Predicted Grades for UCAS

[LibraryBook]

Just trying to understand how different teachers/schools arrive at predicted UCAS grades for A2, to put on the UCAS form?

I'd be grateful for any explanations.

[ontheallotment]

"Do the grade boundaries lower if there are fewer students scoring very high marks?"

I think they may do. Since a year or two ago something called 'comparable outcomes' rather than criterion referencing has been used to set grade boundaries. This is supposed to ensure that a year group isn't disadvantaged or advantaged compared to previous year groups especially when there is a syllabus or exam structure change. So if they use the same methodology this year, the final grades should be similar to before even without the resits. But there may be some political pressure to reduce them.

[titchy]

It's ABB now library. And it won't be lowered to BBB in the near future.

[friday16]

"Although prospectuses for 2014 are asking for A*AA-AAB for RG universities, which would suggest that lots of places may remain unfilled, come results day."

You really don't have much of an idea how this stuff works, do you?

[secretscwirrels]

noblegiraffe It's dead man's shoes to get to teach it Off topic slightly but is that really true? I thought there was a shortage of FM teachers?
DS1 is aiming to teach FM.

[noblegiraffe]

Grade boundaries change according to the difficulty of the paper. They decide how difficult the paper is in part by looking at how students actually did on it compared to how they were expected to do. So yes, if fewer students than expected score high marks, this could lower the grade boundaries.

[noblegiraffe]

secret I meant at my school it's dead man's shoes. I expect if I changed schools I could find one that would be happy to let me teach it. In my department, I've been teaching 8 years and am the least experienced, so well down the list. My maths department is pretty unusual though.

[LibraryBook]

friday16 - Of course I know how it works. I'm just saying it would be absolutely absurd if grades fell hugely and universities were thus unable to fill their programmes. There has to be a bit of a fit between A level results and university admissions.

[friday16]

"I'm just saying it would be absolutely absurd if grades fell hugely and universities were thus unable to fill their programmes"

Why do you believe that a fall in grades would result in universities being unable to fill their programmes? Do you believe that universities are unable to, and indeed do not (a) offer or (b) confirm at below the general offers listed in the prospectus?

Suppose, for the sake of argument, that A2 results dropped by two grades between now at October 2014. Do you think that (a) universities would just confirm places for students holding firm offers but who missed their grades (b) universities would take unfilled places into clearing and accept whatever grades were going or (c) universities would shrug their shoulders and lose huge piles of money? Reality is (a) for universities holding a lot of firms, and (b) for universities holding a lot of insurances. (c) will never happen again. The situation with Southampton (and others) last year was because of misplaced machismo about "we're so popular we never go into clearing". This year, the entire Russell Group went into clearing, and announced it before results were published.

[LibraryBook]

titchy - yes, I meant ABB, thanks. But there was some discussion about it being lowered to BBB.

this is worthwhile reading

and this

[LibraryBook]

friday - eh? That is what I've been saying.

[LibraryBook]

friday16 - The entire Russell Group didn't go into clearing. The following Russell Group universities had no need to enter clearing in 2013 Ox, Camb, Imperial, LSE, UCL, Bristol.

[IceBeing]

Not really sure what this thread was aimed at but I do have a question for teachers....

Recent stats show that students in R group unis have a lower average UCAS tarrif than students from state schools. The obvious implication is that indy schools over predict more than state.

Similarly there is good evidence that gender bias, and race bias occur (eg girls doing physics don't get the same predictions as boys and ethnic minorities do badly for predictions across the board.

The question is what can be done about it?

We (admissions tutors) can't ignore predicted grades, we can't bias against students from indy schools our hands are tied....so how can we fix this and start getting better diversity in RG unis?

[LibraryBook]

Independent schools are actually more accurate at predicting grades than maintained schools.

And UCAS tarriff is not a very good guide. An A in A level further maths for example is worth the same UCAS points as an A in general studies when you are implying to Imperial for Physics.

RG universities don't admit using UCAS points tariff, normally, they ask for specific grades, often in specific subjects.

[titchy]

Library the THES and Which may want to discuss lowering SNC to BBB but HEFCE have been told not to, and until we get a change in Gov and policy BBB unlikely.

RG having lower tariff than others - haven't seen the data (source?) but RG applicants don't have as big a need to put down all their grade 8s. They may well also take more students with non-tariff qualifications - overseas or the pre-u for example.

[noblegiraffe]

Indy schools are 'better' at predicting grades not because of any special skill but because they predict more A/A* grades due to selective intake and these are easier to predict. State schools are good at predicting the top grades too.

[titchy]

Actually look at the league tables and order by entry standards, Oxbridge imperial etc right at the top!

[Dominodonkey]

Please don't make unfounded accusations op. I have only ever had one user name and this is it.

[LibraryBook]

Dominodonkey - sorry.

[LibraryBook]

titchy - what ARE you talking about? NObody said RG have a lower tariff. Of course the better unis have higher entry standards. But it is possible that someone could have 750 UCAS points (more than most of those doing medicine at Oxford) and not have a hope in hell of receiving a RG offer let alone an offer from Oxford. You must get that? What is your degree from by the way, and what subject?

[titchy]

Icebeing said RG students have lower tariff in her15.52 post.

[titchy]

If the rest of your post is directed at me I agree with you RG entry standards (and tariff scores of entrants) is much higher!

Not sure why my (or any other posters') degree or alma mater is relevant.

[LibraryBook]

titchy - I'm just wondering what it is you teach?

[noblegiraffe]

Why are you asking? I wondered why you asked me if I teach further maths earlier!

[IceBeing]

I said that students admitted to RG unis have different grades depending on what sort of school they came from. The implication being that it is 'easier'to get in if you come from an independent school. It is also 'easier' to get in if you are male and white (to physics anyway).

This has nothing to do with the difficulty of the offer (we offer AAA to everyone essentially) it has to do with us being more likely to select people with higher predicted grades. Given a bunch of students who all actually got AAA, the Indy students had higher predicted grades than the state school...the men had higher predicted grades than the women and the ethnic minorities had lower predicted grades than everyone else.

This is likely at least in part down to bias on the part of teachers predicting grades (either conscious or unconscious).

Does that make it clearer?

[BeckAndCall]

I find your analysis fundamentally flawed, icebeing for a number of reasons including:

As an admission tutor at an RG university you do have the ability to make contextual offers if you feel grades are over or under predicted in one group of applicants - in many courses the stated admissions criteria shows a range;

Your argument is based on the assumption that independent schools DO over predict - and several people on here, myself included, have illustrated that their schools use only the AS grades as a predictor and do not inflate - so there is no cross sector pattern;

Your argument that a male makes stand more chance of getting on a physics course flies completely in the face of the Women in Science initiative which is moving the dial on that statistic - which is in any way majorly affected by the number of applicants in the group, rather than differential offers within the group;

And it ignores the fact that many students in independent schools are already predicted to over achieve the offers made to them ( eg achieving A*AA against an AAB offer) whereas the average achievement in state schools is lower, so students arriving from state school are more likely to have hit the offer spot on. So that's why they have lower average grades - not because it was harder to get an offer in the first place.

But is is very hard to generalise about 24 universities offering thousands of courses to tens of thousands of students, so anybody else's take on the situation is just as likely to be valid as mine. And there's a whole industry out there trying to analyse all of these things one way or another and I just don't accept that it's clear cut.