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Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

(382 Posts)
OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 17:31:53


Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 14:39:42

Thanks Jux smile the upturn in the forecast must also be a relief!

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 14:42:22

The storage situation still looks tight in the national grid daily report but I see the medium term storage looks a little better. Has your brother got any comments on it? smile

edam Sun 24-Mar-13 14:58:18

OYBBK grin @ canoe!

LillethTheCat Sun 24-Mar-13 15:11:41

You're right upthread Kitten. Snow is preferable to flooding. I was just reading that it was finally going to get warmer, but it is no good if its going to bring lots of rain with it sad

Well summer better be bloody good after all this snow and rain and potential flooding. Fingers crossed people are safe.

mikey9 Sun 24-Mar-13 15:29:21

Believe itor not - our area of the Highlands (Moray Firth and Inverness area) has had a perfectly fine Winter - with very little snow - nothing that has stayed for more than a day - and only very occasional falls.
Have also had very little precipitation and temps have been warmer than usual with very few freezing days.

To add to this - last summer was great......although we are constantly bombarded with the "fact" that last summer was rubbish across the UK - and no doubt will be told the same about this winter.

We have to go looking ofr sledging snow - I think the kids have given up hoping for it for this year!

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 15:54:29

oh hell sad I think I may have been a bit too enthusiastic about the models this morning.
Might need snow suits over Easter for many, rather than a transitory affair that was showing this morning, its just possible it might be rather like this weekend.

Now clearly its not set in stone and could go either way, but, dont get your hopes up too enormously.

MooncupGoddess Sun 24-Mar-13 16:04:26

Oh dear!

I am going to be on a boat along the Essex coast over the Easter weekend... how's the wind looking, OYBBK?

digerd Sun 24-Mar-13 16:26:06

I'm not going anywhere, just walking little dog in my eskimo outfit morning and afternoon. < and doing some spring cleaning>.
Not got above freezing all day.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 16:37:48

mooncup, it depends which model you look at I'm afraid.

MegGriffin Sun 24-Mar-13 18:02:44

Kitten have you ever thought of having a weather facebook page we could follow?

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 18:10:27

ermmm, would I be able to do it so I was secret? not sure I'd want to out myself, though I do feel that I lead a very odd split life grin I'll have to think about that.

LadyFlumpalot Sun 24-Mar-13 18:13:51

Kitten, please can I ask what you reckon for inland Kent (Tonbridge) next weekend? We are supposed to be travelling from Dorset to see relatives in Tonbridge, but if it's going to be an issue getting home again I'd rather not. Thanks!

At the moment it's dry, but effing cold here. We had a mystery and sudden snow storm last Sunday that was VERY localised and deposited about 4inches on the ground. By 3pm it had all gone and was warm enough to take coats off!

LillethTheCat Sun 24-Mar-13 18:14:37

Bums sad

Meglet Sun 24-Mar-13 18:14:44

this depressing article was in last weeks Observer

I haven't sown any seeds yet, I wonder if what the farmers have managed to do so far this 'Spring'.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 18:18:57

ladyflump, I really do think you need to keep an eye on things. at the moment theres two different scenarios back on the table cold and wet or cold and snowy. spring got postponed again in the latest gfs.

LadyFlumpalot Sun 24-Mar-13 18:22:37

Ok, thank you! I normally wouldn't mind a bit of an adventure, and a chance to stay off work if I got stuck the other side of the country, however, when it's a chance of getting stuck with the in-laws than I'd rather not risk it! grin

canutesauntie Sun 24-Mar-13 19:03:20

Slightly off topic, but I had to drive from Gloucestershire to Leicester yesterday. Woke up to heavy snow falling and wasnt keen to go but got on with it. Worst bit was getting down our lane!
Just wanted to say that the people keeping the main roads & motorways open were doing a brilliant job, loads of gritters/ snowploughs about so although the weather was vile the roads were ok.
Not so much other drivers - why dont people clear snow off the top of their cars? It ends up all over their back windows as they belt past in a slushy outside lane at 90,grrrr. Some real prizewinners out there.

mankyscotslass Sun 24-Mar-13 19:20:07

Dry grey and bitter cold here - I've been looking at all the snow photos on friends fb profiles, and they have piles of snow. Some are only a few miles from here, but we have nothing!

LillethTheCat Sun 24-Mar-13 19:32:14

Can I ask about the next couple of days please?

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 19:41:04

Canute, it's a real bug bear of mine. I can't imagine how dangerous it would be for a motorcyclist say if a chunk of snow came off a car at the wrong moment.

Lilleth, very cold and mostly dry. Some snow showers perhaps in central and eastern northern areas tomorrow, perhaps moving into the northern midlands for a time later on and into Tuesday morning. Wind chill will be a particular issue tomorrow with winds gusting 30-40mph for many.

missorinoco Sun 24-Mar-13 19:50:09

How do you get the snow off the roof? A genuine question, not a defensive post. I can't reach the middle of my bonnet, let alone the roof. The snow scraper and I don't cut the mustard.

mankyscotslass Sun 24-Mar-13 19:57:16

We use the long handled soft bristle floor brush(when we get enough snow to need it ...not this winter!)

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 24-Mar-13 20:00:23

<marks place to look out for Staffordshire Easter forecast>

missorinoco Sun 24-Mar-13 20:02:56

Good point, my outdoor brush will scratch the paint. I'm moving to where you are if you've not needed it this winter.

cumfy Sun 24-Mar-13 20:04:35

It was twenty-fucking-five degrees warmer this time last year.


<cries, wipes arse with ECWMF>

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