced in China. My only agenda is filling my time as there is nothing on tv.
Ironically, the posters who have derailed the discussion are those that are convinced that some of us are are paid puppets of the Chinese state which is just so bonkers it beggars belief.

[FortunesFavour]

Not at all @Porseb - I abhor racist behaviour and I’m truly sorry that you have experienced it.

But just because racist idiots exist, as they always have and always will, does not mean it can used as a tool by the CCP to suppress discussion of the origins of the virus and whether there has been dishonesty over when and how it originated.

That is what is happening all over social media in a concerted campaign. Maybe you are part of that, maybe you aren’t, but it is clear that there are other posters on this thread who party to this.

I won’t shut up either. Free speech will not be suppressed however much the communist party floods social media with their propaganda and their insinuations that honest discussion of the fact is racist.

[ShanghaiDiva]

@Porseb
I think you hit the nail on the head with ‘nasty’.

[Porseb]

@FortunesFavour - I was speaking from experience - would you rather I shut up and put up?

[FortunesFavour]

And I think it’s bullying behaviour to use the disgraceful instances of racism against Chinese people (carried out by bigoted idiots) in an obvious attempt to shut down discussion the origins of the virus which will inevitably lead to recurrences.

So different strokes for different folks I suppose.

[Porseb]

Maybe the word I'm looking for isn't bullying - it's not libellous either is it? Nasty - maybe it's just nasty.

You will excuse me but I do speak another 3 languages on top of English and it's late, and I've had a hard day's work and I can't think of the word I'm looking for in English

[Porseb]

I think it's bullying behaviour to accuse people on a parenting forum of being paid by a foreign government to influence views.