to think that at least a house price crash would be a sliver of silver lining

[yougottheshining]

I voted remain. I am beyond upset that we are leaving. However, if house prices in my area come down by 20% I could afford to buy. I'm not even that bothered about being a home-owner per se but I can only afford to rent because I get tax credits and housing benefit (despite working full time). For years I have been shiteing myself about what will happen to me and my kids when these top-ups stop, all the while being subjected to programme after programme about property porn, and headline after headline about how good it is that houses are worth so much money . I have had a permanent knot in my stomach about what will happen when my oldest hits 18 and we have to move to a smaller house because I will no longer get enough to house us all, and again what will happen when my youngest hits 18 and I will have to move to a room in a shared house, and there will be nowhere, I mean absolutely nowhere, for the kids to go. Because rents keep on going up, and I can't afford our (modest) house anyway on what I earn alone, and the only way around that is to buy, but I can't buy because I'm paying out so much in rent. I cannot explain just how worried I have been about this, for years. I really don't want to leave the EU. I have been crying and swearing around the place for the entire weekend. But actually I am in a fucking horrible situation in regard to housing and shelter for me and my family, so AIBU if one of the effects is that house prices fall to a level that will make it affordable for us to have a family home?

[dangerrabbit]

*round of applause to miffle

OP as a homeowner I think that property prices are ridiculously overinflated and I sympathise with your position although it would be a Bad Thing for me.

The point is, no one can know what is going to happen next but the markets don't like uncertainty so looks like the tories have plunged us into another recession.

[throwingpebbles]

op I genuinely sympathise with your wish for more affordable and secure housing options.

Sadly, my friend has just informed me that two large pioneering projects to deliver affordable and new social housing which she has been working on for several years have just been pulled as a result of Brexit.

Let's hope that's not replicated across the country. I don't want to be right, I don't want the poorest and most vulnerable section of society to suffer worst from Brexit, but I am horribly worried that is what will happen

[starry0ne]

This thread demonstrates very nicely the resounding success of the Tory "divide and conquer" policies.

Home owners and renters literally arguing over which of them has it worse, ignoring the huge elephant in the room that actually they both are in, or about to be in, precarious and pretty shit situations despite (as the government would say) working hard, doing the right thing, trying to get on for their families sake etc etc etc.

We all need to recognise that housing is a need and a basic right rather than an investment vehicle and instead of fighting with each other over who has it worse, turn our attention to how we can influence the policies held by whoever is in power (or indeed influence who is in power) to ensure that everyone has a secure and affordable roof over their head, and their families' heads.


Exactly Miffle

[temporaryusername]

I agree about investors Fox, I am not sure how all this is going to affect that. Less appeal to investors maybe, but with the pound low foreign investors will get a bargain. Also, a drop in new homes being built will decrease supply.

If a fall is part of a huge recession then yes, many will not be able to take advantage of it, but some will, and increasing numbers will be able to if prices recover slowly. Also there is competion for other resources, not just housing but all the things we buy, and so less of a wealth gap between owners and non owners will affect that.

[expatinscotland]

LOL. Yes, you'd so get a mortgage on tax credits and housing benefit . You do realise a crash means the economy is tanked, which means peoples' chances of borrowing will hover around FA since banks don't like to loan money in places where the economy is bad, and when they do, that make it a lot harder and more expensive to borrow.

[temporaryusername]

It is absolutely absurd to be advising those who want to buy, at least in areas like London and the South East, to earn more or to save up. House prices have been rising more in a year than even high earners can earn in a year, you could not possibly do anything other than fall further behind even if you are earning a high wage, even if you were living rent free when in reality you are paying more on rent than on mortgage repayments. Meanwhile any savings you have towards a deposit have been languishing with the same low interest rates that have helped many owners. Many have had to eat into deposit savings in order to pay rising rents as the demand supply ratio of renters to property increasingly works against them.
It is an absolute vicious circle and it is disingenuous to try and pretend that there is any sort of fairness to the situation or any way to get out of it just by trying harder. Buying a house is a gamble, you take the risk of buying at the top of the market but you may get the reward of prices increasing, especially over time. People buying houses they could not really afford were a huge contributor to the last recession.

Most of my family and people I love are homeowners and I fully empathise with the fears involved. But we must not pretend that owners wanting prices to maintain current levels or rise are in some way ethically superior to renters wanting them to fall. If anything, those owners are more unreasonable because for all but the most overstretched, a moderate fall would have far less impact on them than on renters.

[MitzyLeFrouf]

Property crashes don't happen in a vacum. They come hand in hand with a whole other shitstorm of hardship.

[DementedUnicorn]

I thought the same OP

Would never admit it in RL though I voted remain

[Whatthefoxgoingon]

It's not 1992. The world has changed. We have foreign investors on the scale never known before. 20% drop isn't enough to get the poorest on the property ladder. It's enough for a good BTL bargain and for 35 year olds with healthy deposits any ways to get a house. This isn't going to help anyone apart from the ones who are quite well off anyway.

[mamamea]

"Mamamea, is your bitterness because your sister can afford a £805k house and you can't afford anything? That must be shit all right."

Where did you get that idea? I have chosen not to spunk that kind of money on a shitty little box. It doesn't mean I can't afford to, I just don't want to.

[Highlandfling80]

you what about the help to buy ISA. I would call that an economic leg up.

[mamamea]

"A recession would be a disaster for the poorest. I'd like to know how many people snapped up a house in the last crash? "

Millions and millions of people - 30% of 18-24 year olds were homeowners in 1992. Now the figure is only 8%.

People were not necessarily going out and buying half-a-dozen houses for sixpence each, but lots of young people on normal wages could buy houses. Now it's a dream for most people.

[mamamea]

"Mamamea - you say why shouldn't I lose out as " nobody owes me a goddamn thing"
Well newslfash but nobody owes renters a goddamn thing either"

No shit, but the point is that at the moment we are looking at a situation where homeowners (or specifically those with big mortgages, or multiple homes are going to lose out). This isn't about renters.

[fanjoforthemammaries7850]

Yes id just love to lose the equity in my house.

YABU

[Whatthefoxgoingon]

A recession would be a disaster for the poorest. I'd like to know how many people snapped up a house in the last crash? I'd wager not a lot of people as they couldn't get a mortgage.

However, cash rich buyers will be more than happy with a crash as they will buy houses at a nice discount for BTLs. People who don't have a mortgage and aren't selling will just ride out the storm.

The pound just dropped again. Hard times are coming. People without the safety of nice savings, rock solid secure jobs and the ability to tighten their belts are totally fucked.

[Flumplet]

If the house prices in my area drop by 20pc my family and i are fucked. We've only just got to "break even" following the last recession in 2008 and have been saving like buggery for a deposit on somewhere new. so no, it's not a silver lining for us at all.

[MargaretCavendish]

OP, I actually have lots of sympathy with you, and I say that as someone who bought a house last year and so who doesn't really want to see prices drop (well, certainly not by 20%, which would put us on the edge of negative equity)! Renting absolutely is worse than owning in terms of insecurity and the money you see just disappear. I also don't really understand why people act like only those with mortgages will 'lose the roof over their heads' if they lose their jobs, etc. - you can't pay rent with magic beans either! I can completely see why you'd fantasise about a 20% price drop that would solve all your problems. However, it really is just a fantasy - there are no scenarios where prices drop that much and all else stays as is. Sorry, but that's true. You need to be working on other plans. For instance, you are obviously saving up money for a deposit - could you use this to cushion the fall in HB when your children turn 18 and so not have to downsize immediately? You clearly (and understandably) feel powerless, so I think you need to start working on ways that you can feel more in control. Hoping for recession isn't going to stop you feeling powerless.

[notfornothing]

No it won't

[whois]

Daydreaming about houses plummeting in value is childish - if that happens (it may or may not), the poor never benefit. They suffer first and worst.

Exactly.

If there is a house price 'crash' it will likly come with a recession, higher interest rates and stricter lending criteria.

You still won't be able to afford to buy...

I do agree that for the country as a whole a correction is needed, I just can't see that being a 'good thing' for most people for a very long time tho.

[TreadSoftlyOnMyDreams]

A silver lining would be being able to afford to purchase your own home or comfortably house your family without state assistance.

I'm not sure that a house price crash would deliver that given it is likely to come with a whole range of other economic downsides, but I understand why you might try to look for possible positive outcomes from Friday's vote.

So yabu for the post question, but yanbu for the desire for stable housing. I think it is one area that has been incredibly mismanaged by successive governments of all colours in the 15 years I have been here.

[Schwabischeweihnachtskanne]

Well said Miffle

[MiffleTheIntrovert]

This thread demonstrates very nicely the resounding success of the Tory "divide and conquer" policies.

Home owners and renters literally arguing over which of them has it worse, ignoring the huge elephant in the room that actually they both are in, or about to be in, precarious and pretty shit situations despite (as the government would say) working hard, doing the right thing, trying to get on for their families sake etc etc etc.

We all need to recognise that housing is a need and a basic right rather than an investment vehicle and instead of fighting with each other over who has it worse, turn our attention to how we can influence the policies held by whoever is in power (or indeed influence who is in power) to ensure that everyone has a secure and affordable roof over their head, and their families' heads.

[Herschellmum]

Wow ... Although I appreciate your not in the best of situations, wishing negative equity and even bankruptcy in thousands of people is a fairly horrid thing to wish. As someone who put their house up for sale last week it really hits home. Can you imagine for a minute that you did get in the housing market, clearly with very little equity and then the market collapsed, not only would you then be homeless you would have lost all that money.

Not only that the entire market will be affected, yes you may be able to get a mortgage now, but if people are losing houses than banks will change their lending criteria again. You probably won't be able to get one. For a lot of people,especially nes homeowners 20% is their entire deposit, I know people who have less than 20% equity.

Frankly I doubt house prices will be affected anymore near 20%, more likely about 2/5% which is painful enough.