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Do you believe David Cameron & George Osborne

(33 Posts)
BritBrit Tue 24-May-16 07:32:46

So David Cameron & George Osborne have released several reports through the Treasury & Bank of England warning of economic chaos, hundreds of thousands of job losses & recession. But do you believe them or just view it as scaremongering?

The Treasury report from yesterday has been ridiculed in the press even by pro EU sources calling it fantasy land, scaremongering, fishy, economically flawed & says the report misses key issues

Sky- news.sky.com/story/1700769/so-whats-fishy-about-treasury-brexit-report

Guardian- www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/23/post-brexit-economy-george-osborne-eu-referendum

MrsBlackthorn Tue 24-May-16 09:07:57

Given almost every other respected economist has reached similar conclusions, on this occasion I'll break the habit of a lifetime and say I do.

Recessions, in particular, are very difficult to predict - so much of it is based on group psychology - but Brexit would be the kind of seismic shift which could easily kick-start one.

SocialDisaster Tue 24-May-16 09:10:45

I have been an out all along and this has made me think again. I am still out. We are in fanatical hardship anyway and I will take it to avoid someone like the far right Australia potentially ruling over the EU.

SocialDisaster Tue 24-May-16 09:11:12

Austrian

GiddyOnZackHunt Tue 24-May-16 11:08:02

No, I wouldn't believe either of them. But then I think both sides are winging it and saying anything that suits their cause. There are precious few facts being slung around.

Kennington Tue 24-May-16 11:11:53

No I don't trust them. I don't think they are capable of the maths for a a start
I think both sides are being hysterical
There are good and bad points to the EU
Nothing is perfect
A recession might happen short term - this does happen from time to time

angelos02 Tue 24-May-16 11:14:55

The moment I heard Harriet Harman say she was in the Bremain camp, I knew it must be a good thing to leave.

Tiggeryoubastard Tue 24-May-16 11:17:12

No. And I'm true blue. They sound increasingly desperate. They actually remind me of Blair and his lies before he invaded Iraq.

Calamara Tue 24-May-16 11:53:47

Cameron and Osborne sound increasingly like indoctrinated members of a religious cult who will spout anything to remain on message.

I have concluded that the EU is pretty similar to a religious cult. It is exclusivist, it proselytises in order to gain new members and it threatens to punish deserters.

The government is doing us a disservice by talking up the threat of leaving. If they remained calm and neutral, and instead emphasised the importance of democratic principles above all else then there would be far less likelihood of a problem. The EU is a human construct. It will rise and fall like everything else. The important thing is to see the fall before it comes and give it a soft landing.

In the event of an exit, I think a blip in share prices is probable. Some big international firms may also explore whether they need a stronger foothold in Europe, but they are likely to remain cautious until the terms of exit are sorted because the Eurozone is an ongoing mess. We are a huge market in and of ourselves and we have well established trading relationships all over the world. I am confident that we can flourish outside the EU even if Juncker succeeds in his threat to enforce punitive measures agains us.

And we have to ask ourselves how other people across Europe would respond to punitive measures against us. Juncker might think that they would gloat with him, or that he might succeed in suppressing the rise of nationalism. I think it is highly likely that punishing us for exercising our democratic will to leave would backfire quite spectacularly.

Motheroffourdragons Tue 24-May-16 11:58:35

I don't usually believe a single word they say, but on this occasion I do.

I fully expect the country to plunge back into recession following a leave result, we aren't doing that well in terms of growth anyway, so it won't take much. With recession comes job losses. So it all makes sense to me.

I would say though they have lost a lot of credibility over the past few weeks so people may not listen to them.

MaliceInWonderland78 Tue 24-May-16 11:59:09

I don't believe them. We've been here before with so-called experts telling us what will happen (remember what was going to happen if we didn't join the Euro?)

I'm voting out because nobody has made a positive case for staying. I've yet to hear anyone make a case for staying that isn't predicated on our inability to go it alone. I've got more confidence in this country. We are (when we set about it) truly world class.

I do think that for some voting in, they are voting to stay as it's some sort of shorthand to prove they're not racist - and set themselves against the likes of UKIP. That's just my opinion- based on discussing it with a handful of people who want to stay.

rumblingDMexploitingbstds Tue 24-May-16 11:59:48

I've learned never to listen to a word politicians say, just to look at the whole picture of what I've seen them do. Over time. Do Cameron and Osborne in your experience, consistently show integrity, honesty and full disclosure in their actions compared to what they say, and do they always act in the best interests of the country as a whole? Or in the best interests of themselves?

I'm out. This is scaremongering. They don't want off the gravy train, of course they don't. And if the vote is to stay and the EU has a full mandate from the UK - remember the brakes have always been on, they've always been wary to push because their evidence of having a legal mandate from the UK population was extremely dodgy - I suspect we ain't seen nothing yet. The UK being 'encouraged' to reconsider the Euro and the relocation of the world recognised City of London financial centre into Europe and out of the UK (out of British control) are two that come immediately to mind.

lavenderdoilly Tue 24-May-16 12:05:29

It's not about what two h"ere today gone tomorrow" politicians say. It's about the future of our country when they are long gone.
Brexit could well send us into recession. It may take us ages to bounce back and we'd need to shout pretty loud to get half decent trade agreements on our own. Which is how we'd try to recover. No thanks. I'll take Project Fear over Project Fantasy Island.

ThroughThickAndThin01 Tue 24-May-16 12:11:31

No, I don't believe them. I have a feeling there is a whole lot of bad stuff being buried right now which will come out gradually after June 23rd.

I'll take my risk with Project Fear, for the greater long term good. I'm voting out.

Bragadocia Tue 24-May-16 12:11:54

I am pro Europe myself and will be voting to remain, but this is despite the 'stay' campaign, rather than because of it. Whether or not their statements are based on truth, the negativity of the campaign is quite disappointing. There seems to be so little put out about why the EU is ideologically a good thing. Sometimes I wonder if the govt. statements will turn actually turn people against them; I have contempt for politicians who appear to be trying to frighten the public.

kirinm Tue 24-May-16 12:11:54

I think that the economy is bound to be unstable if we leave. It'll take years to establish trade deals and the uncertainty won't be welcomed by businesses and banks. It has already stalled the housing market. House prices need stabilising but a crash isn't going to do anyone any good let alone the economy.

I don't know if I believe the specifics being shouted about (by either side) but I do believe we are in for a difficult time if we do leave. There is zero detail about what is actually going to happen because nobody knows how trade deals will be negotiated. It's kind of ridiculous to think leaving will have no negative impact even if that is relatively short term.

Bragadocia Tue 24-May-16 12:13:31

Oooh, snap posting times kirinm, to the second! There must be a MN game in that.

SpringingIntoAction Wed 25-May-16 22:38:02

I'm voting out because nobody has made a positive case for staying.

I've been waiting to hear one for the last 20 years. Still waiting.

I am out and about a lot listening to people during this campaign. It is difficult to express just how much Cameron is distrusted - I have had several people tell me they fear their postal vote will be in some way negated. I have also had a few people tell me they voted for Cameron at the last election but would never do so again (some go as far as to say they will never vote Tory again).

It is going to be interesting to see what happens once this referendum is over as it may end up being a pyrrhic victory for Cameron. He may win the referendum but he may have caused an irreconcilable fracture in is party.

dulcefarniente Wed 25-May-16 22:58:52

No don't believe either of them. As for the predictions of a financial meltdown from economists and bankers - these would be self same people who failed to predict the global economic downturn. Not much of a recommendation.

We need to adopt the same attitudes to European rules and regulations as the rest of Europe i.e. go along with them when it is in our interests to do so and pay lip service to it when it doesn't. So wording big contracts in such a way that the company that gets it has to use British products and workers to protect our industry and skillbase rather than leaving it up to the bidders where they manufacture the goods. A policy which has had a very negative impact on our industry and not something that the French or Germans would allow to happen even though we are theoretically playing by the same rules.

Pangurban1 Wed 25-May-16 23:06:42

No, I don't believe them. However, I certainly wouldn't believe Gove, Fox , Hunt, IDS or Johnson either.

Roonerspism Wed 25-May-16 23:08:56

Nope, I don't believe it. Not at all.

It is in everyone's interests to resolve trade agreements etc ASAP.

I work in financial services so am perhaps more cynical than most. I effing hate the EU

dulcefarniente Wed 25-May-16 23:12:27

Springing but would Cameron really be that bothered about the impact on his party? He's made it clear that he wants to step down at the end of this Parliament so won't be around to deal with it for long. He's always given me the impression that being Prime Minister was just something he had on a checklist of things he wanted to achieve, rather than politics being a passion. Independently wealthy wife. Check. Prime Minister. Check. Famous friends. Check. High profile international role. Tbc... Lecture tours. Tbc...

Kummerspeck Wed 25-May-16 23:20:49

I don't believe them at all.

I think the EU have a lot of plans, going forward, which Britain will not like and we will have no power to resist after the referendum. Cameron has repeatedly denied all possibilities of an EU army yet there are suggestions that will happen quickly if we stay in which could affect our defence capabilities Link

ThoraGruntwhistle Thu 26-May-16 06:38:49

I think they're both lying despicable arseholes. I'm voting In though.

lljkk Thu 26-May-16 09:46:26

If Cameron & Osborne think leaving will be disaster, why shouldn't they be allowed to say so?

I decided my vote before Referendum day was set. The news just confirms what I had already figured out. By staying in the EU

We minimise extra yrs of austerity
We influence Europe to stay stable, prosperous & peaceful.
We may safeguard 820,000 UK jobs
We help prevent falls in growth and house prices
We avoid shocks related to uncertainty about political future
We remain highly attractive to foreign investors
We reduce severity of near-term recessions and risk of recession happening at all
We are part of a big powerful bloc that can hoist its weight around in negotiating trading deals

What's not to like?

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