GCSE predicted grades used for sixth form admissions policy - is there any standardisation?

[claptrapped]

A very oversubscribed selective sixth form near us uses GCSE predicted grades to rank applicants in order, and gives offers to the ones with the highest average grade - usually just those with various combinations of 8s and 9s. Once students have an offer, they don't have to achieve those predicted grades - they just need to achieve the minimum for the course (which is a 7 for most courses) - so they could easily end up scoring lower than students on the waiting list.

I'm wondering whether teachers use any standard method to predict grades? (If not, this sort of policy seems a bit unfair).

agree totally with @prh47bridge. Just hope it is worth it and you have the time to do it.
But still can't help feeling you doubt your DC will get the predicted grades and are thus trying to change the system to suit his/her ability.
If you did succeed, he/she would still be competing with all the others on his/her level.
Really? Is it worth it? Would he/she be happy there and work well there? You have already stated you think they are up their own arses.
I think we have enough knowledge now to know that although they are treading a fine line they will probably get away with it.
I really, really think you need to take a bit of a step back from all this and take a good look at where you think dc is with his/her likely achievement and which sort of sixth from would suit him/her best. You'll hate me for saying this I am sure but I am concerned you are projecting your desire for their academic achievement onto them rather than reflecting their actual achievement.
Are there no other decent schools in the area? Usually where there is one excellent one there are others which are very good compared to the national average. I get the feeling you are in London, is this correct? I can think of a few State sixth-forms that match your description there!

StanleySteamer - I didn't even say whether I had a child or not, never mind whether they are considering applying to this school. You are putting 2 and 2 together and getting 22. I suggest you take a step back and stop being so patronising. Prh47bridge's advice is valued around here because he gives objective advice based on the facts in front of him and doesn't try to read between the lines - maybe you could start doing the same.

well @claptrapped, if you do not have a child one does wonder what you are doing on Mumsnet. I think I am hardly making 2 and 2 add up to 22, your original post certainly implied that you were interested in the admissions policy of a sixth from and it is natural to imagine that this is because you have a real interest because you have a child who you may be thinking of putting forward to said school.

I am not in the slightest subjective, I maybe jump to some obvious conclusions, but that does not make me subjective. I am not trying to compete with anyone and my advice on many other threads to do with secondary education has been valued and appreciated by other posters, some through pms so I do not need you to tell me what to do or who to post like!

After doing all this research to help you answer the original question I get the feeling you are just shooting the messenger, mind you I did say you would probably hate me for it. Anyway, best of luck with whatever it is you are trying to achieve with this thread as it has suddenly become not obvious at all!!!!

I didn't say I didn't have a child either ... I gave no information about my personal circumstances at all. I asked a question about the technicalities of an admissions policy (which others managed yo answer perfectly objectively) and you decided to give me unsolicited advice about whether my child should apply or not. It was just irritating, and I felt the need to let you know that - you can choose whether to take the feedback on board or not.

Another possible angle is whether internal and external applicants are being treated the same. Certainly for the school I am aware of, all internal pupils get the offer to stay on with 8 7s or higher. There is no cut off based on predicted grades - only if the internal pupils get the 8 7s or not (i think there's a requirement around English + maths as well).

External applicants may get the same offer BUT only those with the highest predicted grades actually receive offers. Thus the barrier to an offer being received for an external applicant - predicted grades of 8s and 9s - is higher than that for an internal applicant.

Is that legal or not?

I was just wondering about prh's point that the academic requirements for internal and external applicants must be equal.

In the case I know of, the 'final' stage - the actual grades that must be achieved at GCSE to be able to accept a place - is equal for all applicants.

However, the external applicants have an academic requirement - the highest-ranked predicted grades - that is simply absent for internal candidates.

If this is a particular boys school that has recently started a mixed 6th form it may be worth adding the different selection criteria for boys/girls into the mix because there are rumours that it wasn't a level playing field last year and I don't think that they are allowed to differentiate on sex.

I understand where you are coming from OP, some schools give very optimistic GCSE predictions, others don't and pupils from the optimistic schools will receive offers based on grades they won't make and won't need to as they only need to meet the minimum entrance requirements. And those at other schools exceed their predictions and end up with better results than those who received the offers but don't get a place. I have nothing helpful to suggest but it is crap.

We’re looking at two grammar schools for dd. One offers based on predicted grades in a similar way to what you’re describing. Offers are made based on total predicted points starting with the highest scorer. There is also a minimum entry threshold but I guess you may have to be predicted more than that in reality to get an offer. However, if your actual GCSE score in August is more than four points lower than predicted you may lose the place to someone on the waiting list.

The other school doesn’t make offers until GCSE results day.

Our grammar doesn’t seem to look at predictions, no mention. Website not that clear though . They seem to need points over 6 GCSEs, with Eng Lang and maths obligatory. There are only a few places for external candidates, the vast majority are for internal. Specific A levels need6,7s.

"However, the external applicants have an academic requirement - the highest-ranked predicted grades - that is simply absent for internal candidates."

That's a good point cake. They're not allowed to put internals into the ranking because they are already enrolled - oversubscription criteria only apply to external candidates - yet the code does say that internal and external candidates need to be subject to the same academic entry criteria for sixth form.

I wonder if being a grammar school complicates it, as they're obviously allowed to have academic entry criteria in any year group, not just sixth form. If they ranked their sixth form applicants using the same test as their Y7 applicants there would presumably be no issue (though it probably wouldn't be very appropriate).

Quote from OP. "The policy actually says the ranking is based on "our assessment of" the predicted grades, which creates even more subjectivity."
See Cake's response "I understand where you are coming from OP, some schools give very optimistic GCSE predictions, others don't and pupils from the optimistic schools will receive offers based on grades they won't make" and won't need to as they only need to meet the minimum entrance requirements. And those at other schools exceed their predictions and end up with better results than those who received the offers but don't get a place.

So, guess what, some schools predict more optimistically than others and yet again, guess what, the school with the sixth form knows this and does something about it. And you call that "subjectivity". Seems to be one of your favourite words!

If for one nanosecond you could put yourself in the shoes of the Head of Sixth in this "up its own arse" school that you may or may not have a child whom you may or may not be interested in trying to get into, you might realise that he/she has a very difficult job.

He/she is going to be damned if he/she does and damned if he/she doesn't. This is why entrance exams are the only "objective" way of coping with this problem. But of course this obvious solution is not allowed.

So the poor Head of Sixth, (and I am actually beginning to feel a bit sorry for this person now), has to deal with predicted grades from a range of schools, some of which may be accurate and some of which may not. He/She is hidebound by the law on Admissions Code so dare not put a foot wrong while at the same time being forced to be fair and to be SEEN to be fair in allocating places.

So he/she, going by the track record of predicted grades from schools in the area, allocates offers to students according to their predicted GCSE grades. At the end of the day, what is this person doing wrong? We already know that once the place is offered the offer cannot be withdrawn unless "it is established that the offer was obtained through a fraudulent or intentionally misleading application." (Quote from the Admissions Code). So basically He/She has one chance to get it right based on fairly dodgy info.
I actually do get it. I may be the only person on this forum who does get it, but the school and the governors must get it too.

As I said a long way up the thread, if you have a child and if he/she needs to get into this school, then you have little choice but to play the game. If they don't get in then trying to get them in on some form of technicality is a hiding to nothing. They either deserve a place or they don't. Better to spend the time ensuring they get the grades than farting about with all this stuff. (End of rant).

StanleySteamer feel free to go and rant elsewhere and leave us to it.

you might realise that he/she has a very difficult job.

It's not that difficult Other sixth forms manage it perfectly successfully.

You're fairly new to MN I think Stanley - maybe read the room a bit first eh?

@titchy "You're fairly new to "MN I think Stanley - maybe read the room a bit first eh?" "Read the room..." What does that mean exactly?
I'm not a comedian.
I have huge experience in secondary education some of it very specialised and I use this to help people. But...

On MN it appears, some threads are bitchy as hell, some are extremely friendly and supportive and some are very informative.

And some are just plain weird, where it is obvious the OP knows the answer to the question but for some reason has to come on MN and bang on about it. To me this thread feels like it belongs on some forum for solicitors where the unpicking of the wording of a legal text is fun for the posters. OP has read the Admissions code, we think, and the answers are all there, so I have no idea what he/she is trying to achieve. Yes, I have only been on MN about 2 months, I normally spend my time on Land Rover forums, where posters genuinely offer remarkable help and advice, there is a bit of banter and people genuinely solve genuine problems. Nuff said.

This is why entrance exams are the only "objective" way of coping with this problem. But of course this obvious solution is not allowed.

What? There are certainly sixth forms with entrance exams - KCL Maths school has one.

I agree that basing offers on predicted grades is dubious, what is to stop a school with a prospective candidate predicting all 9s just to get them in?

Or what's to stop a school that has a policy of only promoting its own 6th form from predicting very low grades to stop them getting in?

Good point. My school is desperate to retain bums on seats and I could imagine them damping down on optimistic predictions if they thought it would help.

KCL Maths School is a free school. different rules apply.
Although as far as I can tell there is nothing in the Admissions code to prevent a Grammar school from having a test, a sort of 16+ should it so wish, they just don't seem to do it.
All selection procedures must be exactly the same for external candidates as for internal candidates, that is the law.
All maintained schools in England have to abide by the Schools Admissions code, but there is often reference to "except designated grammar schools"
In the Academy Admissions code I came across this "1.8 Admission arrangements must include an effective, clear and fair tie-breaker to decide between two applications that cannot otherwise be separated" which is interesting but it doesn't at first sight look as if the school in question has to abide by this.

However, "Grammar Schools (designated). These were the 164 schools that were designated under Section 104(5) of the SSFA 1998 as grammar schools. A ‘grammar school’ is defined by Section 104(2) of that Act as a school which selects all (or substantially all) of its pupils on the basis of general (i.e. academic) ability. At the time of publication, most grammar schools have converted to Academy status." (The time of publication was December 2014 and I haven't found another later version.)

Now if the school OP is talking about is a Grammar that has become an academy, then it must abide by this tie-break criteria.

So the OP could ask about this IF the Grammar has converted to an academy. But if not, then it looks like it is a designated grammar school whose admissions policy is different from that of other maintained schools although it still has to abide by them.

Admission arrangements must also be set, or determined, annually, and if they remain unchanged they must be consulted on at least once every 7 years. So OP could ask about this too.

It is along and complex document and I don't think it actually answers all possible questions as it covers all maintained schools in the country but I have read a lot of it in depth and tried to help as best I can.

All maintained schools in England have to abide by the Schools Admissions code

It also applies to academies and free schools even though they do not class as maintained schools. Their funding agreements require them to comply with the Code. However, sixth form colleges such as KCL Maths School are educational institutions and do not have to comply with the Code at all.

I have read a lot of it in depth and tried to help as best I can

Some of us have extensive experience of the Code which goes well beyond simply reading it and includes understanding how the Schools Adjudicator and the courts interpret the Code and the relevant legislation. I would imagine the OP was trying to tap into that expertise.

prh - What does BOA in Birmingham (which I think is a free school) come under that allows it to audition both for 6th forms places and KS4 places?

you have little choice but to play the game

Stanley, the point the OP is making - I think - is that this is not a 'game' that can be played.

The school is using a 'possibly somewhat objective' ranking / screening process - based on predicted grades - to make 6th form offers.

However, the student's current school has a very significant impact on this measurement, because there is no uniform way of coming up with predicted grades:

• Some schools set targets, not make predictions - so they use FFT + SATs results + chose one of a number of levels of 'ambition / challenge' to automatically generate target grades.
• Some schools give 'stretch' predicted grades.
• Others give 'minimum' predicted grades.
• Still others give grades based on mock exams which are full GCSE papers.
• Others give predicted grades based on internal exams which are only on work covered so far.

Even once this variation is negotiated, the motives of the current school will affect teh predicted grades to be used for this process.

• Some schools will want to be able to boast 'we send X of our students to the most selective 6th form each year', so will tend to give high predictions to be used for application.
• Others will want to retain their own students so will give low predictions to be used for application.

The 6th form, meanwhile, doesn't have to work very hard. They have an oversupply of applicants, almost all of whom will be able to reach the 'real' requirement of 8 7s, so they don't have to worry about these nuances. They COULD work really hard to analyse the prediction vs actual results patterns for each school and apply 'fudge factors' to each set of predicted grades. Or they could just take the predictions at face value, knowing that it's OK, they'll get lots of bright students whichever way they do this.

Meanwhile a very able student who goes to a school that sets 'minimum predicted grades' and deliberately understates predictions slightly to avoid losing able pupils to the more selective school, misses out on an offer while a less able student who goes to a school that sets 'aspirational' predicted grades, and likes to boast how many students go to the selective school each year, gets one.

Certainly in the school I know of, the 6th form intake is 'lumpy', with many students from some schools and many fewer from others, despite this not really matching the actual GCSE results profile from these different schools.

Yes cantkeepawayforever you have summed it up well. Thankyou.

@Comefromaway - BOA has a specific exemption in its funding agreement that allows it to select 100% of its pupils by aptitude for visual and performing arts.

Hit Post too early! With the exception of this exemption they must comply fully with the Admissions Code and relevant law.

@cantkeepawayforever, nicely put.

prh, if you know so much about it, might it be an idea to pm the op and put him/her out of his/her misery?

I know I am "Marmalade" but at least in the attempts of those of you who do not like marmalade, to put me down, you have at least been stimulated to write some very clear thoughts down.

Sorry you don't think it is a game, I was speaking metaphorically or ironically if you prefer. But honestly prh, do you think the OP has a chance of changing this school's admissions policy?

And as prh knows best, I'll stop reading the blessed codes and leave it all to him/her.