Weather for the coming weekend 22nd-23rd

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Very briefly this morning with more this evening.

There is large uncertainty over this weekends weather. Parts of Ex-hurricane Nadine start to influence our weather, but the models are really struggling with what is a complex situation. If as it seems may happen, a deep low develops and moves up from our sw coasts, then parts could be in for extremely wet and very windy conditions especially on Sunday. The added sting to this sorry picture is that gfs then has the low sitting over the SW for days.

Look out for met office early warnings either today or tomorrow I think for Sunday.

More info and perhaps detail later...

[RubberNeckerNicker]

Novelty had definitely worn off by this morning - no fun doing the school run in thumping rain. It's just so unrelenting - the worst kind of rain!

I hope I didn't see you mention pesky showers for the weekend above - take it back!! Sunday will be nothing but unbroken sunshine!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

met office warnings including for gales in the SE.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I'm glad it was lovely for you :)
It was actually quite nice having the rain come down while it was all warm and cosy here. Novelty will wear off I'm sure.

[OhBuggerandArse]

'Fraid to say that up here it was fine and sunny, if a bit cold, and we managed a very nice party outside! Thanks so much for all the help with the forecasts - it would have been such a shame to have called it off and then realised we could have been outside after all. Tell you what, though, you could smell the weather changing in the air - had a definite 'rain coming' feel.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I'm really glad the party went well even if it was rather a squish. You are very welcome :)

[3duracellbunnies]

Well the party here went well, it was raining for most of it, so we stayed inside and had a 'how many people can you squeeze into a conservatory' party. We managed 11 children and 8 adults! Thank you for all the all too accurate forecasting.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

amber warnings been extended across to the IOW for heavy rain tonight.
Interestingly at the moment a dry slot seems to have formed around parts of the south coast. Feels cold though with temps of around 10c and lowering skies again.

Thanks gruber :)

[mankyscotslass]

trying to rain here at the moment, it's very dark.

[GloriaSmud]

Just started raining here, a little earlier than was expected I think.
All those lightning strikes off the south coast are showing up nicely here atm.

[mankyscotslass]

Hmm, that's odd! don't know what happened there.

Washing on the line as I type!

[mankyscotslass]

Hmm, that's odd! don't know what happened there.

Washing on the line as I type!

[mankyscotslass]

Dry here at the moment - a bit grey but warmer than yesterday.

I am hoping it stays dry long enough to get the boys football kits washed and out on the line after football this morning!

[gruber]

Update from south coast: persistent heavy rain since early hours, windy/gusty, thunder & lightning now rumbling around IOW/coast. Storm seems directly overhead. Not a nice day! Just have to wait and see how it develops now I suppose.

OYBBK- love reading your posts! Very interesting.

[ThePhantomPlopper]

Thunder and lightning on the IOW now. Love this weather!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

radar to see how close the rain is to you!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Apparently this weather system is called Karin!

[GloriaSmud]

I'm living dangerously and got the washing out at the moment! It's brightish but overcast.
My weather station though is saying that the pressure has dropped in the last few hours and that rain is due, so it's getting that right!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Think you should just about be ok til mid afternoon manky.

Rain has started here. Don't expect it to stop for any real length of time now until tomorrow afternoon.

[mankyscotslass]

Dry here at the moment - a bit grey but warmer than yesterday.

I am hoping it stays dry long enough to get the boys football kits washed and out on the line after football this morning!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Very grey and gloomy here. Sky feels full of rain.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Not a bad day up in Scotland. The low pressure seems to be moving more slowly northward than first programmed. Going to be a very wet day down South.

GFS does show some very heavy rain later tonight in the West Midlands/Wales and that will move north into Scotland tomorrow.

Winds still could be an issue tomorrow afternoon/evening for much of Scotland and southern coastal areas of England and that could remain an issue through Tuesday too. Nothing terrible showing at the moment but as I said in an earlier post with trees in leaf it takes less wind to bring them down.

Through this week lots more rain and wind to come for all at some time or another but by the weekend much calmer hopefully (though GFS does now show some pesky showers on sunday for much of England.)

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Morning all:) just looking through the models ATM. (Not too bad thanks Gloria :) )

[GloriaSmud]

Very much 'the calm before the storm' atm ~ it looks like we're going to have a nice sunrise in a bit!

[3duracellbunnies]

Have sorted out the house to have the party here, should have gone for next weekend by the sound of it. Still he's only 3, as long as there is cake, games and presents he won't care!

[GloriaSmud]

I've been watching this storm since it was mentioned on netweather a few days ago and been watching it on the weather charts. But I was watching a day or two ago the way the low, once it moved across the south on Sunday/Monday, sort of does a circle of the UK on into Tuesday. So it didn't really surprise me that the warnings when they were released earlier today, covered Tuesday as well (I'm slowly learning how to read these weather chart thingys!)
It does looks awful for the SW tomorrow and Monday ~ hope everyone keeps safe in those areas.

(How are you doing, OYBBK?)