To wonder how the world will look in 40 years

[Figmentofmyimagination]

We killed time on a long car journey yesterday idly speculating about this. If you think back to how the world looked in 1980 - and how it looks now.
My DD (15) was very pessimistic - no antibiotics, species deaths etc. My DH was much more optimistic in some ways - eg better genetics to tackle diseases. I thought the trains might be a bit faster! Actually I'm pretty pessimistic politically, but more interesting to hear what others think. This feels like one of those "turning points".

By 2055 Artificial Intelligence (AI) will potentially have reached the point of singularity i.e. that point where it makes the leap to Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). At that point, unless adequate safeguards have been engineered (difficult, as it's almost impossible to outwit something that has an IQ of about 40,000) then the human race could be extinguished within hours. In effect, your children's generation may well be the last human generation prior to an extinction event. That's why I've stopped caring about climate change.

On a more positive note, if the jump to ASI is handled effectively, and the appropriate safeguards work in the way that they are intended, then such will be the intellect open to the human race that previously insurmountable problems will be confronted and solved. Another reason I've stopped worrying about climate change.

I tend to assume the worst but I liked the FurtureTimeline site - really interesting!

I'm sure it will be fairly similar to today, after all basic human needs remain the same - I don't foresee a great apocalypse.

Although I think China will be the world super-power and the new colonials, Africa will be in the ascent again following redevelopment by the Chinese.

According to DH investing for your retirement now is key as the NHS, benefits system will be long gone.

Everything will be privatised. That's at least one thing.

Any excuse to stop caring about climate change.

You worry about climate change, I'll worry about AI. I guarantee that in 40 years time I'll have more to worry about than you.

"It will be like Wall-E, or even more like an Orwell novel than it is now. Or both. We will have destroyed the planet, the first world will be peopled by the morbidly obese, while developing countries will be going to war over access to fresh water. The rich will be able to leave the planet on giant space craft serviced by robots & will be able to ignore the carnage. The UK will be mostly under water from the polar ice caps melting."

Yep, totally agree with this. What keeps me up at night is the thought that our children, or possibly their children, will be fighting wars against people desperately fleeing their homes and invading the "life boats" of the world due to climate change - the UK, as well as NZ. As predicted by the Gaia hypothesis guy, forgotten his name. The one who has accurately predicted a lot of climate change stuff since the 1980s.

We're sleepwalking towards disaster with climate change, I can't believe people aren't more concerned about it.

I think advances in technology will mean we may have

1. Driverless cars (already in prototype so can imagine that happening)

2. Offices will either be smart offices e.g no computers and desks will be like smart desks on which you have a keyboard hologram and hologram screen (something like Minority report but not that far)

3. Offices might be a thing of the past and everyone works from home and meetings etc. are held by video conference etc. Therefore leading to homes being built with technology built into it much more

4. I think shopping and going to a high street might also be a thing of the past and you would shop at home but in a virtual way e.g. you would have virtual reality to provide that shop experience of going through the racks and looking at clothes - all then delivered to your house as you select them.

I think electric bikes might become cool (also foldaway electric scooters), instead of slightly ridiculous (was thinking this pedalling up the hill on the way home tonight).

I can't really see driverless cars taking off because they offend our need to believe that someone is in control - just as pilotless commercial airplanes are IMHO a non starter.

hmmm but we have driverless trains... I could see driverless cars in London where already they are limiting speed to 20mph on alot of roads. In a way driverless cars are like driverless trams/trains - stick them on a track, tap into a sat nav type thing for your destination and off it goes.

Driverless cars won't take off because they can't make ethical decisions. When a child darts out right in front of a car, driverless or not, the laws of physics say it can't stop in time. The driver makes a split second decision, hit the child, swerve to the left into a parked car, swerve to the right into oncoming traffic. What's coming towards me in the oncoming traffic, a smart car that will be an unpleasant accident, or a cement mixer that might kill me. Computers are no nearer making those choices than they were when Babbage was around.

And even if it could make those choices, it better be sure it's a child that's run out and not a bin liner in the wind. Humans can make that decision in an instant, a computer has to scan the object, run it thu its memory database, decide what the object is, and then make a choice on it's actions. Even now that can take around 10 seconds, with all the computing power we have. A human can do it in an instant.

Driverless cars might be fine on a pre determined low speed drop off, like from North Greenwich tube station to the O2 entrance, at 5 mph, but that's as good as it will get.

I reckon we'll have seen the end of the Argos catalogue. The survivors will envy the dead.

Our grandchildren will produce essays on something that used to be called a Labour Party, and there will be PhDs written on how there used to be trade unions and what a shame it was that we let it all fall apart under our noses.

Ditto the NHS, etc etc