A level predicted grades

[SaltyMyDear]

School is refusing to predict DS the grades he needs to apply for the university course he wants to do.

Originally The teacher said he’d either get an A or an A but he wasn’t allowed to predict an A

Now he’s saying DS works not good enough to predict an A* - which I totally don’t believe given his earlier comment.

Is there any way I can reason with school so they don’t destroy his dreams?

I’m aware how hard it is to get an A* I’m also aware why he ‘only’ got an A in his mocks this year and why he should do better next year.

[ReservoirDogs]

Perhaps the school will not over predict because it means that the school is then not trusted by the unis when their predictions arrive and it thus disadvantages their whole cohort.

Believe me there is nothing more that a school would like to do than get Oxbridge offers which it can then use in their promotional literature. I am afraid OP you might just have to adjust your expectations of your child and that the school are trying to use the kindest route of saying he may not be performing at the level you hope him to be.

I am unsure why a gap year is not possible? If your DS is going to get the grades you anticipate he can apply next year with the grades and then thumb his nose at the school!

[noblegiraffe]

5/6 UCAS predicted grades are wrong, it really isn’t a science, it’s a guesstimate, especially early in Y13 when most predicted grades are set, and now without solid AS results which count towards 50% of the final grade to go on as well.

The teacher isn’t saying that the DS isn’t capable of an A, the teacher is saying that he’s not allowed to predict him a A because of this 14% figure. This means that the DS’s A-level predictions are not based on his performance, but on the A-level predictions of other students.

[Bluntness100]

That's not quite rhe whole story giraffe, the teacher has said he has only a thirty percent chance of achieving it, that's quite low and clearly as such wouldn't be an accurate prediction, they are saying he's much more likely to get an a.

I'm fairly sure if they thought he had more chance of getting it, he'd be in the 14 percent.

As said, 14 percent predicted a star is always quite high. I think if there was a case for him there rhe school would go over the 14 percent, all schools love to boast of oxbridge applicant success stories, the fact they won't and are saying it's 30 percent indicates they really don't feel a star would be an accurate prediction.

[ErrolTheDragon]

The only sure way to not get an offer from Cambridge is to not apply, and he has 4 other UCAS choices. Also, they have their own aptitude tests (not sure if this is all subjects?) which I believe they introduced because of AS being essentially scrapped and not wanting to rely solely on grades predicted by schools.

I'm pretty sure they know the outcome of that test before they have to make their UCAS choices (ie if they fluff it they won't waste a choice) so maybe encourage him to sit the test and see how he fares, in a 'nothing ventured, nothing gained' spirit?

[SaltyMyDear]

Errol that’s what DS has decided. To apply anyway.

Bluntness 14% isn’t a lot in a selective 6th form college. Every single person came up with an A or A* in GCSEs.

Noble thanks.

DS doesn’t want me to make a formal complaint but I very much want to. It is totally not fair. He got an A on a mock that was on the same day as his maths AS exam. There’s every reason to expect he’ll do better next year with both an extra year of teaching and dropping the one subject (maths) that he found hard.

I want to complain not because I think my DS is a genius. But because it isn’t fair.

This school makes a big deal about their oxbridge and med school programs - but don’t mention anything about how many people get accepted. And I forgot to ask.

For some totally bizarre and unexplainable reason very few kids go onto med school or oxbridge - because they actively discourage them from applying.

This is a (state) selective school that should get lots of kids to oxbridge and med school - because around 50% of their very large cohort go to this college with the aim of getting into med school or oxbridge.

[noblegiraffe]

Bluntness but you’re assuming that the ‘30%’ and the ‘14%’ have any scientific accuracy behind them. Neither do. The teacher thinks the OP’s DS has a shot at an A. There are reasons to think he will do better next year. If he’s not predicted an A, he can’t apply to Cambridge. If they do predict him an A* and he doesn’t get it then....nothing really for the school, and so long as he has an insurance offer he’ll be fine.
Plenty of other schools will be predicting their bright kids optimistic grades in order to open that first door for them.

Where did this 14% come from?
Why are the school discouraging bright kids from applying to Oxbridge? It’s all very odd.

[noblegiraffe]

Is it an academy or a LA maintained school?

[SaltyMyDear]

It’s a catholic school.

Was times best 6th form in the country or something like that - and this is what is trotted out over and over again.

A level class sizes of 30 pupils.

Very few extra curricular clubs.

DS and another girl represented the college in a national debating competition where they got through to the final round and lost to Eton.

I think every other school would be encouraging him to apply. And I can’t understand what is going on here.

Besides the fact I’m sure they don’t understand contextual offers. You can’t compare DSs secondary school to the catholic feeder schools. Especially the girls catholic feeder schools.

Incidentally because the college is very selective there are far less boys than girls there. Because boys tend to do worse at GCSEs than girls.

[Bluntness100]

For some totally bizarre and unexplainable reason very few kids go onto med school or oxbridge - because they actively discourage them from applying

This makes absolutely no logical sense. I'm sure you must be able to see that. If this is what the school boasts about why would they discourage capable kids who they think have a shot at it not to apply. In fact, I think you're going further than that, I think you're insinuating they make the predictions so they can't.

It makes no sense. I think you should talk to the head, because with the best will in the world I cannot see how what you're posting is accurate.

Schools do discourage pupils who they think will not achieve the grades and are sure won't get in not to waste their time applying, sure, that's the way it should be, but that is not the same as discouraging kids who would have a shot at it, or trying to set rules to prevent it.

Why would they do that? It serves them no benefit at all.

[noblegiraffe]

Schools do discourage pupils who they think will not achieve the grades

And this is fine. It’s not normal to have a quota of A grades to predict and then no more. ‘Sorry I can’t predict you an A because you haven’t a hope of getting it’ is fine. ‘Sorry, I can’t predict you an A* because I gave the last one to Johnny’ isn’t.

[DumbledoresApprentice]

He can apply to Cambridge without an A prediction. GCSE results and results on entrance exams will be far more important than the predicted grade. If he has strong GCSEs he should focus on preparing for the entrance test for his subject and apply anyway. The absence of an A prediction shouldn’t prevent him being interviewed.

[titchy]

because it means that the school is then not trusted by the unis

Errr no that really doesn't happen. Admissions tutors have hundred of forms to work through - the idea that they'll look at the school code and remember that one under predicted last year! The predicted grade is taken at face value, along with the knowledge that they'll mostly be inaccurate.

[Bluntness100]

It’s not normal to have a quota of A grades to predict and then no more*

I totally agree, that's why she needs to speak to thr head. But it also needs to be tied to the fact the teacher thinks there is a seventy percent chance the student won't achieve an A*. If you look at that fact in isolation then yes it's right not to predict it.