UKIP second in Eastleigh...anyone from Eastleigh care to comment?

[SequinsOfEvents]

Bit tongue in cheek but wowsers! 11,000 votes! Crikey!

I am living abroad at the moment and am pleased to be! Can't come home with current political situation....how depressing

[Toadinthehole]

I expect the UKIP vote will increase a bit, but it won't be anything like their share of the vote for Euro elections. By-elections always see a big protest vote, because people who vote in them aren't voting for a new government. Sure, UKIP did well in Eastleigh. Respect have also done well in by-elections: so, I recollect, did the BNP some years ago.

UKIP support won't get unlocked without a change to Britain's electoral system. Given that even AV - the very modest alternative to FPTP - was rejected, there isn't going to be any change any time soon. Most UKIP sympathisers will simply back the Tories because they won't believe that the UKIP candidate will be at all likely to win. Also, most UKIP candidates won't have many credentials: the party will probably put up whoever it can get to stand.

I will laugh and laugh and laugh if the Tories' vote gets split by UKIP. The Tories were against AV because they knew they had the most to lose from it - LD/Lab support swing voters being far more numerous than LD/Con. If AV had been adopted, UKIP first preference votes would mostly have redistributed to the Tories. As it is, any increase in the UKIP vote will simply be at Tory expense, and (hopefully) cost them seats.

[ironman]

The Tories used UKIP colours on the leaflets in the Eastleigh election, did anyone else notice? Still did not do them any good! I don't agree this was a protest vote, as 900,000 voted UKIP in the last election. Many people are sick and tired of the three main parties, and as many agree with the views of UKIP
(particularly on immigration) the electorate will vote for them more and more in the coming years.

[DolomitesDonkey]

Not EU-related, but has anyone else seen the figures about those claiming UK pensions who are aged over 100? Over a million a week going to countries for OAP's over 100. Incredible. Either a few death certificates need to be chased up or we need to learn how they're all so damned healthy!

[niceguy2]

there are many people who can't stomach the fact that someone from outside the UK is claiming child benefit.

Unfortunately we have a lot of stupid people in this country.

[vesela]

Social housing is one of the biggest factors limiting labour mobility as it is - why make it worse by strengthening the need for a local connection?

[fiftyval]

alemci - our district council has recently introduced a policy of adjusting the housing list by prioritising people with a local connection. They had figures which showed that over 25% of people on the exisiting list had no local connection whatsoever. Part of the problem of managing the list is that people can get themselves on it via the internet and alot of people just add themselves on regardless of the likelihood of getting a house ( you have to bid when houses come up and then your 'banding' is looked at to decide who gets the house). Many people don't bother bidding but remain on the list.

[alemci]

yes I know Vesela but I still think the people who live in the area and have been paying council taxes or their parents have should get priority in social housing not newcomers who have been in the country for a short while. This is what has partly caused such as housing shortage in social/council housing.

I am not saying this is necessarily caused by EU countries either

[vesela]

Dolomites Donkey - the figures from February 2011 are that 38,000 EU nationals are claiming JSA, of which 13,000 are from countries that joined in 2004 or later.

That concerns JSA only, of course - as we know, there are many people who can't stomach the fact that someone from outside the UK is claiming child benefit.

Toad - sounds very likely to me!

alemci - They do have ties with GB. They're in the EU.

[DolomitesDonkey]

What are the actual figures for welfare consumption from non-UK nationals?

I ask because I live in NL which this week released figures indicating that there are currently 600,000 registered EU workers here, 150,000 from "former eastern block". Of these (600k), only 21,000 are claiming welfare! That is an incredibly low figure - far lower than the general population I'm sure!

We have ID cards here - and at first I HATED them, felt it was an intrusion on my personal life and circumnavigated (i.e., didn't get one!) for the best part of a decade. Good luck getting access to services without evidence you're entitled.

[Toadinthehole]

I reckon it'll be LD&Lab in government after the next election. Sounds odd but here's why.

Labour will take the LD vote in every constituency it holds or is close to gaining. So it will gain marginals from the Tories and the LDs.

The LDs will mostly hold off the Tories in the south, aided by a doubling in the UKIP vote and some tactical votes from Labour supporters. Their vote will collapse elsewhere.

In Scotland the SNP will increase their vote but make no gains, while the Tories will lose their single seat there.

Toad has spoken.

[niceguy2]

sorry but this is going back to Feudal times - restricting the free movement of people within an area

What rubbish. Noone is saying you can't move. If you want to move you are completely free to do so. The only difference is that the taxpayer won't fund said move.

Funny how there was a massive hoo-ha not so long ago over the subject of ID cards. Now we suddenly seem to be quite receptive to the idea of having to show proof of identity!

Personally I think ID cards are a sensible thing to have. I objected to the last ID card system quite simply because it was stupid and too expensive.

The proposed system was going to cost £5.6billion. And we all know what happens to the costs of govt projects. They never come in under budget. We were going to have to store our biometrics onto the card. OK....except noone but only select govt agencies was going to have the biometric readers. So you go into a bank or take out a mobile phone contract. Proof of ID was going to be based upon the photo! So in my view £5.6 billion+ was not a sensible use of money to get a card which 99.9% of the time I'd have to rely on the photo anyway.

Propose a sensibly priced system and I'd be all for it.

[lrichmondgabber]

I see a possible Labour led Coalition after the general election. Suit Lib-Dem activists better

[olgaga]

Yes but without additional costly layers of bureaucracy and inconvenience, and identity cards, would any of that be achieved?

Funny how there was a massive hoo-ha not so long ago over the subject of ID cards. Now we suddenly seem to be quite receptive to the idea of having to show proof of identity!

[alemci]

Yes I think priority should definitely have been placed on the people who have lived in the area and possibly their parents/family etc have paid the council tax/rates to the local authority.

I have heard from so many different sources that this hasn't been the case with local housing departments and I think the locals have been discriminated against. What other country would allow people who have no ties with GB to be put first or before people who had been on the housing list for years'?

Why has this taken so long to realise and why was it ever allowed in the first place. No wonder there is such a housing shortage and high property prices.

[Talkinpeace]

for a year ....
so can many immigrants ....

sorry but this is going back to Feudal times - restricting the free movement of people within an area

what is your diameter ?
by county, by borough

kite flying, unenforceable rubbish

BYE

[niceguy2]

Well in your example if you stay in the town you studied in then you can demonstrate you were educated in the area.

If you return home you will be able to demonstrate family in the area and therefore have links to the area.

If you get a FT job in a new area then you should be able to move and get whatever support is available.

[Talkinpeace]

niceguy2
How many graduates stay in the town they went to Uni and then look for work?
Of the people I was at Uni with, none of us live near our parents now.

[olgaga]

If people are that concerned about benefits being sucked up by immigrants then this may be the price which has to be paid.

That may be so, but the practicalities rule it out.

[niceguy2]

Olgaga. I understand that the rule applies to UK citizens. I also understand that it could create some immobility in the labour market.

But this is the real world and every action has a consequence. There isn't a magic wand solution. If people are that concerned about benefits being sucked up by immigrants then this may be the price which has to be paid.

The only other option is to leave the EU which would be akin to the proverbial sledgehammer to crack a nut.

Plus I have to question how many UK people would move into an area they have no ties to and expect the state to support that move. So put another way. If I am born & bred in Manchester, how common would it be for me to decide to move to Leeds, a city which I have no ties with and without having found a full time job first.

[Xenia]

Y,es it is absolutely amazing how generous we are and yes I know the new benefits cap/limit when it comes in of £26,000 net of tax (£34k gross if you were a worker you would need to earn to receive what the state gives free for a parent with children) will include housing benefit but gosh plenty of very very hard working mumsnetters work full time all year and earn less than that and pay for childcare.

(I'm not particular anti immigration but am anti benefits tourism. China as a big problem that you can only claim healthcare and schooling in your home state so all those millions who move for work with China are trapped by that rule. it is certainly an international issue).

[olgaga]

Talkin, quite right to point out that for most people, claiming benefits is a safety net, not a career choice.

[Talkinpeace]

A friend of mine gets very nearly £25,000 in benefits per year.
She has not worked for 15 years and will not work until both her husband and daughter die of the crippling illness from which they suffer.
Want to swap places with her?

[olgaga]

I might add, there are 5.8 million benefit claimants. 67,000 households will be affected by the benefits cap - 80,000 adults and 190,000 children.

[olgaga]

Exactly, Mamma.

All this is just hot air.

By the way, Xenia you do realise that £26,000 includes housing benefit, and most people who are anywhere near the cap are living in London?

[MammaBrussels]

So a UK citizen moving to an new area to take up a job, where they had no record of residence, education or family links, would also fail to meet the criteria.

Which also creates geographical immobility in the labour market. Those who are unemployed will find it harder to move to where the work is - Brit or not.