What do they mean ‘social distancing in some form until the end of the year’?

[BuffaloCauliflower]

Just that really? What sort of level are they actually talking about? Surely the country will crumble, hospitality industry for one won’t survive if people can’t go out normally all summer and then Christmas time as well? The fallout will be far greater than the virus and the country will be bankrupt.

Anyone more knowledgeable than me able to contribute?

[BuffaloCauliflower]

I work for an amazing charity changing young people’s lives, we cannot do our work with them remotely.

[Bluntness100]

Everyone keep six feet apart, all social venues to put that in place, those who can’t not allowed to open Ie concerts etc. Schools, public transport etc will be the exception, but potential for face masks to need to be used.

[PeanutDouglas]

Well we don’t know do we? The government hasn’t explained the details. Therefore our guesses are as good as yours! I’d imagine it may mean vulnerable people being told to stay inside still, no theatres/football/group gatherings, restaurants and bars still closed, schools open , but certain activities banned, people told to work from home if you can and wear masks in public.

You’re right though. Economically this virus is devastating. Have you only just realised this ?!?!

[Sennetti]

Face masks which are reportedly of no value outside a covid19 ward ?

[Hotlungs]

Who knows. This is the problem when the government haven’t given any sort of exit strategy. In New Zealand they have created a traffic light system of restrictions. They haven’t said when these will happen but at least people can see some sort of road map ahead.

[cacaca]

Nobody knows. Posts like this are just causing people to speculate.

[PeanutDouglas]

@Sennetti the view on face masks and their efficacy is changing. Do you people not watch the news?!!!

[twinnywinny14]

They can’t say yet a sit will depend on the combinations of measure needed to keep rates low. There are many social distancing measures in place, schools shut, distancing and restrictions on supermarkets, distancing at work for those who are working, working from home, shops shut, pubs and restaurants shut, no large gatherings, not mixing households etc. Some will be relaxed over time, in what order seems to be what they are working out and each will be relaxed over time in stages with reviews of the impact and checking infection rates don’t rise too high. Therefore it will take months to relax them all. It does not mean that all the current measures are staying in place until the end of the year.

[EricaNernie]

Our team is working in different locations, i wonder if this will stay the same in order to be distant from each other

[midgebabe]

The country won't crumble

Some industries will be hit hard

They can't say exactly what restrictions because, as they have said, the aim will be to keep R0 bellow 1 and no one actually knows what is needed to do that in the UK, and it will probably have to be made up a bit as we go along. Change something and then check did it work as expected?

But note that means you need the ability to check it works before you start letting people do stuff . That's why things that are probably OK are not yet permitted. Cart before horse

institute.global/sites/default/files/inline-files/A%20Sustainable%20Exit%20Strategy%2C%20Tony%20Blair%20Institute%20for%20Global%20Change.pdf#page38

Gives an idea of the range of options available which is basic common sense.

[BuffaloCauliflower]

@PeanutDouglas no of course I haven’t just realised that? Where did I indicate that was a new thought? Just that a shut down of couple of months isn’t likely to be as devastating as 10-12 months of restrictions

[EricaNernie]

will schools and public transport be exclude from distancing? I dont think they plan for that to happen, i think the plan is for these to continue with distancing - somehow and masks if no distance can be achieved

[BuffaloCauliflower]

How can a school function socially distancing in this way though? It’s just not possible. No other countries are looking like they’ll be in extreme measures that long

[BuffaloCauliflower]

We cannot really run our programme social distancing, it wouldn’t work

[Friendsofmine]

Until we have a vaccine accessible to us our only option to keep the death rate low is ongoing social distancing.

So that means up to 18 months I expect of no leisure, sporting or music etc event unless people can be forcibly kept 2m apart. Schools will open.

We might have weeks where there are trade offs too such as we are opening X but closing Y this month.

It will all depend on how many people flout the rules as soon as they are relaxed too. If lots of people die 3 weeks after relaxing rules then we will go back into lockdown and the cycle will continue until we have established a vaccination programme.

That is my understanding of Prof Wittys comments.

[iVampire]

A number of other European countries whose outbreaks are a few weeks ahead of ours, will be easing wind restrictions. I think we need to see if there are any commonalities in their approaches.

We might however not see what effect it has on new infection rates if we’re only a couple of weeks behind (5-6 days to symptoms, range 2-14, then a further week or more to hospitalisation; so 2-3 weeks before new infection trend would show)

I hope we do get the chance to learn from others, and can adopt best-evidenced good practices, not lay out possible approaches now

[PeanutDouglas]

@BuffaloCauliflower what do you want people to say on this thread? We don’t know. We’re taking educated guesses, just like you could probably do. Until the government tells us what the exit strategy looks like we don’t know. Each country’s strategy will look different I’d imagine.

[BuffaloCauliflower]

@Friendsofmine but 9% of the workforce are in hospitality. That’s millions of people out of work if none of those events are going on. Of course the alternative is more people dying, and that’s not what we want either, but many people will die from poverty and mental illness in this scenerio foo

[TollyMoll]

I know schools are looking at all options that may arise. Even discussions on schools not returning properly in September, and if they do, with strict social distancing in place - to me this would probably suggest all children not returning.

[twinnywinny14]

I suspect there will be some relaxation of certain measures for a period of time then reviewed to see what difference it has made to infection rates, we know the cycle takes a few weeks in order to judge infections as it takes that time for someone who contracts it to end up in hospital which is how they work out the rate so therefore each measure that is relaxed will be in place for a set period before review and then maybe tighten it again or relax a further restriction, this will all take time and lots of it

[BuffaloCauliflower]

@PeanutDouglas I’m sure it will, it’s just a discussion on what that could look like. I’m aware we haven’t been told, if we’d been told it wouldn’t be necessary to speculate

[Friendsofmine]

I do think we are facing a financial depression with millions of people out of work yes. Just like after the Wall St Crash and many other times in the Western world.

[Northernsoullover]

@Sennetti read this about face masks. It might change your mind www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/

[PeanutDouglas]

@BuffaloCauliflower there is no reason to speculate. It’s pointless. How about just waiting to see!

[dottiedodah]

I think the Govt are being cautious and dont want to get peoples hopes up .Last weekend the DM ran headlines talking of "traffic light" easing of Lockdown .This was swiftly denied by the health minister and all the papers keep going on about when we will be "unlocked" .Surely it is better to be patient and wait and see than unlock us too early and have a second "wave" to deal with later on in the year?